419
FXUS64 KBMX 300120
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
720 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 709 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches expected across
   central Alabama tonight through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight)

Issued at 709 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025

Looking at radar one might expect some high PoPs. However most of
the precipitation is not reaching the ground in the state. There
have been some reports in the northwest in which trace amounts
have been reported. Dewpoint depressions are still 10+ degrees F,
so it will take some heavier rain to actually get accumulation at
the surface. There is a larger rain shield in MS that will move
into the west by 9 pm. Rainfall looks a little heavier and
dewpoint depressions are less than 3 degrees F, so this batch
will likely begin to accumulate as it works into the state.
Went ahead and raised PoPs a touch across the west for the evening
and overnight.

16

Previous discussion:
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025

We do still expect a lull in the steady rain late Sunday into
very early Monday, as the cold front stalls out and the lead
shortwave lifts out to the northeast. However, the next shortwave
trough will follow close behind, and induce an overrunning rain
event Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. We will be on the
cold side of the airmass, with the surface low moving eastward
right along the Gulf coast. Cold rain, especially Monday night.

The rain comes to an end later in the day on Tuesday, and surface
high pressure builds back into the southeast states. Beyond that,
forecast confidence nosedives, as global models continue to
diverge on how the next series of shortwaves is handled.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025

VFR conditions can be anticipated across central Alabama TAF sites
through this evening. An approaching cold front will ultimately
lead to lowering ceilings and increasing chances of rain late
tonight into early Sunday. The moistening process will be top-
down, with ceilings following suit. At some point, the rain will
come down hard enough to bring cloud bases down below 2500 ft
(northern sites by 10 to 14z, MGM 15 to 18z, AUO 18 to 21z). Once
the ceilings drop, they will likely stay that way well beyond the
end of the current 24-hour forecast period.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A series of upper level disturbances will bring at least two
waves of rain to central Alabama late Saturday night through
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     42  52  30  53 /  60  70  10  50
Anniston    44  53  34  55 /  40  70  20  50
Birmingham  45  52  34  53 /  60  70  20  50
Tuscaloosa  45  53  35  53 /  70  70  20  60
Calera      45  56  36  56 /  50  70  20  50
Auburn      44  61  42  58 /  10  50  20  40
Montgomery  43  61  44  61 /  10  50  20  40
Troy        44  66  45  63 /   0  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16