Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
019 FXUS64 KBMX 092358 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 558 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 - Medium chances for fog with visibilities below one mile in southeast portions of Central Alabama overnight. Temperatures will be below freezing in some areas but probability of any impacts from freezing fog is very low at this time. - Seasonable temperatures expected this week with little chance for rain until the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Overnight) Issued at 556 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 A blob of low clouds hung around most of the day over portions of the Chattahoochee Valley, and is currently shrinking across SW Georgia. NAM forecast soundings, HRRR data, and HREF probabilities indicate medium chances for fog developing in our southeast counties overnight near this enhanced low-level moisture area. With temperatures below freezing in some of these areas, especially Russell and Barbour Counties, if visibilities drop below 5/8 mile it would meet the definition for freezing fog. Will monitor overnight for any need for a dense fog advisory/freezing fog advisory. Given the warm ground conditions, chances for any impacts are very low at this time, with just a slim chance of an isolated slick spot on a bridge. 32/JDavis Previous discussion: (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 As of writing, the sun is finally out across Central Alabama. However, it will be short-lived as a swath of low to mid level clouds is pushing into the NW part of the state as a H5 vort max swings through. These clouds shouldn`t linger for too long as ridging quickly builds into the region. Increased subsidence and limited moisture will keep us dry through the remainder of the work week. A weak cold front slides through Wednesday into Thursday. It should pass through with little impact as there will be limited moisture available. Low to moderate rain chances return to the forecast over the weekend as our next upper trough slides across the eastern CONUS. We will see a slight uptick in moisture as a warm front moves north on Saturday. A cold front kicks south Saturday night into Sunday. Our best rain chances come during that timeframe as low level moisture convergence is maximized. Currently not expecting much in the way of thunder as instability will be lacking. We quickly dry out in the wake of the front as weak ridging builds in. To quickly touch on temperatures, a warming trend will kick in through the week with highs in the 60s for Friday and Saturday. With that said, we will see a brief cool down on Thursday but we quickly warm back up. Another cool down is in store behind Sunday`s FROPA. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 Small blob of low clouds in SW Georgia continues to shrink, but is indicative of enhanced low-level moisture there and into southeast portions of Central Alabama. Beginning to see some better signals for fog development from the HRRR/NAM/HREF probabilities with medium chances of impacting MGM/AUO. Have included some MVFR vis towards sunrise Wednesday at those sites with a TEMPO of IFR. There should be enough wind to prevent fog formation elsewhere. A dry cold front moves through on Wednesday resulting in gusty westerly winds up to 25kts. Low-level moisture will be enhanced along the front but probability of any MVFR cigs Wednesday afternoon is low. 32/JDavis && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs will generally remain above 40% for the next several days with little to no rain chances through the remainder of the week. We`ll see southerly flow today, shifting more westerly then northerly with our next frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday. Low to medium rain chances return Saturday night into Sunday as another cold front moves through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 31 58 29 50 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 34 58 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 36 58 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 34 61 33 54 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 33 60 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 34 58 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 32 61 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 31 62 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...32/JDavis AVIATION...32/JDavis