314
FXUS64 KBMX 071759
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1159 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1146 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025

 - Temperatures into next weekend will again fall to below
   average, with an extended period of below freezing nights
   possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025

Very thick cloud cover remains draped across the region, and will
likely remain in place for the next day or two. The bulk of the
moisture in our airmass is contained in this shallow layer of
clouds. Given it`s proximity to the surface, some showers and
drizzle will be possible this afternoon, before more organized rain
chances move in by tonight. This rain will be associated with the
trough and cold front we`ve been mentioning for the last few days,
with dry air moving quickly behind it. As such, rain chances will
exit the forecast until closer to next weekend.

Temperatures will slightly warm into the middle of the week, with
Wednesday and Thursday still being our warmest days of this forecast
period. However, this will all be ahead of a major pattern shift,
setting the stage for perhaps our coldest stretch of temperatures
yet. On Wednesday, a very deep low and trough will skirt the
Great Lakes, bringing a frigid airmass with it. Over the next
several days, a series of deep lows will follow similar paths,
with each low dropping farther south than the other. This first
system will work through our region on Thursday night, with the
next big push over the Midwest taking place on Friday. Lows on
Friday and Saturday will be well below freezing, with some
locations falling into the teens. Given the depth of this cold air
advection, afternoon highs on Saturday may not even climb out of
the 40`s for some people.

Now, with all that being said, this forecast is tied to the depth of
the trough, and how far south it drops. So if one of these lows
doesn`t deepen enough, or if one of them doesn`t materialize, then
the trough would stay farther north, keeping temperatures
"warmer." However, there is already incredible consistency here.
So even if it doesn`t get as cold as advertised, we will still be
looking at well below average temperatures across the region come
this time next weekend.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN DEC 7 2025

Low clouds will linger most of this TAF period, with widespread
MVFR/IFR CIGs through 08/01z. However, IFR/LIFR CIGS will overtake
the overnight hours, with them settling in past 08/03z. Rain and
reduced VIS will also be possible past 08/03z, with these
conditions lingering past 08/10z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain remains in the forecast through tonight, as drier conditions
are anticipated through the middle of the week. With that being
said, MinRH values will remain above 50% into next weekend, and
given all the recent rainfall, fire weather concerns will remain
little to none for the next six days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     53  38  51  26 /  10  60   0   0
Anniston    57  40  51  29 /  10  70   0   0
Birmingham  54  41  51  29 /  10  70   0   0
Tuscaloosa  57  40  53  29 /  10  70   0   0
Calera      58  40  53  29 /  10  70   0   0
Auburn      56  44  55  34 /  30  60   0   0
Montgomery  56  45  56  31 /  20  60   0   0
Troy        56  45  56  31 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/