606
FXUS64 KBMX 081136
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
536 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

-  Areas of dense fog will continue across central Alabama this
   morning.

-  There is a medium to high chance of freezing temperatures
   Sunday night, focused on the northern half of Central Alabama.
   A freeze across all of Central Alabama is expected Monday
   night. Breezy conditions Monday morning will result in wind
   chill values as low as the upper 10s for the northern third of
   Central Alabama.

-  Breezy conditions combined with low relative humidities may
   result in increased fire danger on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 123 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

Today and Tonight:

Broad troughing covers much of the central and eastern CONUS,
anchored by a deep upper low near Hudson Bay. A cold front is
currently moving into the area and will stall out this morning.
Several bands of showers and a couple storms continue ahead of the
front. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kts
remain conditionally favorable for a severe storm, however veering
and weakening low-level flow suggest the threat has essentially
ended. Abundant low-level moisture along and ahead of the front is
resulting in low clouds and fog. Montgomery reported dense fog
earlier and Auburn is currently reporting dense fog, where a dense
fog advisory is currently in effect. Guidance is fairly insistent
on dense fog developing across our southern and western counties.
Will probably end up expanding the advisory again, however the low
clouds and showers preclude a pre-emptive expansion at this time.

The front will eventually begin to lift back to the north as a
warm front today. A moist air mass, a weak 700mb disturbance, and
isentropic lift will result in scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at times. Instability and shear will remain
conditionally favorable for a severe storm, but weak height
rises/lack of upper support will preclude any organized severe
threat, along with the potential for persistent low clouds to
limit instability. The well-advertised strong cold front will move
in after midnight tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will continue to be possible, but upper forcing will lag
well behind the front.

Sunday through Monday Night:

Strong cold air advection will move in Sunday behind the front
with breezy northwest winds, and continue Sunday night. Leaned
toward the raw model guidance for lows Sunday night with winds
staying up. This will prevent frost formation. Low temperatures
will drop below freezing across the northern half of the area, and
have issued a freeze watch there. Wind chills will be in the 20s
areawide Monday morning, with some upper teens in the far
northern counties. A very raw day is expected on Monday. Record
"cool highs" will be in jeopardy; see the climate section for more
details. Low RH values in the southern counties combined with the
strong winds may cause some fire weather concerns. The Euro and
its ensembles remain an outlier with a smaller-scale upper low
moving further south than other guidance, but represent an
alternative scenario where non-impactful flurries or light snow
showers could clip our far northeast counties. Surface ridge axis
moves in Monday night resulting in favorable radiational cooling
conditions. This will put an end to the growing season with lows
well into the 20s, near or below record lows.

Tuesday through Friday:

The cold snap will be short-lived with warming temperatures
through the week. A weak front may move into the area but remain
moisture-starved due to dry northwest flow aloft.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

Lots of low ceilings and low visibilities creating IFR conditions
this morning. The ceiling lift and visibility improvement
processes will both be slow this morning, and it may take a couple
to several hours (through 16z to 18z) to get into MVFR and
eventually VFR flight conditions. Once into VFR, conditions should
remain that way through the rest of the day, with broken clouds
around 4000 or 5000 ft. Rain chances at any particular terminal
are around 20-30 percent. I`ve opted to leave out any PROB30 or
TEMPO groups for now, for brevity`s sake. That can be reevaluated
once the fog and low clouds lift.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist conditions continue today and tonight with scattered showers
and storms. A strong cold front moves through Sunday with breezy
northwest winds. By Monday RH values may drop below 25 percent for a
couple hours in isolated spots in far southern portions of Central
Alabama, with values in the 25 to 35 percent range elsewhere. 20ft
wind gusts will be at or above 20 mph resulting in some fire weather
concerns. RH values drop into the 20 to 30 percent range on Tuesday
but winds will be much lighter.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 123 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

November 10:
KEET: 30/1996

November 11:
KBHM: 25/1926
KEET: 27/1996
KANB: 24/1950
KTCL: 26/1953
KMGM: 29/1991

Record Cold High Temperatures:

November 10:
KBHM: 46/1950
KEET: 50/2018
KANB: 47/1950
KTCL: 51/1977
KMGM: 55/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  52  59  29 /  30  30  10   0
Anniston    74  54  59  30 /  40  30  10   0
Birmingham  75  53  59  31 /  30  30   0   0
Tuscaloosa  77  51  60  32 /  30  30   0   0
Calera      77  53  62  31 /  30  30   0   0
Auburn      76  60  67  34 /  30  40  20   0
Montgomery  79  59  67  35 /  20  40  10   0
Troy        79  61  69  36 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
the following counties: Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-
Marion-Pickens-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION.../61/