052
FXUS64 KBMX 081123
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

Some patchy fog is possible this morning, especially in areas that
received rain yesterday. This should mix out after sunrise. Low
clouds are likely to build in as well, with ceiling gradually
lifting after midday and into the afternoon hours. A cold front will
work through the area today, with a 20-30% rain chance across
southern and southeastern counties that should end by sunset. Rain
chances are near zero for areas north of I-20.

Cooler, drier air will build in behind the front, bringing another
taste of fall to Central Alabama by Thursday. Highs in the mid 70s
to low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s should make
for a pleasant day across the region. The far southeastern areas
south of U.S. 80 between Montgomery and Georgia have a slight chance
at a shower or two during the afternoon, but impact will be
minimal.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

A gradual warmup is expected Friday through Tuesday, with widespread
70s on Friday becoming low to mid 80s by Tuesday. Dewpoints are
currently forecast to stay in the 50s to maybe 60 each day, which
will still keep the "refreshing" feel outside. As of this forecast
cycle, no rain is in the forecast for Central Alabama from Friday
through mid-next week. With little relief in sight from a rainfall
standpoint, drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not
worsen, through next week.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025

Patchy fog has developed in a few spots close to the terminals
this morning, along with the development of MVFR stratus. Although
the duration of lower visibilities or stratus isn`t expected to
last very long this morning, have opted to include a TEMPO group
for lower vis and ceilings for a few hours through 13z, expected
to improve from 14z to 16z. Amendments may be needed to extend the
lower MVFR ceilings/visibilities a bit longer this morning based
on observation trends. As a surface front moves across Central
Alabama through the day, northerly surface winds will develop
around 10 knots as sky conditions become mostly clear. VFR
conditions will continue into the overnight hours tonight and
through 12z Thursday morning.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Slight rain chances are in the forecast today across the southern
and southeastern counties. However, widespread wetting rainfall is
not expected. Any rainfall amounts will be too light to mitigate the
worsening drought. Min RH values should remain above 50% through
Thursday, dropping to 35-45% on Friday. Winds today will be
generally northerly up to 10-12 mph. Outdoor burning remains highly
discouraged due to ongoing drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  58  76  53 /  10   0  10   0
Anniston    83  59  77  53 /  10   0  10   0
Birmingham  84  59  78  57 /  10   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  85  59  82  57 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      85  59  81  55 /  10   0  10   0
Auburn      84  64  77  55 /  20  10  10   0
Montgomery  87  64  80  59 /  20  10  10   0
Troy        85  64  79  56 /  30  10  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...56/GDG