877
FXUS64 KBMX 181814
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
114 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

Tranquil but hot and dry weather will be the story throughout the
short-term period. The very broad upper level ridge centered over
the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to build, with upper level
heights increasing across the southern Appalachian states. Dry air
has advected westward, especially evident just above 700mb as
measured by the 12z KBMX sounding. No convective development is
expected today as a result, with a more comfortable easterly flow
at the surface. The dry air aloft is mixing to the surface in some
locations, dropping dewpoints down into the 50s. In most cases,
dewpoint observations are in the low to mid 60s with scattered to
broken fair weather cumulus. Highs remain on track to top out in
the lower 90s in most locations with easterly winds between 10 and
15mph. Partly cloudy skies can be expected tonight, with mostly
high clouds streaming across the region with lows in the lower
70s. Wednesday is expected to be a rinse and repeat forecast, as
the drier easterly flow continues with no rain chances.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

Anomalously strong mid-level ridging will be centered over the
Mid-Atlantic Region to start the period. it will become elongated
zonally as it becomes centered over West Tennessee by Friday, then
become centered over the Southern Plains over the weekend. Deep-
layer moisture will increase from the east late Friday through
the weekend, resulting in a return for chances for showers and
storms, initially Friday afternoon confined to areas southeast of
Interstate 85 then again Saturday and Sunday afternoons across
the southeast third of the area with isolated chances southeast of
Interstate 85. High temperatures will be in the low 90s Wednesday,
then increasing into the mid 90s by Friday followed by highs in
the upper 90s Saturday and Sunday, however, these readings may be
lower if shower and storm activity is greater. Low temperatures
will be in the lower 70s Wednesday night through Friday night,
followed by lows in the mid 70s on Sunday and Monday mornings.

05

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

A 500 mb ridge over the Mid-Atlantic region will begin migrating
southwestward on Thursday. Deep-layer easterlies south of this
ridge will provide a fetch of relatively dry air through Friday
with PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range. As the 500 mb ridge
moves over Deep South, the moderating effects of easterly flow
will wane as low- level flow weakens. Temperatures are expected
to upward from the 89-92 degree range on Thursday, to the mid 90s
for Friday through Sunday.

Meanwhile, enhanced moisture associated with a weakening tropical
wave may arrive in South Georgia and the Florida Panhandle and
possibly into Southeast Alabama. Any showers and storms on
Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southeastern part
of our area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection may
occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture
advection. Though there is disagreement on the mid-level pattern
on Monday, models are in general agreement on weak height falls
and moistening of the atmosphere across the Deep South. As a
result, showers and storms could become more numerous on Monday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Easterly
surface winds between 10 and 15 knots will continue this afternoon
diminishing overnight. Very similar conditions are expected
through the day on Wednesday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will return today through Friday as easterly
winds bring drier air to the region. This will lead to a
downtrend in RH values into the 35 to 45 percent range each day.
Easterly 20 ft winds will range from 7 to 12 mph through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    71  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  74  91  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  74  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      73  91  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      71  88  69  88 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  73  90  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        71  90  69  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...56