221
FXUS64 KBMX 150601
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1201 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

 - A cold front will bring a mild airmass on Monday. Otherwise,
   unseasonably warm conditions are expected through the next 7
   days.

 - Our next rain chances are expected to arrive at the end of next
   week, yet there is currently low confidence on the specific details.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Sunday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1138 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

Today Through Monday

A 500mb ridge axis will extend north through Texas and through the
Four Corners region today. At the surface, there is high pressure
centered over the Gulf Coast region that will gradually shift
southward today as low-level troughing advances from the Upper
Midwest towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The high pressure
will promote stable but unseasonably warm conditions again today
with highs in the mid to upper 70s and mostly sunny skies other than
some passing high-level clouds. By Sunday morning, an east to west
oriented cold front will be situated across the Tennessee Valley.
Guidance suggests the front will move south of Central Alabama
during the afternoon where it will likely stall along the Gulf
Coast. The front will produce a slight boost in cloud cover, but
moisture content will be lacking, so precip is not expected on
Sunday. Monday should be the coolest day of the week with a more
mild, post-frontal airmass and very low humidity. Lows Monday
morning will range from the upper 30s northeast to upper 40s
southwest with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s northeast
to mid 70s southwest.


Tuesday Through Thursday

A weakening shortwave, and associated surface low, will eject across
the Central Plains Monday night which will cause the stalled front
to lift northward with dewpoints in the 50s surging northward across
the area. The surface low is progged to fall apart over the Ozarks
as broad ridging builds over the Central CONUS. Therefore, expecting
any rain associated with the shortwave to remain north of the area,
but unseasonably warm temperatures quickly return on Tuesday as
southerly flow redevelops and height rises occur. Will see highs
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s from Tuesday through
Thursday. These values are well above average and potentially near
record values in a few places. A stronger, deeper trough will be
situated over the Four Corners Thursday morning which will
initiate cyclogenesis over Oklahoma and Kansas. This system will
bring increased rain chances to Central Alabama, but latest
forecast trends are suggesting those chances will hold off until
the end of the week. However, our western counties could begin to
see a few showers as early as Thursday night.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

VFR TAFs are expected to continue through the next 24 hours with
mostly clear skies other than some passing high-level clouds. Some
patchy fog may develop along the coast and near MGM, but did not
have enough confidence to mention in the TAF. Expect southwesterly
winds this afternoon up to 10-12 kts at times.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With no rain chances the next two days and RH above 30%, the most
impactful fire weather parameter will be winds. Through the
weekend winds will pick up from he WSW with sustained winds near
10 MPH with gusts up to 18 MPH both today and Sunday. Wind will
shift to the NNW Sunday afternoon and decrease in speed by Sunday
night as a front moves through the area. RH will decrease
significantly behind the front on Monday with minimum values near
critical thresholds across northern and eastern portions of the
area. However, winds are expected to remain below Red Flag
Advisory criteria.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     40  76  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    45  76  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  49  76  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  47  79  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      45  79  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      47  75  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  43  78  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        43  76  53  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86/Martin
AVIATION...86/Martin