Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
702 FXUS64 KBMX 201806 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1206 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025 - Near-record high temperatures are forecast today across central Alabama, perhaps again on Friday and Saturday for some locations. - An opportunity for showers and thunderstorms looks to be focused on Friday and Tuesday. A low risk for a couple strong to severe thunderstorms may arise with the Tuesday system. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 1202 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025 Currently watching the first of several waves over the next few days slide across northern Mississippi and western Tennessee. This wave is riding along a warm front that has lifted into the Tennessee Valley this morning. This front arcs around Alabama from Little Rock to Nashville and then back south to Athens, Georgia. This batch of showers and a few storms will slide along the front and just clip our northern row of counties into the evening hours. On Friday the cold front associated with this system will begin to slide into the area from the west while the main low slides into the Ohio Valley. The main dynamics will be well to the north of the area on Friday, so really only looking at general storms at best with the front. Only other weather concern for tonight will be the potential for fog once again. With the added cloud cover in the north, it appears that any dense fog should be limited to the south. For now just went with patchy to areas of fog in the south and will need to monitor the trends to our our south tonight. This front clears on Saturday and we will see high pressure build into the area for Sunday and Monday as ridging develops over the eastern CONUS. This ridging will be enhanced thanks to a cutoff low that will develop across the western CONUS. This low will slowly meander across the southwest US until a larger trough begins to descend into the northwest on Monday. This larger scale trough will absorb the cutoff low and then swing into the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. We will need to continue to monitor the trends on Tuesday as well as timing for any stronger to severe storms. Right now the confidence remains low for any widespread activity. The main upper low associated with the parent system will slide well into the southern portions of central Canada, with a reinforcing cold front on Wednesday to finally clear out the area and bring in some Fall weather. Just in time for Thanksgiving with some actually below normal temperatures expected. Will need to monitor the trends over the next few days, but there are some low probabilities of a cold rain during the day Thursday with one of the models ensemble runs as the southern stream of the jet remains active. More on that in the upcoming days. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025 The low clouds and fog has finally lifted across the area. We may have some MVFR ceilings over the next hour but should lift by 19/20z. at BHM and EET but overall VFR conditions expected. There will be some patchy fog/low clouds again tonight but thinking is the biggest impacts will be at AUO and MGM where the best moisture will be around with light to calm winds. Areas in the north will still have a chance for fog but will see increasing clouds as a cold front begins to enter the picture in the west. Included a prob30 for rain showers for the north from 14 to 18z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values remain above critical thresholds over the next several days. An opportunity for showers and thunderstorms is forecast on Friday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1200 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025 Record High Temperatures: November 20: KBHM: 79/1896 KEET: 75/2007 KANB: 78/1979 KTCL: 80/1949 KMGM: 81/1900 November 21: KEET: 77/2011 KANB: 77/2011 KTCL: 79/1965 KMGM: 83/2011 November 22: KBHM: 79/1900 KEET: 77/2010 KANB: 79/1963 KTCL: 79/1979 KMGM: 81/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 55 74 62 76 / 10 70 70 20 Anniston 58 75 64 75 / 10 60 70 20 Birmingham 59 72 65 76 / 10 70 60 20 Tuscaloosa 58 73 64 78 / 10 70 50 20 Calera 56 74 64 78 / 0 70 60 20 Auburn 57 77 65 77 / 0 20 40 20 Montgomery 56 79 66 81 / 0 40 40 10 Troy 55 79 65 81 / 0 20 20 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION...16