Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
441 FXUS64 KBMX 101754 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1154 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025 - Seasonable temperatures expected this week with little chance for rain until the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tues) Issued at 1150 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025 Guidance continues to show a reinforcing cold front to move through this afternoon and evening with a surface pressure ridge to slide EWD from TX behind it and over the SE US on Thu. Although cooler tonight into Thu, we are looking toward next week for even colder conditions. A strong 1056mb ridge will slide SEWD out of Central Canada on Sat. This will allow for a stronger front to move through C AL late Sat into Sun. Behind it, on Sun a still strong 1040 mb ridge will slide from MN/IA into ERN Conus with much colder temperatures possible for the first part of next week including maybe some teens in the NRN half of the state for lows Mon morning. Will be watching closely to see if this airmass continues to be this cold behind the front, or if it modifies some as we get closer. 08 Previous discussion: (Today through next Tuesday) Issued at 1128 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025 A trough is expected to swing through Midwest today, pushing a cold front southward through Central AL later this evening into Thursday morning. Rain chances are very low with this frontal passage as moisture availability is limited. However, some of the higher resolution guidance has tried to introduce some light showers across the area, though I`ve left mention of rain out of the forecast for now due to low confidence in the scenario. Likely the most noticeable impact of the front will be the increased winds through the day. Drier northerly flow will be in place Thursday, shifting more southerly on Friday leading to a slight warming trend as we reach the end of the week. Our next system is expected to move through over the weekend with the frontal boundary to our south lifting northward as an effective warm front and stalling across Central AL. This could lead to low chances for rain Saturday night into Sunday, but the trend in the guidance has been drier for the last few runs, so any precip may be more scattered. The long-awaited cold surge has now been pushed back to Monday in the guidance, but given we haven`t seen a lot of consistency from run to run, I`d have little confidence in the forecast for early next week at this point in time. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST WED DEC 10 2025 VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours. All of the fog from earlier is gone. There will be some cirrus clouds around during the day today along with some VFR sct/bkn clouds ~ 5kft ahead of a cold front. No precipitation is expected with it. Winds will be gusty this afternoon starting from the SW 10-15kts with gusts 18-25kts. Winds will shift to the W during the afternoon and then to the NW during the overnight hours as the system progresses from NW to SE across C AL. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRHs will generally remain above 50% today with the frontal passage expected in the evening through overnight. Increased westerly winds will be in place for much of the day, shifting northerly behind the front. Min RHs Thursday will drop into the mid to upper 30% range. Our next chance for any rainfall appears to be Saturday evening through Sunday morning, but will likely remain scattered at best with the next frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 57 27 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 57 29 49 34 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 30 50 37 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 60 32 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 60 30 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 33 51 35 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 33 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 61 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08/25/Owen AVIATION...08