085
FXUS64 KBMX 041739
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1139 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

 - Up to 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
   corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

 - Below average high temperatures are anticipated through
   Tuesday, with the exception of Sunday being near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

Rain is currently ongoing across a large area south of I-20, and
this is where the best rain chances will remain through the weekend.
Rain will likely ebb and flow north/south during this time, as the
surface low continues to take shape and move inland. My midnight
shift counterpart described it best as "A conveyor belt of moisture"
remaining in place through Sunday, before another trough finally
pushes the rain east Monday morning.

Conditions will remain dry to start the new workweek, with below
freezing temperatures possible again Tuesday morning. Thankfully,
temperatures will gradually "warm" into Wednesday, but still remain
below average for the most part. With that being said, another deep
trough will begin taking shape, dropping south through the Midwest
during this timeframe. Guidance starts to split here regarding
additional rain chances midweek, with higher confidence in more
cold weather behind this longwave.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025

All terminals will see reduced flight categories the next 24 hours,
as rain moves across the region. All terminals will also carry -RA
in some capacity during this timeframe. CIGS and VIS will generally
run MVFR this afternoon, before IFR/LIFR conditions work in past
08/01z.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain remains in the forecast through the weekend, with fuels likely
staying damp for a few days into next week. MinRH values will remain
above 50% through Monday, with fire weather concerns remaining
little to none.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  37  51  36 /  40  90  20  20
Anniston    49  39  52  39 /  50  90  30  30
Birmingham  49  39  51  40 /  60  90  20  30
Tuscaloosa  48  39  51  39 /  80  90  20  30
Calera      50  39  53  39 /  70  90  30  30
Auburn      48  42  53  44 /  80  90  70  60
Montgomery  48  43  53  44 /  90  90  60  60
Troy        49  42  55  44 /  90  90  70  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/