Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
777 FXUS64 KBMX 201110 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 510 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 506 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025 - Dense fog with hazardous driving conditions will affect much of central Alabama through 9 am today. - Near-record high temperatures are forecast today across central Alabama, perhaps again on Friday and Saturday for some locations. - An opportunity for showers and thunderstorms looks to be focused on Friday and Tuesday. A low risk for a couple strong to severe thunderstorms may arise with the Tuesday system. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025 Today & Friday: Surface cooling combined with a shallow layer of moisture is resulting in foggy conditions across central Alabama this morning. Occurrences of dense fog are common per ASOS and cameras. Hazardous driving conditions will exist through 9 am this morning. Through the rest of today, the weather setup across the southern CONUS will promote continued variable cloudiness with another day of near-record high temperatures. A mid-level impulse will ride the northern perimeter of 500 mb ridging centered near the Yucatan, bringing clusters of showers and thunderstorms today to the Tennessee Valley. A few showers may occur as far south as the 278 corridor of north-central Alabama. Another impulse comes by on Friday with a better offering of showers and thunderstorms across central Alabama. CAMs show this occurring in the form of multiple clusters of activity, which matches the modeled configuration of this system. While a modest amount of wind shear will overspread the region, forecast soundings suggest poor instability profiles; so, severe weather is not anticipated though a few beneficial downpours may develop. The weekend: If the front moves slowly enough, Saturday`s weather may include lingering areas of cloudiness and some light showers. Models agree that by Sunday we`re totally rain-free. Temperatures over the weekend remain above seasonal normals, but not to the margins of earlier in the week. Next week: An upper-level trough near the Pacific Northwest today (Nov 20) is forecast to track across the southwest U.S. this weekend as a closed low and then move east early to mid next week as some form of an open trough. Ensembles show showers and thunderstorms affecting our area during a Tuesday into Tuesday night timeframe. There has been variability regarding the modeled structure of the trough; this heavily impacts the details of the forecast. Right now, the more aggressive solutions could support a low severe weather risk, but that`s in contrast to more tame and non-severe solutions. There`s not quite enough there to introduce a severe weather risk at this time. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025 Very dense fog will result in LIFR VIS and CIGS through the morning hours, mostly mixing out by 20/16z. One this fog mixes out, then VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period. /44/ && .FIRE WEATHER... MinRH values remain above critical thresholds over the next several days. An opportunity for showers and thunderstorms is forecast on Friday and Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1200 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025 Record High Temperatures: November 20: KBHM: 79/1896 KEET: 75/2007 KANB: 78/1979 KTCL: 80/1949 KMGM: 81/1900 November 21: KEET: 77/2011 KANB: 77/2011 KTCL: 79/1965 KMGM: 83/2011 November 22: KBHM: 79/1900 KEET: 77/2010 KANB: 79/1963 KTCL: 79/1979 KMGM: 81/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 79 55 75 60 / 10 10 50 70 Anniston 79 58 75 61 / 10 10 40 70 Birmingham 79 59 73 63 / 10 10 60 70 Tuscaloosa 81 58 75 63 / 0 10 70 50 Calera 81 56 76 61 / 0 10 50 60 Auburn 79 58 77 62 / 0 0 20 40 Montgomery 82 56 79 65 / 0 0 30 30 Troy 81 55 78 63 / 0 0 20 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah- Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo- Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ DISCUSSION...89 AVIATION.../44/