208
FXUS64 KBMX 010556
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1156 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
   expected across central Alabama through Tuesday.

 - Widespread freezing temperatures will return Tuesday night
   through Wednesday morning.

 - Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
   upcoming week with an additional opportunity for significant
   rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

Did some tweaks on the PoPs to slow down a few hours of the
exiting of the rain in the southeast. There is a pretty defined
back-edge and that should clear the forecast area by Midnight at
least. Colder air filters in behind the line, but could be
modified a touch if clouds hang tough, like models tend to
struggle with. If the clouds do hang on, expected temperatures to
be 2 to 4 degrees above forecast in the north. We could
potentially see some clearing after sunrise before the next
shortwave works in.

16

Previous discussion:
(Through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

The next shortwave trough in the train will dip into the lower MS
valley on Monday, and help induce an inverted trough/surface low
along the Gulf coast. This will begin the overrunning process into
Alabama, with another period of widespread rain expected Monday
and Monday night. While there might be enough lift provided by
synoptic scale and isentropic processes to produce a few rumbles
of thunder, it won`t be widespread and certainly shouldn`t even
approach strong (let alone severe) levels.

As that system departs the area on Tuesday, the rain will depart
with it, leaving dry and chilly weather for the mid-week period.
Models are starting to converge on a solution regarding the end of
week system, and rain chances have accordingly started to ramp up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

MVFR stratus is holding firm across much of Central Alabama with a
few breaks trying to work in at BHM and TCL as a front currently
stalls across the state. South of the front, IFR to MVFR stratus
will continue through the remainder of the forecast period with
occasional breaks in the clouds at BHM and TCL through the mid-
morning hours on Monday. Widespread rains are then expected to
develop during the afternoon through 00z with ceilings dropping to
IFR category. Vis restrictions are likely due to moderate to
perhaps heavy RA continuing through the end of the forecast
period. Surface winds will veer from the northeast and to the east
by this afternoon through Monday night between 5 and 10 knots.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of soaking rainfall is expected to move across
Central Alabama this afternoon through early Tuesday morning. 1 to
2 inches of rainfall on average is anticipated along and
south/east of the I-59 corridor. Dry weather returns late Tuesday
through the mid-week period with MinRHs ranging from the mid 30s
to upper 40s once again by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     33  51  42  44 /   0  60 100  30
Anniston    36  52  44  46 /   0  60 100  30
Birmingham  36  50  41  44 /   0  60 100  20
Tuscaloosa  37  51  40  43 /   0  60 100  10
Calera      38  52  43  45 /   0  50 100  20
Auburn      44  54  48  51 /  10  50 100  50
Montgomery  47  58  49  52 /  10  50 100  30
Troy        48  58  51  54 /  10  50 100  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...56/GDG