318
FXUS64 KBMX 161124
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
524 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025

 - A cold front will bring a milder airmass on Monday. Otherwise,
   unseasonably warm conditions are expected through the next 7
   days.

 - There is potential for an increasing fire weather risk on
   Monday as much drier air moves into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 1206 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025

An east to west oriented cold front will pass through the area today
and stall along the Gulf Coast region by tonight. Cloud cover will
increase ahead of and along the front, but a lack of deeper moisture
will prevent any precip. Temperatures will warm up into the 70s this
afternoon then cooler air will follow behind the front with
overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s northeast to lower 50s
southwest.

This airmass will also be very dry, and we will have to monitor
fire weather conditions Monday afternoon as RH drops into the
20-25% range across most of the area. A mid-level ridge axis and
associated high pressure center will shift east across the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Monday as a weakening shortwave
moves towards the Plains. This shortwave will cause the stalled
front to rapidly lift north of Central Alabama with southerly low-
level flow redeveloping by Tuesday. This will cause the period of
unseasonable, near record warmth to amplify through the middle to
end of the work week with strong height rises occurring as deep-
layer ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. Highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s will be common Tuesday through Thursday.

A more potent and deeper trough will begin to eject across the Four
Corners towards the Plains states on Thursday while the associated
surface low rapidly advance from Kansas to the Great Lakes region on
Friday. This sequence will push another cold front through the Lower
MS River Valley and provide increasing rain chances to the forecast
area by the end of the week. Confidence on specific timing remains
low, but rain looks to arrive in the west in the late Friday/early
Saturday time frame with rain chances persisting into Saturday.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025

Low level clouds should linger through the morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. Most terminals should mix out to VFR
category by 16/15z, with mixing continuing into the afternoon.
From there, VFR conditions are anticipated for the rest of this
TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A rain-free cold front will pass through the area today resulting
in a wind shift from south-southeast to north-northwest by this
afternoon. A much drier airmass will arrive behind the front
tomorrow with min RH dropping below critical thresholds for a few
hours across much of the area Monday afternoon, contributing to a
moderate risk of significant fire potential. However, winds are
expected to remain well below Red Flag Advisory criteria during
this time. Higher dewpoints will begin to return to the area on
Tuesday, and we will see an improvement in min RHs with values
ranging from 35-40% in the east and 45-50% in the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  39  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    75  40  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  75  45  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  78  45  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      78  44  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      75  46  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  78  47  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        77  49  74  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86/Martin
AVIATION.../44/