498
FXUS64 KBMX 122325
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
525 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025

- While cool mornings continue, seasonably warm afternoons are
  expected into next week.

- Dry conditions persist for the next several days. A low to
  medium chance for rain arrives for parts of central Alabama
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025

Little change with this morning`s forecast update. Water vapor
imagery this morning reveals an upper trough across the northeast US
and another heading towards the West Coast. Upper ridging can be
seen building across the Four Corners region, leaving us with
quasi-zonal flow aloft over the southeast. Upper level riding
will gradually expand east through the week. Surface high pressure
across the southeast and an influx of dry air (0.59" PWAT on the
12Z KBMX sounding) will keep a dry forecast in place through the
weekend. We will need to monitor for some patchy fog development
early Thursday morning. Forecast soundings suggest enough
lingering low level moisture is in place to produce some patchy
fog as winds become light. Latest HREF guidance indicates a 30-50%
chance for vis less than a mile. Increasing probabilities and RAP
guidance promoting condensation pressure deficits from 2-4mb
provide enough confidence to introduce patchy fog across our
northwestern counties. Otherwise, our warming trend will continue
with high temps rebounding back into the mid to upper 70s by the
weekend. Lows will generally be in the 40s and 50s.

Our pattern begins to change late this weekend into early next
week as a stout upper trough slides across the Great Lakes region
while sending a cold front our way. We will see PWATs on the rise
ahead of this boundary which will help promote a 20-40% chance of
showers and thunderstorms. We hang onto low to moderate rain
chances through mid week as a series of shortwaves pass nearby.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025

The only aside to VFR conditions over the next 24 hours is the
potential for patchy early-morning MVFR fog to affect some
central Alabama terminals.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions with continued drought will impact the area
through much of the upcoming weekend. Winds will gust at times
this afternoon out of the west-northwest, generally from 15-20
MPH. Winds will relax this evening and remain light through the
remainder of the week. Min RH values will generally be in the
40-50% range today and tomorrow. RHs fall into the 30-35% range
across our southeastern areas on Friday. However, our significant
fire potential remains low. Min RHs increase back into the 40-50%
range for most over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     38  70  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    42  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  44  70  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  45  73  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      44  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      45  71  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  44  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        44  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite