Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
374 FXUS64 KBMX 171723 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1109 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025 - A very dry airmass will promote an increased fire weather risk today as RH values drop into the 15-25% range this afternoon. Fortunately, light winds are expected. - A warming trend will occur this week with near-record highs expected from Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) Issued at 1109 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025 The main concern in the short term part of the forecast is an increased fire weather threat today. Relative humidity values are currently ranging from 15-25% across most of the region. There is a medium chance that we will see RHs drop below 15% briefly this afternoon. The 12Z HREF hints at a 30-40% chance of RH less than 15% across the northern half of Central Alabama. Luckily, our winds look to remain on the lighter side, generally 5-10 knots. We will be keeping a close eye on the trends through the day as our significant fire risk is moderate today. Tuesday will be another day worth monitoring. Our significant fire potential bumps up into the high category for the northern part of the CWA, mainly due to an increase in wind speed. A tightening pressure gradient, in response to a deepening surface low moving towards the Ohio Valley, will allow for gusts from 15-20 knots at times. At the same time, the stalled boundary along the Gulf coast will lift north-northeast across the state. A gradual moistening behind the warm front should help negate some fire weather concerns Tuesday as min RHs rebound back into the 40-50% range across our west and northwest areas where the winds will be strongest. Our eastern areas will see RHs in the 30s tomorrow but winds are still expected to be light. Looking ahead to the rest of the week, a passing shortwave may spark a few showers across our northern counties on Wednesday morning as a trailing H85 vort max is pulled across North Alabama. Meanwhile, a stout upper low will be churning off the Baja coast, eventually lifting across the Four Corners and the Plains as we head into the weekend. A surface low looks to develop across the Plains on Friday and race off to the east while sending a cold front our way on Saturday. We will see rain chances begin to increase on Friday as isentropic lift increases. Chances for showers and storms will increase Friday night into Saturday as the front moves through. With an overall lack of instability, not expecting much in the way of severe at this time. With that said, there is roughly a 20-30% chance to see an isolated thunderstorm or two. Rain chances gradually come to an end through the day Saturday as upper ridging builds in. 95/Castillo && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025 VFR conditions prevail through this TAF window. Light and variable winds today will begin to increase out of the south-southwest late Tuesday morning, generally around 8-10 knots. 95/Castillo && .FIRE WEATHER... The main concern in the short term part of the forecast is an increased fire weather threat today. Relative humidity values are currently ranging from 15-25% across most of the region. There is a medium chance that we will see RHs drop below 15% briefly this afternoon. Luckily, our winds look to remain on the lighter side, generally 5-10 knots. We will be keeping a close eye on the trends through the day as our significant fire risk is moderate today. Tuesday will be another day worth monitoring. Our significant fire potential bumps up into the high category for the northern part of the CWA, mainly due to an increase in wind speed with gusts up to 20 knots. However, moisture will increase through the day which should help negate fire weather concerns. Min RHs remain in the 50-60% range for the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 40 76 55 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 68 44 76 57 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 69 50 77 60 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 73 51 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 71 47 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 71 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 73 47 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 74 48 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Castillo AVIATION...95/Castillo