117
FXUS64 KBMX 021744
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1144 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

 - Below freezing temperatures are expected tonight, with below
   average temperatures anticipated for most of the next seven
   days.

 - Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   with no flooding impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

The forecast the next week will continue to be one reminiscent of
the Northeast this time of the year: cloudy, rainy, and colder.

Lows tonight are still anticipated to drop below freezing for most
of the region, with one major caveat: cloud cover. The low clouds
are still expected to mix out over the course of the day, but
there`s currently a low to medium (20-60%) chance that mid to high
clouds develop overnight. This would stunt any type of radiational
cooling event overnight, keeping overnight lows higher. However, if
these cloud do not develop, then lows tonight are likely five
degrees too warm in some locations. With all that being said, given
the density of the current cloud deck, I do anticipated at least
some influence from the clouds on overnight lows in some capacity.

Dry conditions will return to the region on Wednesday, as we
experience a "lull" in the pattern, before the next system starts
to work into the region by Thursday. Here, a surface low will
kick off the Texas coast, and work its way into the Mobile Bay
area by Friday. In turn, rain chances will begin to increase in
some of our south zones by Thursday, with widespread rain expected
on Friday as this surface low pushes inland. An additional 1-2
inches of rain is expected, with rain showers lingering through
the weekend.

Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the forecast, with
another reinforcing shot of cold air possible sometime early next
week. Here, a series of troughs will be digging through the midwest,
with at least one of these troughs dropping south enough to allow
for that aforementioned cold air to work into the region.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025

Skies will generally hover between MVFR and IFR category today,
before mixing to MVFR by this evening. However, IFR CIGS should
return area-wide by 03/06z, with continued mixing into VFR
category expected by 03/16z

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A brief dry period is expected on Wednesday, before an additional
round of soaking rainfall moves into the region by Thursday evening.
1-2 inches of rain are anticipated, with the best rainfall amounts
currently expected in regions with the largest drought conditions.
Otherwise, MinRH values will hover in the 50-60% range through the
weekend, and Fire Weather concerns will remain limited due to wet
fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  26  52  28 /  50   0   0   0
Anniston    52  29  52  31 /  50   0   0   0
Birmingham  48  27  52  33 /  30   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  47  29  53  33 /  20   0   0  10
Calera      51  29  55  32 /  30   0   0  10
Auburn      55  32  53  35 /  30   0   0   0
Montgomery  55  32  53  34 /  30   0   0   0
Troy        57  32  55  33 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/