905
FXUS64 KBMX 021139
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
539 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

-  Below average temperatures are expected to continue through
   Monday, but will be replaced with a warm and dry pattern
   Tuesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Through next Sunday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Low pressure will pass across the southeast today. Winds will
transition to out of the north by the early afternoon, bringing
cool and dry air to the state. Soundings show a fairly dry
profile, so would expect mostly light rain, with a few areas of
stronger, moderate showers in the north and northeastern part of
the area, closer to the center of the low. By Sunday night, the
low will be to the east with dry conditions expected through the
rest of the work week.

Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s Sunday night and
Monday night, with gradual warming expected into the 40s by
Tuesday night. There is a low to medium chance for frost
potential, especially in a few isolated areas across the north and
northwest. Will keep an eye on how low the temperatures do drop
for any Advisory.

Zonal upper level flow will set up over the country through much
of the work week, with a surface high developing over the lower MS
River valley and moving east. By Wednesday, winds will shift to
out of the south and then southeast, bringing more moisture and
warmer air to the area. Temperatures will gradually warm each day,
with values in the mid 70s by Wednesday, and upper 70s by Friday.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving across the eastern
CONUS with a boundary bringing rain sometime in the Saturday
timeframe.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025

A low pressure will move east of the area with the greatest chance
for rain north and northeast of any TAF site. Therefore, have left
many mention of rain out of each TAF site and will amend if
needed. Dry low levels will allow for VFR conditions through the
TAF period.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

As the next system works into the region, MinRH values will slightly
rebound through Monday across much of the area, except roughly I85
and southeast where mid 30-40% RH will be present. By Tuesday, RH
should drop into the mid 30-40% range for the entire area,
remaining through the rest of the work week. Dry conditions are
expected through the week, with drought conditions continuing and
potentially expanding given the lack of additional rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  38  65  38 /  60  20   0   0
Anniston    63  39  65  39 /  50  20   0   0
Birmingham  58  39  64  40 /  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  62  38  67  39 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      64  39  67  39 /  30   0   0   0
Auburn      67  43  66  44 /  20  30   0   0
Montgomery  69  40  68  40 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        69  40  67  40 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16