135
FXUS64 KBMX 302005
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
205 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

 - Significant rain amounts of one to two inches on average are
   expected across central Alabama through Tuesday.

 - Widespread freezing temperatures will return Tuesday night
   through Wednesday morning.

 - Another storm system is poised to arrive by the end of the
   upcoming week with an additional opportunity for significant
   rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

First batch of showers plodding through central Alabama just about
as expected, with generally light intensity rain. This rain should
eventually move out of all but perhaps the southeast part of
central Alabama tonight.

The next shortwave trough in the train will dip into the lower
MS valley on Monday, and help induce an inverted trough/surface
low along the Gulf coast. This will begin the overrunning process
into Alabama, with another period of widespread rain expected
Monday and Monday night. While there might be enough lift provided
by synoptic scale and isentropic processes to produce a few
rumbles of thunder, it won`t be widespread and certainly shouldn`t
even approach strong (let alone severe) levels.

As that system departs the area on Tuesday, the rain will depart
with it, leaving dry and chilly weather for the mid-week period.
Models are starting to converge on a solution regarding the end of
week system, and rain chances have accordingly started to ramp up.

/61/
&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025

Long band of rain showers cutting diagonally across central
Alabama this morning should continue to push slowly southward
through the afternoon. As the steadier and heavier rain arrives,
expect ceiling to lower. Latest model moisture profiles suggest
that once ceilings lower to IFR category, they will probably stay
there through the rest of the afternoon (even after the rain
tapers off). Current sub-1000 ft ceilings north of the rain area
supports this notion.

There may be a brief period of improvement from late tonight
(after 06Z) through Monday morning, as the rain tapers off.
However, there is lower confidence in this aspect of the forecast
than on the more near term low ceilings.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A series of storm systems will bring at least two waves of rain
to Central Alabama through Tuesday afternoon. RH values will
remain elevated through Tuesday as a more significant system moves
through the region and widespread soaking rainfall is forecast.
Dry weather returns late Tuesday through the mid-week period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     31  51  43  44 /  10  70 100  40
Anniston    35  54  45  45 /  20  70 100  40
Birmingham  36  52  42  44 /  20  70 100  30
Tuscaloosa  35  52  41  44 /  20  70 100  20
Calera      36  55  44  45 /  20  70 100  30
Auburn      44  58  51  51 /  30  60 100  40
Montgomery  46  61  50  51 /  20  60 100  30
Troy        47  62  53  54 /  20  60 100  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../61/
AVIATION.../61/