072
FXUS65 KBOI 192100
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
200 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Valley stratus and
patchy fog were slowly decreasing this afternoon and should be
less extensive tonight than last night. North Pacific cold front
will move onshore late today, then weaken as it moves further
inland, finally dissipating in eastern OR early Thursday morning.
The supporting upper trough will split with the southern end
becoming a closed low in California Thursday, while the north
portion continues eastward along the Canadian border. Light
rain with the front will get only as far east as Malheur County
before the front dissipates. However, hi-res models show another
area of light rain (.05 inch at most) in western Idaho Thursday.
Drying is expected in our CWA Thursday night through Friday
night with the closed low moving to southern California and the
northern trough well east of our area. As the low and trough
move away from each other an upper ridge will develop over our
area Friday. The ridge will gradually cause an inversion in the
valleys below with more fog and low clouds. High temps Thursday
and Friday will continue around 5 degrees above normal. Lows
will cool several degrees each night, back to normal Friday
night. No significant winds.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A high pressure ridge
with weak NW flow will keep temperatures moderated at 5-10
degrees above normal this weekend. Dry weather with partly
cloudy skies and light winds is expected during this time.
However, the only wrench in the forecast are some low mixing
heights (1800-2500 ft AGL) which are borderline favorable for
an inversion developing. Stratus under an inversion would
result in daily highs colder than forecast, but right now
the inversion only has a 20% chance of building. Monday,
temps remain warmer than normal but the region will be clipped
by the southern end of a broad trough as it moves across the
US/Canadian border. This will bring a 20-30% chance of
precipitation in high terrain, snow above 5-6 kft MSL, and
the stronger NW flow behind the trough will bring colder air
on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temps finally dropping to near
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...Most fog has lifted to IFR-MVFR stratus across
the area. Isolated showers continue in the ID mtns through
this afternoon. A brief break in precipitation this evening
and tonight will open another window for fog and stratus to
settle before more precipitation arrives Thursday morning.
Incoming precip will favor a lifting to IFR-MVFR stratus,
though visibility reductions to LIFR-IFR in misty precip are
possible. Surface winds: light and variable. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with low clouds lifting to mid-levels this
afternoon.  Overcast skies persist, and a band of light rain
showers will develop in the area Thursday morning which will
drop ceilings back down to MVFR. Surface winds remain light
and variable until late this evening when a brief prevailing
SE 5-10 kt wind develops.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM