544
FXUS65 KBOI 262111
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
211 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...An upper level low
in the north Pacific and its associated fronts are driving much
of the weather in the short term. Tonight through Thursday
morning, a warm front will be moving northeastward out of our
area. Precipitation chances along and behind the front are
40-60%, located mostly in SW-central Idaho and NE Oregon high
terrain. As the warm front has moved through most of the area
already, snow levels are rising up to 6-8 kft MSL in the warmer
airmass. This will prevent much of the area from seeing further
snow accumulation, but ridges in the West Central and Boise Mtns
could see light accumulation. Otherwise, up to 0.1 inches of
rainfall will fall in that same area. While there were no obs of
freezing rain this morning, thermal profiles in the West
Central Mtns are riding the line again tonight. However, the
surface may be just too warm and air loft be just to cold to
refreeze any melted precipitation so the chance remains less
than 10%. Precipitation follows the front northeastward out of
the area Thursday morning.

The warmer airmass sticks around for almost all of Thanksgiving
day, with slightly drier air aloft limiting precipitation to the
region just north of our CWA. Temperatures will return to the
5-10 degrees above normal we`ve seen for much of November, and
winds increase in SE Oregon and ridgetops ahead of Friday.

The cold front portion of the upper low moves in Thursday night
and Friday morning bringing more precipitation and dropping
temperatures. The high terrain in NE Oregon and W-Central Idaho
continue to be the favored areas for precipitation, with chances
40-60% increasing to the north. A 15% chance of precipitation
extends as far south as the Owyhees and Rome, Oregon. The most
likely timing of precipitation is Friday morning through
midnight Friday night. The colder airmass will drop snow levels
from 5-6 kft MSL that morning to 3-4 kft MSL at midnight.
Mountain towns and passes could see up to 1 inch of snow, while
ridges see up to 3 inches. Rainfall/liquid equivalent in the
same area is forecast to be up to 0.2 inches. Behind the front,
temperatures will drop to a few degrees above normal, and gusts
up to 35 mph are possible in Central Idaho open areas and
ridges.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The jet stream will
flow up and over an upper level ridge positioned off of the west
coast and then down and around a broad upper level trough over the
continental U.S.  This pattern will have enough of a northerly
component in our area to cool temperatures down to seasonal normals
for this time of year.  A shortwave trough embedded in the jet
stream will ride over the top of the ridge and into the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday night and Sunday bringing a 20 to 30
percent chance of precipitation to much of southwestern Idaho
and southeastern Oregon. It looks dry behind that shortwave on
Monday, but another shortwave will approach the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday increasing the chance of precipitation again. Snow
levels are expected to generally remain at or above 4000 feet,
so any snow accumulations should be limited to the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR in valleys. Areas of MVFR/IFR in mountains
due to low ceilings and light precipitation obscuring mountains will
continue until around 06Z generally north of a KBKE-KBOI-KSUN line.
Ceilings will slowly improve after midnight, but reductions in
visibility due to fog in vicinity of KMYL and KBKE are possible from
09Z to around 14Z tomorrow morning. Expect mostly VFR conditions on
Thursday across southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon. Surface
winds: variable 10 kt or less, becoming east to southeast at 10 to
15 kts across the Snake River plain on Thursday. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. There is about 10 percent chance of light rain at the
airport between 00Z and 06Z with an area of rain passing over the
foothills and mountains north of Boise this evening. Dry weather
expected on Thursday with surface winds becoming southeasterly at 5
to 10 kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB