363
FXUS65 KBOI 152033
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
233 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...An upper low to our
south will move east across Utah tonight. Rain showers will
decrease from west to east tonight as the low pulls away, ending
late tonight in the Magic Valley. Winds will be breezy tonight
into Thursday as the surface pressure gradient strengthens
behind the low. Increased winds should help prevent agricultural
valley temperatures from dipping much below 40 degrees tonight.
Temperatures on Thursday will remain around 5 degrees below
normal under dry northwest flow aloft. Afternoon wind gusts of
20 to 35 mph will be common across the Snake Basin, strongest
east of Boise. On Friday, northwest flow aloft will continue as
a shortwave trough moves by to the north, which will keep winds
breezy. Temperatures will warm a few degrees, but remain a
couple degrees below normal. Overnight lows will be similar
Thursday and Friday nights, but lighter winds may allow
sheltered areas in the agricultural valleys to dip into the mid
30s, with around a 30% chance of lows 36 degrees or colder.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Saturday will be mostly
clear, dry, with seasonal temps moderated by northwesterly flow
under a low-amplitude ridge ahead of a rapidly amplifying trough
along the Canadian west coast. Clouds increase Saturday night and
Sunday morning as the trough approaches, with the first round of
precipitation set to arrive Sunday around noon in eastern Oregon.
The GFS and EC deterministic and ensemble members are in broad
agreement, with the added addition of the EC/EAGLE AI models
agreeing. Precipitation will arrive in ID Sunday evening, with
orography supporting moderate rain/snowfall over the mountains.
Precipitation chances in E Oregon and W-central Idaho mountains is
60-80%, with a couple of inches of snow along summits thanks to ~5
kft MSL snow levels. Winds pick up and temperatures drop to 10
degrees below normal on Monday. Monday through Wednesday broad
ridging returns to the area with northwesterly flow, leading to a
slow but steady warming trend and scattered clouds. The Canadian
model remains out of line with the synoptic forecast of the
GFS/EC/EAGLE, so while some uncertainty remains it seems like a
clear-cut outlier now.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR-LIFR in precipitation and low stratus in SW and S-
central ID. Fog/Stratus is dissipating in SE OR. Embedded thunder is
possible in showers in S-central ID, but chances are low (10%).
Precipitation continues through the late afternoon. Snow levels 7-8
kft MSL. Surface winds: variable 5-10kt, becoming NW 5-15 kt. Later
this afternoon winds increase to 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt
mostly in the Snake Plain. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR, rain continues to the SE, but will move further SE this
afternoon. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt, with gusts to 20 kt this
evening and overnight.


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM