960
FXUS65 KBOI 101556
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
956 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...Overnight winds provided a mild start for some,
while clear, dry and calm conditions allowed other sites to get
chilly. At 6AM this morning Burns Oregon was 32 and Boise was
70. Deep low pressure system off the coast will continue on a
steady track eastward today. Cold frontal passage across our
area is still timed for later tonight. In the meantime no
significant change to the forecast for today. Strong southwest
flow aloft ahead of the low will bring gusty winds of 25 to 40
mph with locally higher gusts (45-50mph) across southern Harney
and Malheur counties in Oregon. Water vapor satellite is
showing a notable mid- level dry slot over the region this
morning. Near surface moisture across SW Idaho (dew points
45-50) and afternoon heating/instability will feed shower and
thunderstorm development. Gusty winds to 50 mph are possible
from stronger showers/storms, main across the Boise Mtns and
western Magic Valley to the ID/NV border through early evening.
Temperatures this afternoon will be well above normal, but below
record values for the day.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. LLWS continuing this morning across mainly
Idaho sites. With atmospheric mixing this threat should dwindle
by early afternoon. Showers developing over the ID W-central
mountains overnight tonight. Surface winds: S-E 10-20 kt with
gusts up to 25kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SE 20-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. LLWS continuing into the early afternoon. Surface
winds: SE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

Weekend Outlook...Areas of mountain obscuration Sat morning with
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers continue into Sunday
with snow levels 5-7kft MSL and mountains obscured. Breezy
conditions Saturday and Sunday afternoon with W-NW gusts of
20-30kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Southeast OR and
southwest ID remains sandwiched in a dry slot between a storm
system off the Pacific NW coast and subtropical moisture moving
northward over NV and UT into eastern ID. Enough moisture and
instability exists for showers and thunderstorms north and east of
the Magic Valley this morning, as southerly flow aloft banks up
against the central ID mountains. Dry air remains over eastern
OR and most of southwest ID west of Mountain Home to McCall. A
cold front is situated over western OR this morning and will
slowly advance across central and eastern OR this afternoon.
Breezy southeast to southwest winds strengthen this afternoon
ahead of the cold front as winds aloft mix down to the surface
for most locations. There is not enough moisture for showers and
thunderstorms to form in eastern OR as the cold front advances
east this afternoon. For example, dewpoints in eastern OR will
be in the 20s ahead of the cold front. In southwest ID, a
moisture boundary from the moisture situated over eastern NV and
UT will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon as the cold front clashes with the higher moisture
content air, generally from Caldwell/McCall and areas east.
Dewpoints over Twin Falls, Jerome and Fairfield reach the low
50s ahead of the cold front this evening. Strong wind gusts
possible to 50 mph along the front with storms that do form
around the Magic Valley and Boise Mountains. Cooler air moves
into the area on Saturday morning with high temperatures around
20-25 degrees cooler than Friday. Still quite a lot of
uncertainty for the sensible weather on Saturday, as the HRRR
has widespread precipitation across the area for much of the
day, while the rest of the ensemble suite has relatively dry
conditions. If the HRRR pans out, temperatures will be cooler
with more precipitation than currently forecast. Nonetheless,
breezy west-northwest winds of 20-30 mph expected Saturday
afternoon. Sunday the trough moves overhead with cool and
unsettled conditions, with light snow on the mountains above
7000 feet. Temperatures on Sunday around 10 degrees below
normal.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Cool and unsettled
conditions will persist through the extended period, though
confidence remains low regarding the exact timing and placement
of precipitation. A broad trough will continue to remain around
the Pacific NW, with several shots of cool air arriving from the
north. One such shortwave retrogrades into a low pressure system
off the Pacific NW coast on Monday and becomes a cutoff low. This
shifts the flow back to the southwest and allows temperatures to
moderate on Monday and Tuesday. This trough digs into southern
NV/CA by Wednesday with wrap around subtropical moisture impacting
the area. While both the deterministic and ensemble guidance show
good agreement on the overall pattern, forecast confidence
remains low due to the extreme amount of energy coming out of the
western Pacific due to the typhoons moving into the jet stream
upstream of us. Notably Typhoon Halong and the interaction with
the jet stream as it becomes a hurricane force low in the Bering
Sea this weekend. These complex interactions have historically
been poorly handled by the model suites and this time will be no
different. While the large scale pattern favors a continuation of
below normal temperatures, the evolution of each system will
depend heavily on how these Pacific interactions upstream unfold.
Or TLDR, the forecast will change greatly each day even if there
is good model agreement in the extended.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA