559
FXUS65 KBOI 252159
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
259 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A broad ridge
over the Western US will lead to general warming through the
short term. Supplemented by a low in the North Pacific a plume
of moisture will strengthen a warm front as it moves through the
northern portions of our area tonight and tomorrow.
Precipitation chances are 70-90% in high terrain in NE Oregon
and W-Central Idaho. Chances decrease quickly as you go south,
with only a 20% chance of precipitation in the upper Treasure
Valley and Burns. The warm front will raise snow levels from
3000-4000 ft MSL tomorrow morning to 7000-8000 ft MSL that
evening. While normal precipitation would change from snow to
rain within 800 ft of the snow level, the forecast is a little
trickier with the warm front`s structure. Behind the colder
airmass that passed on Monday, lower elevations will still be
very cold Wednesday morning, with large areas sub-freezing. This
introduces a risk of icy or freezing precipitation, however as
it stands in the current forecast the areas that have a
favorable ice temperature profile have too low a PoP for a
mention of ice/freezing precip. The only 10% chance of sleet or
freezing rain exists in very localized mountain valleys of E
Oregon Wednesday morning. Snowfall accumulation in the north is
about 0.5-2 inches in mountain valleys, and 1-3 inches on
ridges, with most of the precipitation occurring north of our
forecast area.

Thanksgiving Thursday will be drier than Wednesday and warmer.
Temps rise to 5-10 degrees above normal with a 20-40% chance of
precipitation to the north. Winds remain mild through the short
term. The warm frontal inversion and subsequent subsidence
inversion Wednesday to Thursday does introduce a risk of
fog/stratus and brief air stagnation, though chances for
formation right now are only 20-30%. Thursday night into Friday
morning a cold front begins to sharply reduce thickness,
snow levels and temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An upper-level shortwave trough
and associated cold front will begin to move through the area Friday
morning. Precipitation chances will be highest in higher elevations
(30-60% chance) but still mentionable for lower elevations/valleys
(10-30 chance) Friday morning to late Friday night. Snow levels
Friday will stay around 4000-5000 feet MSL, but gradually lower with
more cold air advection to 2500-3500 feet MSL Saturday. Upper-level
flow behind this shortwave from Friday will be north/northwesterly,
with another shortwave passage and associated cold front Saturday
afternoon into evening. Precipitation chances return for higher
elevations with this passage (15-25% chance), and snow levels will
also further lower to 2000-3000 feet MSL Sunday. Continued
north/northwesterly flow aloft will follow late Sunday into Monday.
Beginning Monday, a potent upper-level high pressure system well off
the coast of the western U.S. will begin to impact the area, raising
temperatures and bring clearer skies. This will be brief, however,
as another upper-level shortwave trough will move through the area
midday Tuesday, bringing precipitation chances yet again. The
current forecasted snow levels during this time only partially rise
Monday despite the warming, being 2500-4000 ft MSL by the time
precipitation comes around Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal
through the period, with wind gusts low despite many cold frontal
passages.

&&

VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions likely (50-70% chance) in the
west-central Idaho mountains and eastern Oregon from lowering
ceilings and rain/snow mix beginning this afternoon. Rain possible
(15-30%) in the Treasure Valley tonight through Wednesday afternoon,
low chance of being a wintry mix. Mountains becoming obscured
gradually west-to-east this afternoon into evening. Snows levels
3000-4000 ft MSL, lowest through the Snake Plain. Surface winds:
variable under 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 20-30kt,
becoming W-NW 30-40kt by 06z/Wednesday.

KBOI...VFR. 15-25% chance of precipitation 00z/Wed-18z/Wed. Current
forecast of precipitation type is rain, however there is a 5-10%
chance of being a wintry mix. Increasing cloud cover and lowering
ceilings this afternoon into evening. Surface winds: SE 5-10kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....CH
AVIATION.....CH