053
FXUS65 KBOI 082151
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
251 PM MST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...An impressive
atmospheric river is lined up across the Pacific Ocean extending
past Hawaii and is impacting the Pacific NW. Precipitation will
become widespread north of a line from Burns OR to Jerome ID
late this afternoon and last through Tuesday night. This will
bring 1-2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation to the
central ID mountains. Heavier precipitation will be just north
of our area. Rivers, creeks and streams will see notable rises
over the next few days. Snow will be confined to the highest
peaks above 7000-8000 feet.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The active weather takes
a break Thursday. The ridge supporting the atmospheric river
will move inland, pushing most of the moisture north of our
area. Precipitation tapers off through the day Thursday with
only a 20-30% chance of precip in the mountains that evening.
Winds also come down as the strong flow aloft shifts north with
the AR. Temps remain 10- 15 degrees above normal, with partly
cloudy skies each day through Sunday. The main hazard Thursday
through Sunday will be mixing heights less than 2 kft AGL in the
afternoons, an indicator of inversion development. Saturated
soils from the recent rain will make fog and low stratus likely,
especially if a strong inversion forms. Thursday and Friday
would be the warmest days with a slight cool down Saturday and
Sunday with highs dropping from near 60 in the Snake Plain to
the lower 50s. Low confidence in temperature forecasts as the
effect of inversions and fog/stratus tend to not be captured
well by models. Speaking of models, after Sunday there is
disagreement in the arrival of our next system. Most if not all
hint at the ridge weakening and the storm track moving back
south over the area, but differ on when that first storm moves
through. Monday would be the earliest shot at our next round of
precipitation, with chances increasing further into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Precip increasing from the northwest this afternoon
and evening, bringing VFR-MVFR ceilings and light rain to much
of the area. North of the Snake Plain ceilings down to IFR-LIFR
and visibilities reduced in moderate/heavy rain and snow.
Precip continues and mountains obscured through the period. Snow
levels 7- 10 kft MSL, lowest near KMYL and highest over
KBNO/KREO. Areas of LLWS as precip moves in. Surface winds: SW-
SE 5-15 kt, with gusts to 20-30 kt in E Oregon and mtns of SW
Idaho. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W 30-50 kt.

KBOI...VFR under increasing clouds. Light rain returning this
evening and lasting through the period. Surface winds: SE 4-10
kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM