958
FXUS65 KBOI 010405
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
905 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.DISCUSSION...Evening satellite imagery shows the erosion of
low stratus over the western Magic Valley, while seeing little
change in the cloud field over e-central Oregon. Otherwise,
seeing clear and cold conditions. Some fog/stratus development
is anticipated overnight, likely setting up closer to sunrise
Monday morning as the winds settle down. Have made edits to
expand patchy fog wording in the Snake Plain, Baker Valley and
Long Valley for early Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Localized MVFR-LIFR in fog/low
stratus in the W Magic Valley (near KTWF/KJER) and NE Oregon
(KBKE), improving Monday morning. Then, MVFR-LIFR and mtn
obscuration in scattered snow showers and low clouds Monday PM,
mainly central Idaho. Surface winds: variable up to 12 kt. Winds
aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR, except a 20% chance of fog/mist within 5 miles of
terminal between Mon/09Z-15Z. Currently, chance too low to
include in TAF, but will be monitored. Surface winds: light
and variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Northwest flow
continues this afternoon with low clouds and fog over the Blue
Mountains in OR and along the NV border south of Rome OR to
Gooding ID, with clearing across the rest of the area. Low
clouds and fog are forecast to persist over the Magic Valley
tonight with west-northwest flow. Forecast confidence is low
tonight on fog development in the Treasure Valley and around
Baker County. Breezy northwest winds this afternoon 10-20 mph
tapering off after sunset. Good radiational cooling tonight
with patchy fog and temperatures in the 10s and 20s. Dry
conditions on Monday with areas of low clouds and fog possible.
Next weak system arrives on Tuesday with scattered light
showers in the afternoon and snow levels around 3000-4000`.
Minimal precipitation expected with this system, with snow
accumulations around in inch in the mountains.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The long term period
will start of dry, thanks to high pressure over the Pacific
and the departing trough puts our area under dry northerly flow
aloft. This flow aloft will also help keep lower elevation
temperatures near normal, higher elevations will be leaning
above normal. Going into late weekend, it continues to appear
likely that a pattern shift will get underway. As has been the
case, uncertainty remains on when this pattern change will take
place. The GFS ensemble suite continues to favor an earlier
onset (as early as Thursday night), whereas the Euro ensemble
suite favors a later onset. The ridge weakening would allow for
multiple shortwaves to pass across our area while tapping into
some Pacific moisture. This will allow for mild temps with snow
levels around 4-6kft MSL. Precipitation chances will begin to
increase early Friday, making it to 15-30% in lower elevations
and 30-70% in higher elevations (chances increasing with
elevation) Friday afternoon. By Saturday, these chances increase
to 30-50% in lower elevations and 50-85% in higher elevations.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....NF