598
FXUS65 KBOI 172120 CCA
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Boise ID
208 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...The core of the
upper low was supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over SW Idaho. The
thunderstorms will be accompanied by gusty winds to 40 mph and
small hail or graupel. Snow showers at higher elevations could
result in localized light snow amounts, mainly above 6000 feet.
The convection decreases in coverage and intensity later this
evening as the low moves east. Windy conditions this afternoon
(gusting to near 45 mph in s-central Idaho) gradually subside
this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Western
Magic Valley until 7 PM MDT this evening.

A weak upper trough on Tuesday could result in another round of
showers in Baker County and central Idaho Tuesday afternoon.
Instability is marginal once again, but enough to warrant a
slight chance (less than 20 percent) of thunderstorms in central
Idaho. The trough moves northeast Tuesday evening, ending the
convection. A dry and stable southwest flow aloft develops on
Wednesday. Temperatures trend 10-15 degrees warmer on Tuesday
and an additional 5-10 degrees warmer on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Dry conditions and a
warming trend are favored by all the model guidance into the
weekend due to a general southwest flow aloft. There is high
confidence that valley highs will in the 90s by the weekend. Some
of the ensemble members show slightly cooler temperature on
Monday as an upper trough moves through the Pacific Northwest,
although confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will taper off
this evening. Generally VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions in rain
and snow showers. Mountains obscured. Snow levels 4500-6000 ft
MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt, except
gusts 30-40 kt near the Magic Valley terminals, becoming
variable 12 kt or less by 04Z/Tue. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W-NW 20-35 kt.

KBOI...Scattered showers and temporary MVFR ceilings at the
terminal thru 00Z/Tue. Showers have around a 10% chance of
developing into thunderstorms this afternoon in the vicinity of
the terminal. Showers continuing in the vicinity until 03Z/Tue,
becoming mostly clear overnight. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with
gusts 20-30 kt, becoming variable 6 kt or less by 04Z/Tue.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening IDZ016.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....ST