


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
116 FXUS65 KBOI 140926 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 326 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...A closed low centered just off the San Francisco coast this morning is already spreading showers and a few thunderstorms north across southwest Idaho. A jet streak moving across Nevada and Utah are helping to spark this initial activity, which is focused along the Nevada/Idaho border this morning. A slight chance (15 percent) for this activity to push further north into the southern Boise Mountains later this morning as showers gradually continue moving north northwest. As the low shifts inland across California later today, a shift to warmer southerly winds will slightly increase temperatures and provide a 10 to 20 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms, primarily over the highest terrain in Central Idaho. Rainfall will be minimal through this evening, generally less than 0.10 inches, with snow anticipated only on the highest peaks above 7000 feet. A more organized push of moisture will arrive late tonight into Wednesday morning as the storm center moves north and east across Nevada and into Utah. This will set up a band of heavier precipitation across mainly southwest Idaho. Current high res model guidance shows the heaviest rain remaining south of the Rome-Boise-Stanley line. Rainfall totals from this band will be around 0.20 to 0.50 inches by Wednesday night, with noticeably cooler temperatures. Snow levels will drop to 6500 to 7500 feet by Wednesday evening, bringing another 1 to 3 inches of snow to mountain ridgetops in the heaviest showers. The Boise area remains on the northern edge of the heaviest precipitation, with only a 30 percent chance of seeing greater than a tenth of an inch of rain. Cooler northerly flow will settle in behind the exiting low pressure system on Thursday. This will result in mostly dry conditions and keep temperatures about 5 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...As an upper-level low pressure system departs to the east, high pressure building over the northern Pacific will establish a general northwesterly flow across the region. From Friday through early Sunday, this pattern will bring enough moisture for persistent scattered clouds, but with limited instability, precipitation chances will remain below 10%. Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal normals. Significant uncertainty arises in the forecast from Sunday onward, concerning a deep trough approaching the coast. The current forecast maintains a 40-50% chance for precipitation, with snow levels falling to near 5,000 feet MSL and temperatures dropping as much as 10 degrees below normal. However, confidence in this scenario is decreasing. Recent ensemble guidance and a few deterministic models are now showing a weaker trough, with some solutions keeping it from impacting the region entirely.Given the model disagreement, the forecast will maintain chances for a wetter and colder solution for now, but significant changes are possible in the coming days. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR overnight, with local mtn obscuration from low-VFR ceilings. Scattered showers early Tuesday morning will bring low-VFR and local MVFR ceilings and mtn obscurations. Snow levels rising to between 7500-8500 feet MSL. Surface winds: variable or W- NW 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Rain showers possible this morning after 10Z. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt, then light and variable after 12Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JDS AVIATION.....JY