822
FXUS65 KBOU 092354
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
454 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds will continue across the mountains, foothills and
  Cheyenne Ridge through the afternoon with gusts 55-75 mph. Winds
  will diminish these evening and retreat to the higher terrain.

- Northern mountains will see a few inches of snow accumulation
  tonight into Wednesday, with occasionally slick conditions
  possible for passes surrounding Jackson/Grand Counties.

- Another chance for strong winds along the Front Range mountains
  Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, with brief and
  localized gusts up to 70-80 mph at times.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 237 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Downslope winds have peaked across the Front Range, after a very
windy morning which saw widespread gusts 70-95 mph across the
foothills and leeward Front Range mountains. Breezy conditions
will still persist well through the afternoon and evening
however, with localized wind-prone spots still carrying potential
to reach high wind criteria for a few more hours. Will thus
continue the current suite of headlines, although these may be
able to be dropped early as the strongest winds recede back into
the high country.

Tonight, a backdoor cold front will bring a shift to lighter
northeast flow to the plains, and a few low clouds to the lower
elevations as well into early Wednesday morning. Moisture looks
much too shallow to support any meaningful precipitation chances
for the lower elevations. That`s not the case for our northern
mountains, where we`ll see a reinforcement of moisture and
westerly flow aloft. As such, snow showers should first develop
late this evening, increasing overnight into Wednesday morning,
and tapering off rather quickly in the evening. Accumulations will
be focused over the Park and Medicine Bow Ranges with 1-5" mainly
above 10,000 ft. Slick conditions can be expected at times over
Rabbit Ears and Cameron Passes, with a much lower probability of
any impacts to passes closer to the I-70 corridor.

Ridgetop winds will remain quite robust during daytime hours
Wednesday, so higher elevations will continue to see gusts 45-65
mph with patchy blowing snow, but these shouldn`t extend much
beyond those most susceptible leeward slopes.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 237 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wind speeds may pick up again over the high country Wednesday
evening and continue overnight and possibly into Thursday morning.
However, confidence is decreasing in a widespread high wind event
across the Front Range mountains. Looking at upper level flow, we
are progged to generally be in the right exit region of the jet
stream Wednesday night, with cross-barrier flow of 40-50 kts. There
is good agreement between models of decent QG fields across the
northeastern part of the state, promoting subsidence aloft. But,
recent model runs show that flow aloft has turned more northwest and
decreased slightly. In addition, forecasted surface pressure
gradients between Grand Junction and Denver have decreased to 10-
13mb. With cross-sections and modeled soundings indicating a weak
stable layer and some shear at higher levels, the high country
likely would only see brief and localized wind gusts between 70-80
mph, with the wind-prone areas across the foothills and adjacent
plains seeing gusts up to 45 mph. For that reason, have opted out
for a High Wind Watch for now, but will continue to monitor for any
changes.

West/northwesterly winds will gradually decrease during the day on
Thursday. With compressional heating, daytime temperatures could be
10-20 degrees above normal across the plains. Exactly how warm we
will get will depend on the strength and duration of the downsloping
winds. Generally expect widespread temperatures in the mid 60s, with
the possibility of high 60s/low 70s across the eastern plains.

Thursday and into the weekend, we will see a drying trends across
our forecast area as an upper level ridge continues to build over
the southwestern United States. An arctic airmass will dip into
the eastern part of our country on Friday, which will likely
bring temperatures back to seasonal normals for our eastern
plains. However, ensemble solutions still indicate that the areas
closer to the foothills will reach up to the high 50s. For the
weekend, temperatures will stay above normal as the upper level
ridge shifts over Colorado.

Ensemble guidance has continued to show a weak shortwave traversing
the region at the beginning of next week. Without much forcing
associated with this disturbance, only light orographic snow showers
are expected for the high country at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 441 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. Wind gusts have
weakened at KDEN this evening, are intermittent at KAPA, and
remain strong at KBJC. The W/NW winds this afternoon will turn
more to the N/NE around 5Z or 6Z at KDEN and KAPA, as a weak
front moves over the area. Winds will turn more southerly towards
drainage flow overnight and early tomorrow morning. There is
potential for few or sct low clouds near 015 tomorrow morning
over KDEN from 9Z to 16Z. Winds will increase and become gusty
from the W/NW at KDEN and KBJC tomorrow afternoon. Winds however
will be weaker than what we saw today, with gusts generally around
25kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ033>035-038-
042.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRQ
LONG TERM...MAI
AVIATION...AP