582
FXUS65 KBOU 222348
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
448 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another light precipitation event is possible Sunday and Sunday
  night, with light snow above ~7,000 ft and light rain lower
  elevations.

- Becoming windy Monday to Tuesday, and turning colder.

- Some moderation with diminishing chances of any snow through
  Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 257 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Shortwave ridging over Colorado has brought dry conditions and
slightly above normal temperatures over the forecast area for the
day. With relatively light winds aloft, expect a quiet night ahead
of an approaching system.

Models are in good agreement of an upper level low trekking across
the forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening, with the trough axis
centered over east central Colorado. Due to this track, the best
areas for measurable precipitation will be the southern Front Range
mountains and southern/eastern plains. Ensemble`s 25th-75th
percentiles range between 0.1"-0.4" of QPF, but can`t rule out a
narrow band of localized higher amounts due to frontogenetical
forcing under the deformation zone. Recent ensemble and
deterministic runs have continued to trend downwards in
precipitation across the northern Front Range mountains and northern
I-25 corridor- have lowered PoPs Sunday through Monday for that
reason. In terms of precipitation type, rain is expected for
elevations below 7,000 ft. Snowfall amounts will most likely range
from T-4", with highest amounts confined to the high passes. Areas
along and south of I-70 will see slick roads Sunday evening and into
Monday morning.

By Monday afternoon, flow aloft will turn west/northwesterly as a
fast-moving upper level shortwave crosses just north of the forecast
area. This system could bring light orographic snow showers to
the northern Front Range mountains, with minimal accumulation and
travel impacts. However, the rest of the forecast area will likely
remain dry due to the northerly track of the system. Model
guidance has trended towards weaker cross-barrier flow, with only
a couple of Sangster runs showing a 20% chance of winds reaching
above 60 kts. We will continue to monitor model trends, but at
this time no high wind highlights are expected.

A potent cold front associated with the upper level system will
travel across the forecast area Monday night and into Tuesday
morning. Morning lows will range from 20s to the low 30s along
the plains and teens to low 20s in the mountains and valleys.
Wednesday morning temperatures are expected to be colder, with
most of the plains in the mid teens-low 20s and mountains and
valleys ranging from single digits to mid-teens.

A warming trend will return for Thanksgiving and Friday as flat
ridging settles over the southwestern United States. Cross-barrier
flow could create windy conditions along the higher terrain,
however expect generally mild, albeit quiet weather days late
this week. The only exception would be if an embedded shortwave
crosses the state, which would bring orographic snow showers to
the northern mountains. Towards the end of the holiday weekend,
ensemble guidance has continued to indicate a disturbance bringing
colder temperatures and a chance of our first snow showers to the
plains. However, there are still many discrepancies between
model runs on exactly how this system will evolve. We will
continue to monitor any changes in guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday/...
Issued at 430 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period. Current
easterly winds are expected to transition to the south through the
evening, with a slight enhancement in drainage winds expected to
pick up around 4Z/5Z at KDEN/KAPA, and continue into the early
morning hours.

By Sunday afternoon, precipitation is expected to move from south
to north into the region, with increasing chances by 21Z/22Z at
KAPA, followed by KDEN/KBJC by the early evening (between 23Z/1Z).
The main impacts will be lowering CIGs, with the lowest CIGs
expected after sunset, dropping as low as 5,000 feet AGL.
Precipitation is expected to remain light across the TAF sites,
though KAPA will have the best chances. All precipitation is
expected to move out of the TAF sites by late Sunday night.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...9