551
FXUS65 KBOU 011109
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
509 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth possible on Sunday.

- Generally quiet conditions through the next several days.

- Next chance of mountain precipitation comes late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 111 PM MDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Skies have cleared over the past few hours, as the batch of high
cloud cover has sunk southward. We`re left with cool northwesterly
flow aloft, and temperatures have struggled to warm into the 40s
across the Denver metro. ACARS soundings suggest that the
inversion at ~800mb was a little stronger than guidance originally
indicated, and thus we`ve been a little slower to warm today.
Highs today were lowered slightly but there should be enough
mixing to reach the upper 40s or low 50s.

Ridging should start to build back across the region by Saturday,
leading to a robust warming trend for the weekend. Highs tomorrow
should get into the low 60s with generally light winds. By Sunday,
a pretty impressive mid-level thermal ridge should be directly
over the region, with zonal flow aloft also aiding in some weak
downslope. Deterministic and statistical guidance both call for
near record or record highs across the Denver metro, with highs
generally in the upper 70s. There may also be some spotty
elevated/critical fire weather concerns in spots.

A brief cooldown is likely on Monday as a weak shortwave tracks
across the state, but temperatures will still remain above
normal. Zonal flow is likely to develop by mid-week next week,
leading to another prolonged period of warm, dry, and breezy
conditions across the forecast area.

There`s still hints of a shortwave by Thursday or Friday. Guidance
favors a little QPF over the northern mountains, but there`s
little hope for meaningful precipitation over the lower
elevations. Even 90th percentile QPF from the ECMWF ensemble is
0.00" at DEN... and the extended range forecasts from the CPC
don`t look particularly encouraging for winter weather enthusiasts
going through the first half of November.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 506 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Light S to SSW winds will become light and variable in direction
by 16z. Winds by 20z will become light NE and then transition to
SE by 00z. Drainage winds will be in place by 03z. VFR conditions
will remain in place thru the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...RPK