038
FXUS65 KBOU 261841
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1141 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light snow showers over the high mountains today with
  isolated snow showers over the northern plains this afternoon.

- Mild and dry for Thanksgiving and Friday.

- First taste of winter weather this weekend, with snow likely
  Friday night and into Saturday morning.

- Second round of snow is possible Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 309 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Current satellite pictures are showing an area of cloudiness
moving into the CWA in the strong northwesterly flow aloft. Water
vapor pictures and QG fields show a bit of synoptic scale energy
just upstream associated with this incoming cloudiness. Cross
sections are showing enough lower level moisture in the mountains
along with some orographic mountain top flow to keep the 20-45%
alpine pops going mainly north of 1-70 through the day. There is
even a tiny bit measurable precipitation on the QPF fields for
the northern border plains this afternoon. There looks be decent
downsloping winds mainly in the mountains and higher foothills.
Will increase the sky cover for much of the CWA today and this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 243 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Strong northwesterly flow aloft will continue through Wednesday.
This flow is currently helping to produce gusty winds across the
northeast plains with plenty of reports of gusts in the 45-50 mph
range near the Nebraska border. Winds will relax tonight across
the plains.

During the day on Wednesday, a very subtle shortwave trough will
move across far northern Colorado. Some Pacific moisture
associated with this trough will bring clouds and some light snow
showers to the mountains. The Park Range and Medicine Bow Range
will see snow amounts in the 1-3" range along the peaks. Some
light rain or snow showers could make their way onto the far
northeast plains. PoPs were increased to add a mention of
precipitation in the forecast mainly north and east of Fort
Morgan. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a cool day with mostly cloudy
skies and temperatures near or slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 143 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Upper level ridging moves across the region Thursday and early
Friday. This will bring dry conditions throughout the area.
Temperatures for Thanksgiving climb above normal with highs in the
lower to mid 50s across northeast Colorado. Ridging aloft moves
off to the east and westerly flow aloft increases ahead of an
upper level trough dropping southward from the Northern Rockies.
We will see one more warm day Friday with high temperatures around
60 degrees over northeast Colorado. Surface low pressure deepens
over eastern Colorado Friday afternoon. This should cause westerly
winds to increase during the day in the mountains, foothills, and
possibly the plains.

The upper level trough and a surface cold front drops southward
across the area Friday night. Snow is expected to spread southward
out of Wyoming Friday night and linger into Saturday morning
across north central and northeast Colorado. Snowfall amounts are
expected to be on the light side with this being a quick moving
system. Operational model runs are in generally good agreement
with the timing and placement of this system. However, the
ensemble members paint a fuzzier picture with many of them not
showing snowfall for this time period, thus will keep PoPs mainly
in the 40-60 percent range until the ensemble members come into
better agreement. What is in good agreement is we will see the
coldest air of the season move into the area for the weekend. A
second system will be possible for Sunday with another round of
light possible for the entire area. Again, operational model runs
are in fairly good agreement with this system as well, but the
ensemble members show a much wider range of solutions. Therefore
will keep PoPs in the chance range (30-50%) for Sunday.

If traveling for Thanksgiving expect mild and dry conditions
through Friday. However, the return trip home may not be as nice
with two chances for light snow, Friday night/early Saturday, and
then Sunday. Snowfall amounts look to be on the lighter side, but
with cold temperatures in place, it is expected to be cold enough
for roads to become slippery at times.

For next week, another trough dives south over British Columbia
and the Pacific Northwest setting up a reinforcing shot of colder
air and possibly snow for the middle part of next week. Ahead of
it, we will see westerly flow aloft and slight ridging.
Temperatures slow warm Monday and Tuesday ahead of the approaching
upper level trough. However, temperatures are still expected to
be below normal. If we see enough moisture embedded in the
westerly flow aloft, some light mountain snow will be possible
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1132 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will be
light and variable for the majority of the day today. Typical
diurnal wind patterns will occur tonight.

It appears a DCVZ will setup on the east side of Denver tomorrow.
This will likely keep winds out of the north at BJC and DEN. APA
winds will be difficult to forecast but may end up being light and
variable.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......66
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Danielson