673
FXUS65 KBOU 102156
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
256 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds will continue along the Front Range mountains and
  foothills through midday Thursday. Gusts will be between 70-80
  mph.

- Breezy winds and above normal temperatures Thursday.

- An extended period of dry and mild weather will last through the
  middle of next week, with above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 256 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Current surface observations across the high country show wind gusts
up to 70 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph (aside from an isolated gust
up to 68 near the Rocky Flats) across the wind-prone areas along the
foothills. While we haven`t met high wind criteria yet, we do expect
the winds to peak later this afternoon and into the evening.

SPC upper air analysis shows northwest flow aloft, with Colorado
generally being in the right exit region of the jet stream.
Modeled cross-sections have a decent ridgetop stable layer as well
as a wave induced critical layer for this afternoon/evening. In
addition, surface pressure gradients between Grand Junction and
Denver will likely increase to 11-14 mb. With these ingredients,
we do expect winds to gust up to 80 mph periodically across the
high country. High resolution models have consistently been
indicating channels of winds along the foothills and adjacent
plains, so expect isolated wind gusts up to 55 mph through the
evening. Overnight Wednesday, there will be a brief lull in strong
winds before it could pick up again Thursday morning, as cross-
sections indicate another critical layer forming. For this reason,
still expect High Wind Warning to continue till 11 AM Thursday
morning. However, if guidance changes this evening/overnight, the
warning could expire earlier.

Due to continuous downsloping winds, Thursday morning low
temperatures will be above normal. Across the plains, expect to wake
up to temperatures between high 30s and mid 40s. Denver`s record
warmest minimum temperature for December 11th is 44 degrees (set in
1933) and our current forecasted low is 43. We will keep any eye out
for any record-breaking minimum temperatures. The warming trend
will continue throughout the day Thursday, as breezy northwest
winds (gusting up to 45 mph a times) will aid in compressional
heating and allow temperatures to reach the mid-to-high 60s across
the plains (~20 degrees above normal!). Other than that, dry
conditions will prevail for the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
Issued at 256 PM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Pressure gradients will continue to slacken Thursday night, bringing
significant improvements to windy conditions across the mountains
and foothills through the overnight hours. An anomalous surface high
(2.4 - 3.1 sigma above normal) over western Canada will start to
usher arctic air into the northern US. This will be the main area of
uncertainty for the extended period, as the northern corner of
Colorado is situated along the temperature gradient, with Colorado
being on the warmer extent of the cold air. If the cold air pushes
just slightly southward, temperatures across the far northeast
plains could be 5-10 degrees colder than what is in the current
forecast, though the extreme cold temperatures are not expected to
make it into Colorado. The coldest temperatures are expected
overnight Saturday into Sunday, and though there is around a 6
degree spread between ensemble means, temps are forecast to drop
into the teens for locations along the Nebraska border. While
temperatures will be colder over the northeastern plains, well
above normal temperatures are expected across the forecast area
through the period, with afternoon high temperatures forecast to
reach the upper 50s/low 60s along the urban corridor each day.

Persistent northwesterly flow on the eastern side of upper level
ridging will remain in place for the majority of the extended
period. Despite the influx of Pacific moisture pumping into the
Pacific Northwest over the coming days, Colorado will remain too
far south to reap any benefits. Ensembles show widespread dry
conditions are expected through the weekend, with only some light
snowfall potential for the mountains towards the tail end of the
forecast period. The ridge is expected to gradually shift eastward
early next week, and ensembles are still holding onto a weak
shortwave traversing the region around Monday/Tuesday, though
they still show slight discrepancies on strength and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1036 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds should stay below 15
kts for the next couple of hours before stronger westerly winds
mix down to the surface for all terminals. BJC will likely gust up
to 40 kts throughout the day, however there is a chance that the
stronger winds stay just west of the airport. If the mountain wave
stays west of BJC, westerly winds may stay under 20 kts. For DEN
and APA, gusts up to 30 kts are possible this afternoon, so have
introduced a TEMPO from 20Z to 23Z. This evening, westerly winds
should weaken and stay generally under 20 kts, with occasional
gusts up to 25 kts at times.

Tomorrow, westerly winds will dominate all TAF sites again. There
is higher confidence of prevailing gusts up to 35 kts for all TAF
sites, before weakening in the late afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ033>035.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAI
LONG TERM...9
AVIATION...MAI