105
FXUS65 KBOU 020513
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1113 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warmth possible on Sunday, with elevated fire
  weather conditions across the northern plains.

- Generally quiet conditions through the next several days.

- Next chance of mountain precipitation comes late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Current satellite shows a thin sheet of cirrus over Colorado
slowly dissipating. Due to this, we have been slow to warm across
the plains. ACARS soundings still have a shallow temperature
inversion, which may inhibit temperatures to reach their
forecasted high today by a degree or two. With subsidence aloft,
clearing skies and quiet conditions are expected this evening.

Northwest flow aloft will turn more zonal on Sunday as an upper
level ridge shifts eastward into southwestern United States. The
axis of a mid-level thermal ridge will be situated over the
plains, with 700-mb temperatures between +10C to +12C by the
afternoon. With light downsloping winds aiding in compressional
heating, high temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper 70s. There
is a chance to tie or break Denver`s record high temperature,
which is 78 (set in 2008).

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the northern
plains on Sunday- particularly in Logan, Sedgwick and Phillips
counties, where 80% of the GEFS members have an HWDI value greater
than the 75th percentile. Dry downslope winds off the Cheyenne
ridge will likely promote RH values in the low-to-mid teens, with
wind gusts up to 20 mph. Modeled Skew-T soundings indicate steep
lapse rates (almost dry adiabatic) across the plains, so it is
possible for localized stronger wind gusts up to 30 mph to mix
down to the surface.

There will be a brief cooldown on Monday as a weak upper level
shortwave traverses the region and pushes the thermal ridge
southeastward. However, no precipitation is expected with this
system. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler. Zonal
flow will return by midweek, along with warm and dry conditions.

Ensemble guidance has been trending towards a more northward track
of the upper level shortwave on Thursday. For us, this means a
less likely chance of precipitation in mountains. NBM PoPs have
10-20% across the northern portions of the higher elevations,
which seems reasonable given the northward trend of this system.
However, if guidance starts trending back southward, precipitation
chances will increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Drainage winds overnight will become light and variable by 16z
Sun. BJC may see a few periods of gusty west winds thru 10z.
By 20Z Sun, winds will become more NNW and then become more NNE
by 23z. By 02Z winds will gradually transition to SE. VFR
conditions are expected thru the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...RPK