757
FXUS61 KBOX 091728
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1228 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture starved shortwave crosses the region tonight with a
period of mainly scattered light snow showers. A more
significant disturbance brings much milder temperatures and a
period of mainly rain Wednesday afternoon and evening with any
snow confined to the highest terrain of the Berkshires and
northern Worcester Hills. A cold front crosses the region later
Wednesday night...bringing mainly dry, but blustery and cold
weather returning Thursday into Friday. Low pressure may bring
snow with even some ice/rain to the region Saturday night into
Sunday depending on its track. This will be followed by another
shot of arctic air and well below normal temperatures early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Cold/dry conditions persist for the rest of the afternoon

* Southerly winds support increasing temperatures overnight

* Slight chance for some snow showers mainly across eastern MA

Rest of Today and Tonight

High pressure continues to support sunny skies, light winds, and
dry weather for the rest of the afternoon. As high pressure
shifts east overnight, return flow from the south will support
increasing temperatures through day break. Thus, we can actually
expect the overnight low to occur around midnight. A moisture
starved short-wave disturbance aloft moves overhead after
midnight. This may support a few widely scattered snow showers,
mainly across eastern MA. Not expecting any significant impacts
or accumulations with only a dusting at locations where snow
showers develop. Temperatures rise to the mid to upper 20s
across most of interior southern New England by sunrise. Low 20s
for northwest MA/high elevations and upper 30s to low 40s for
Cape/Islands.



&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* Increasing cloudiness tomorrow with more mild temperatures
  during the day

* Rain/snow Showers overspread the region from west to east
  tomorrow afternoon and evening

* Cold front clears clouds/showers out overnight and is followed
  by cold/blustery conditions

Wednesday and Wednesday Night

Warm advection and strong southerly winds support increasing
temperatures tomorrow with 925 and 850 hPa temps rising to near 0C
by the afternoon. This will support mild surface temperatures in the
upper 40s to low 50s across southeastern MA and RI tomorrow. Areas
across western MA and CT will be much cooler in the upper 30s to low
40s. Rain/snow showers begin to overspread the region from west to
east tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Mainly expecting
rain with some snow showers possible at the higher elevations
of The Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills. Accumulations
will be minor, but may approach 1-2 inches on the east slopes of
The Berks. Elsewhere, mainly in Worcester County, only
expecting a dusting if any accumulation at all.

A cold front moves over the region tomorrow night and clears
skies from west to east after midnight. This will be followed by
a brisk west/northwest wind and temperatures dipping back down
into the upper 20s/low 30s by Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Lingering showers/highest terrain snow showers depart Wed evening

* Cold and windy Thu with continued cold weather Fri...Highs in the
  upper 20s/30s with dry weather outside a brief spot snow shower

* Low pressure may bring snow or even some ice/rain to the region
  Sat night into Sun depending on its track which remains uncertain

* Another shot of arctic air Mon into Tue with unseasonably
  cold highs in the 20s to the lower 30s and mainly dry weather

Details...

Wednesday night...

Intensifying low pressure moves eastward along the northern New
England and Quebec border Wednesday night...dragging a cold front
across our region. Lingering rain showers with any snow showers
confined to the highest terrain of the Berks/northern Worcester
Hills will come to an end Wednesday evening. It will turn rather
blustery behind this cold front later Wednesday night with
increasing west winds. Overnight low temps should mainly be in the
25 to 35 degree range with the mildest of those readings near and
southeast of the I-95 corridor.

Thursday...

Windy and colder weather returns to the region on Thursday. Strong
cold advection will result in 850T dropping to between -13C/-14c.
This should result in steady or slowly falling temperatures with
afternoon temperatures mainly in the upper 20s to the middle 30s.
Bufkit indicates excellent mixing which should yield westerly wind
gusts of 25 to 40 mph. This will result in afternoon wind chill
values mainly in the teens to the lower 20s.

Dry weather should generally prevail...but given cold westerly flow
some remnant lake effect moisture may result in a brief spot snow
shower/flurry or two.

Thursday night and Friday...

Strong low pressure just east of the Canadian Maritimes will
continue to generate a blustery westerly flow of dry but cold air
into southern New England. Lows Thu night will mainly be in the
teens to the middle 20s with highs Fri in the upper 20s and middle
30s.

This Weekend...

The forecast becomes rather complex this weekend. Low pressure
developing in the Tennessee Valley will be lifting northeast towards
the mid-Atlantic states. At the same time...northern stream energy
will be dropping another shot of arctic air into the Great Lakes.
The timing and amplitude of this shortwave energy will determine the
track of the low pressure system. FWIW the latest 00z guidance has
trended north with this low pressure system...particularly some of
the EPS/CMC ensembles. That being said...there was still significant
spread though among many of the individual ensembles. While plenty
of uncertainty remains...the trend was towards a greater risk for a
period of snow Sat night into Sun. However...the potential for more
northern solutions also introduces the risk for some ice/rain
getting involved especially south of I-90. We will need a few more
days to have a better idea on this potential...but certainly
something to watch in the next few days.

Monday and Tuesday...

Regardless of what happens this weekend...it appears that another
shot of arctic air with well below normal temperatures will move
into the region early next week. Highs probably will only be in the
20s to the lower 30s and perhaps even colder than that if the latest
00z ECMWF verifies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update...

Through 00Z... High Confidence

VFR. Light southwest winds

Tonight...High Confidence

Mainly VFR with some MVFR cloud bases right around 3000 feet
possible. Low chance for some snow showers between roughly
03-07Z as a weak disturbance moves over the region. Winds
becoming more steady out of the southwest with speeds increasing
to around 10 knots with some 20 knot gusts possible over The
Cape/Islands.

Tomorrow... High Confidence in trends, moderate in timing

VFR likely through 18Z, then MVFR ceilings overspread the region
from west to east with -RA. Not expecting MVFR ceilings to reach
BOS/PVD until 20-22Z time frame. Cape/Islands terminals don`t
fall below VFR until after 00Z.

Tomorrow Night... High Confidence

MVFR ceilings reach Cape/Islands between 00-06Z. Conditions
gradually improve back to VFR between 06-12Z as a cold front
sweeps across the region. Winds shift to the west/northwest
behind the front with sustained winds around 15 knots.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate Confidence in TAF.

Low chance for -SN overnight between roughly 03-09Z.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
30 kt. Slight chance SHSN.

Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Wednesday night...High confidence.

Gale Watch upgraded to gale warning for tonight and tomorrow as
a LLJ allows for SW wind gusts of 35 knots to develop over the
coastal waters. Showers move over the coastal waters tomorrow
evening and tomorrow night. Gale force winds mainly from the
southwest through Thursday morning.

Outlook /Thursday through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow
showers.

Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
chance of snow showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frank/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/RM
MARINE...Frank/RM