616
FXUS61 KBOX 162001
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
301 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly and windy conditions continue through Monday and Tuesday with
decreasing winds Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure
settles in. Quick moving frontal system arrives Friday into the
weekend bringing a period of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:

* Windy with falling temperatures through tonight

Isolated showers continue to move over parts of the interior this
afternoon and are expected to continue to do so through the rest of
today. Mostly light rain is associated with these, with some snow
showers possible towards the higher elevations (Berkshires, parts of
the Worcester Hills). Not much is expected to accumulate, though; at
most, a localized total of an inch or two towards the
Berkshires. Gusty winds are expected to continue through the
afternoon, primarily between 30 and 35 kts, with isolated and
infrequent higher gusts possible towards the Berkshires.

Temperatures continue to fall through the rest of the day and will
dip into the 20s and low 30s overnight as 925 mb temperatures reach
-4C. Latest guidance indicates 850 mb winds around 40 kts for much
of the region overnight. Gusty westerly winds between 25-35 kts will
likely continue into tonight even with the lack of diurnal mixing,
leading to wind chill values in the teens and low 20s across
southern New England.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Breezy with below normal temperatures and a continued mix of sun
  and clouds

The upper level low dominating the latest pattern will continue to
move across New England Monday, shifting more NE heading into
Tuesday morning. Temperatures at 925 mb improve to -2C during the
day Monday; highs in the upper 30s and low 40s will be supported as
a result. Gusty winds will once again be supported by good mixing up
to 850 mb.

As the trough moves into the Maritimes, surface low pressure moves
off with it and high pressure continues to creep its way towards the
region. The gradient between these two centers is expected to weaken
very slightly going into Tuesday morning, so while breezy conditions
are still expected going into Monday night, gusts should be more
limited to around 25 kts over the higher elevations, Cape Cod, and
the Islands (should be below 20 kts elsewhere). Dry conditions due
to a lack of forcing and cooling aloft will continue through this
period with a mix of sun and clouds. Lows Monday night are expected
to once again settle into the 20s and low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Dry and blustery Tue with below normal temps

* Less wind Wed-Thu but still cooler than normal

* Unsettled weather with milder temps Fri-Sat

Upper low continues to move northeast into the Maritimes into
Tuesday. Overall the upper air pattern deamplifies into zonal
flow midweek before another shortwave disturbance arrives by the
weekend. Breezy conditions continue into Tuesday behind
departing surface low. Much drier airmass with PWATS falling
well below 0.5" Wed-Thu as high pres moves into the region. Weak
shortwave moves through Thu but global ensembles have continued
to trend further south with the bulk of the precipitation. The
pattern becomes a bit more complex this weekend as a pronounced
northern stream dives south across the Great Lakes. Temps will
remain below normal through Thu with highs mostly in the 40s,
then milder conditions anticipated Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update...

Rest of Today...High confidence.

Lingering stratus and fog in the interior have cleared, leading
to VFR conditions across the region. A few passing showers
remain possible through this afternoon (and we`ve already seen
some around ORH and in CT), especially over the interior with
scattered SNSH across the Berkshires. W winds with gusts to
30-35 kt continue through this afternoon with a few gusts to 40
kt possible over higher elevations and ACK.

Tonight and Monday...High confidence.

VFR, but a few snow showers with lower conditions in the
Berkshires tonight. W winds continue gusting 20-35 kts.

Monday Night...High confidence.

VFR. W winds finally diminish over land. Gusts around 25 kts
remain possible over Cape Cod and the Islands, but elsewhere
should remain below 20 kts. Sustained winds around 10 kts,
though slightly elevated over ACK and MVY.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
RA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale Warnings Continue into Mon and Mon Night.

Gusts to 35-40 kt with sustained W winds from 20 to 35 kt are
expected to continue into tonight and Monday after a cold front
passed through this morning. Seas continue to build into
tonight, peaking at 12-14 ft over the southern waters. Winds
will remain gusty into part of tomorrow night as well as seas
begin to decrease.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hrencecin/FT
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...FT
AVIATION...Hrencecin/FT
MARINE...Hrencecin/FT