418
FXUS61 KBOX 020646
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
246 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues today with near-seasonable temperatures
as high pressure to our north brings decreasing northeast winds.
Warming trend then begins on Friday, heralding a potential
multi-day stretch of above normal high temperatures in the
lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. Dry weather is
expected to prevail through early next week, with our next
chance for rainfall not anticipated until the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
245 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Decreasing northeast breezes for eastern and southeast coastal New
  England, but with a mix of sun and clouds and highs lower 60s.

* Mostly clear with light winds for interior Southern New England,
  with highs in the mid/upper 60s.

Details:

Governing weather pattern is little changed early this morning,
with a 1032 mb high pressure area extending a surface ridge
axis through New England into the Carolina Piedmont. This is
associated with a cool and dry airmass, with precipitable water
values per regional 00z RAOB analyses down to around 0.35". For
most of interior Southern New England, as you head outside this
morning it will certainly feel every bit like an typical early-
autumn morning with temps down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Stronger NE winds continue across eastern and southeast MA,
adjacent portions of RI and particularly across the Cape and
Islands where NE winds have been gusting to around 25-30 mph.
This has led to temps running well into the 50s. While skies
were clear in most locations, infrared satellite reveals an
increasing field of cold air stratocumulus over the Gulf of
Maine with the cooler air over the milder waters; this
cloudiness was poised to advect southwestward into southeastern
New England this morning.

Despite the cooler and in some isolated locations frosty start
in the interior, shaping up to be a really nice Thursday as
plenty of sun should allow for temps to recover pretty well
today. We`ll be able to mix down even drier air this afternoon
and dewpoints around the low 30s seem achiveable in interior
Southern New England, which will dry out soils as RHs drop to
around 30-40 percent. While still breezy across southeast MA and
the Cape and Islands this morning the trend will be for
decreasing northeast winds, and we`ll see more of a mix of sun
and stratocumulus clouds across RI, the South Coast and the Cape
and Islands. Highs mainly in the 60s, with cooler lower-60s
readings over the eastern coast of MA and into the mid to upper
60s for the CT Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
245 AM Update:

Key Messages:

* Clear and dry with light winds tonight, lows in the upper 30s to
  mid 40s.

* Warming trend starts Fri, with full sun and highs in the lower to
  mid 70s, but cooler upper 60s along the immediate South Coast and
  Cape and Islands. Modest southwest breezes.

Details:

Tonight:

High pressure becomes centered south of Southern New England
tonight, which will generate optimal radiational cooling with light
winds and anticipated strong hourly temperature falls after sundown.
High clouds are expected to stream in early in the evening, which
will herald the arrival of much-warmer air over the upper Midwest/Gt
Lakes region that moves in for late in the week/this weekend. Lows
eventually bottom out to the upper 30s to mid 40s given modest warm
advection.

Friday:

High pressure remains anchored south of Southern New England for
Fri, which will bring an increased southerly flow but not
particularly breezy with winds around 10 mph. Although will see some
high clouds continue to stream in, looking at a much warmer Fri
compared to the last few days as 925 mb temps warm to around +10-
12C. The southern coast will be a little cooler with highs in the
upper 60s given the SW winds off the water, but highs elsewhere
should reach into the lower to mid 70s when factoring in SW
downsloping and the warm feedback from the dry soil conditions
resulting in daytime temps overachieving by a few degrees of late.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Above normal temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early
  next week. Possible multi-day stretch of low to mid 80s temps away
  from the coasts. Fire weather concerns possible too.

* Next chance for rain around Wed or Wed night.

Details:

An anomalously strong mid to upper level ridge for early October
will be building into Southern New England this weekend and into
early next week. This will bring a period of above to well above
normal temperatures and continued dry weather conditions. In fact we
could be looking at a multi-day stretch of highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s. Although ensemble probabilistic temperature datasets show
low (30% or less) probs of highs in the mid 80s this weekend, think
values this high are a conceivable outcome given the continued warm
advection and the dry soils providing a warm-feedback on temps. Bias-
corrected temperature datasets probably will perform pretty well for
this timeframe. While winds are light (seabreezes near the coasts),
RHs are likely to be on the lower side and that could lead to
elevated fire weather concerns on most days this weekend into early
next week. Southwest winds are noticeably stronger on Tue, so that
could be one day where fire weather concerns appear greatest.

As we`ve been mentioning, this is a very dry pattern we`re stuck in.
Our next chance for rain arrives with a cold front around Wed or Wed
night, with latest ensembles slowing this front`s arrival again by
another 12 hours or so.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Thursday: High confidence.

VFR for most, though SCT-BKN stratocumulus bases around low end
VFR to MVFR may start to develop over the Cape airports after
08z. Light north winds in the interior, but stronger NE winds
around 10-15 kt for eastern/southeast MA, with continued gusts
25-28 kt for the Cape.

Today: High confidence.

Largely VFR, though low-end VFR/MVFR stratocumulus clouds over
southeast airports should lift/scatter out by 18z. Decreasing NE
winds through early this afternoon, with light E/SE winds
towards late this afternoon.

Tonight and Friday: High confidence.

VFR. Light winds tonight, then becoming southerly 5-10 kt on
Fri.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. NE winds 10-15 kt lighten
by 15z, then begin a slow clockwise turn to ESE thru late
afternoon, speeds under 10 kt.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Gale warnings have been downshifted to SCAs for nearshore and
the ocean waters into Thurs or Thurs evening (outer waters). NE
winds over the southeast waters remain around 25-30 kt this
morning, but will becoming increasingly sub-SCA as we move into
the afternoon. It will take longer for seas to subside below SCA
criteria but expect that SCAs can be dropped by overnight
tonight.

Winds and seas are sub-SCA for Friday, with SW winds around
10-15 kt (locally around 20 kt over northeast waters) and seas
3-4 ft.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Loconto
SHORT TERM...Loconto
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto
MARINE...Loconto