287
FXUS61 KBOX 101850
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
150 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching low pressure allows mainly rain to overspread the
region from west to east this evening with any snow confined to
the highest terrain of the Berkshires and northern Worcester
Hills. A cold front crosses the region later tonight...bringing
mainly dry but windy and much colder weather Thursday into
Thursday night. Wind chills Thursday night to range between 5
below zero and up to 10 above zero. Blustery and cold
temperatures continue into Friday. Still can`t rule out wintry
weather Saturday night into Sunday, but the chances have
decreased. Another shot of modified Arctic air returns for
Monday to go along with gusty northwest winds. Temperatures
start to modify on Tuesday, heralding a possible pattern change
toward milder temperatures starting around the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages

* Brief period of rain/snow late this afternoon/evening into
  the midnight hours

* Skies clear overnight with blustery west/northwest winds developing


An area of surface-low pressure passes north of southern New England
tonight. This frontal wave will bring a period of rainfall to
southern New England later this afternoon and into the midnight
hours. Snow more likely for the higher terrain, particularly the
east slopes of The Berkshires, where 1 to 2 inches of snow may fall
by the time all is said and done. Other elevated areas in central MA
may see a dusting of snow as well, but overall a low-impact
weather event. Rain accumulations elsewhere generally around a
quarter of an inch or less. As a cold front associated with the
surface low pushes through the region after midnight,
west/northwest winds behind the front will usher a cooler/drier
air mass into the region. Skies clear from west to east with
temperatures dropping to the mid to upper 20s by tomorrow
morning. Sustained winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts up
to 25 mph by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages

* Wind Advisory in effect for interior high elevations and coastal
  areas

* West/northwest wind gusts up to 50 mph tomorrow afternoon into
  tomorrow night

* Cold and blustery conditions will support single digit wind chill
  temperatures Thursday night

Thursday and Thursday Night

A strong low-level jet develops over southern New England tomorrow
in the wake of a cold frontal passage. A west/northwest CAA
regime will be in place for roughly a 24 hour period and will
support a period of strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts.
Ensembles support an average of 35 knot winds in the PBL
(roughly surface to 850 hPa) with winds peaking around 50 knots
at the top of the PBL tomorrow afternoon. These values then
increase to 45-60 knots tomorrow night. Bufkit soundings support
40+ knot wind gusts at coastal locations and over the higher
terrain between tomorrow morning and tomorrow night. Elsewhere,
wind gusts will be flirting with advisory criteria with peak
gusts in the 35-40 knot range, but confidence not high enough at
this time to include the other forecast zones in the advisory.
If confidence increases, the rest of southern New England may be
included in the advisory.

In addition to the strong winds, we`ll see a significant drop in
temperatures from Wednesday-Thursday. High temps peak in the 30s on
Thursday, followed by temps bottoming out in the teens by Friday
morning. The strong west/northwest winds will support wind chill
values in the single digits for much of the region on Friday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Chilly and still rather windy Fri, although winds/gusts ease
  through the day.

* Still can`t rule out possible accumulating wintry weather Sat
  night into Sun, but the chances have decreased.

* Windy and cold Monday, modifying some on Tue.

* Possible warm-up by midweek?

Details:

Friday:

Latest guidance has slowed down the cessation of winds and wind
gusts until later into the day on Fri. Lingering effects from the
period of gusty NW winds continue into the morning hours, as the
cold start and NW winds gusting around 25-40 mph will lead to low
wind chills in the single digits above zero (single digits below
zero in the higher terrain). Gradual warming and a slow but steady
easing of NW winds by afternoon should allow for highs in the mid
20s to the freezing mark for locations north and west of I-95, and
mid 30s for the south coast, Cape and Islands. Clear skies and
easing west winds early Fri night but cloud cover begins to increase
late as warm advection pattern develops, with lows around the mid
teens to low 20s.

The Weekend:

Still looking like a mostly cloudy day for Sat, and other than a
spot temperature-dependent rain or snow shower, the day is largely a
cloudy but dry one. Highs in the 30s.

We`re also still monitoring possible storminess in the Sat night to
Sun timeframe, as closed low over the Canadian Prairies interacts
with fast-moving shortwave coming off the northern Rockies. Forecast
models continue to struggle with the interaction and phasing between
those two pieces of energy and that unfortunately continues; the
trend in recent ECMWF/EPS solutions as well as the GFS has been
toward an offshore solution with phasing occuring too late for much
of any impact to Southern New England - perhaps some snow
accumulation over Cape Cod on an inverted trough as the low pulls
further away. The GFS has consistently shown this type of outcome.
The Canadian on the other hand is holding onto an interior storm
track which could bring an snow or snow to wintry mix/rain solution.
That disparity in outcomes due to the varied interactions between
the two streams of energy across the models illustrates there`s
still quite a bit of uncertainty. It`s still too early to discount
some accumulating wintry weather at this point but the trend has
been too far offshore for much impact. Kept PoPs in the 20 to 40
percent range, highest further south, for snow or snow/rain. Those
will need further adjusting once there`s more of a coherent and
consistent signal across the guidance.

Monday and Tuesday:

High pressure begins to build into the mid-Atlantic region Mon and
Tue. Another reinforcing shot of very cold temperatures looks likely
for us on Mon with highs in the 20s with gusty northwest winds to go
along with it. WNW wind gusts ease into Mon night and Tue, as high
pressure settles over the coastal mid-Atlantic by Tue. While still
dry with highs in the 30-35 degree range for Tue, with high pressure
still to our south it could herald a more substantial warm-up as we
move into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00Z...High Confidence

VFR conditions gradually deteriorate to MVFR from west to east
as -RA/-SN overspreads southern New England. South/southwest
winds from 10 to 15 knots.

Tonight...High Confidence

-RA/-SN and MVFR ceilings from roughly 00-06Z. -SN mostly
 confined to the elevated areas, so most likely at BAF/ORH.
 Minimal accumulations. A cold front pushes showers/MVFR
 ceilings out of the area after 06Z and is followed by gusty
 west/northwest winds around 15 knots with gusts approaching 25
 knots by 12Z.

Tomorrow...High Confidence

VFR. Strong west/northwest winds from 15 to 25 knots with some
gusts up to 40 knots possible. Strongest winds expected near the
coast, Cape, Islands, and high terrain.

Tomorrow Night...High COnfidence

VFR. Gusty west/northwest winds continue with sustained 15 to
25 and gusts up to 40 knots. Strong wind should be on the
downswing by Friday morning, but may remain in the 20-30 knot
range through Friday afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.

Friday Night: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Saturday: Breezy.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Sunday: Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Tomorrow Night ...High confidence.

Gale warning today for strong southwest LLJ ahead of cold front.
SW wind gusts up to 35 knots. Cold front crosses the region
later tonight followed by excellent mixing in the CAA Thu. Gale
force wind gusts re-develop...but this time from a westerly
direction. Gales posted for all waters.

Outlook /Friday through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of snow.

Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain,
slight chance of snow.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow,
slight chance of rain.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     MAZ002-004-007>009-014>016-019>024-026.
RI...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     RIZ004>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-
     236.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/RM
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/RM
MARINE...Loconto/RM