251
FXUS61 KBOX 072008
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
308 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front should bring some showers tonight into Saturday,
followed by dry and mild weather Saturday afternoon. Another low
pressure and cold front brings another round of rain Sunday
into early Monday with breezy southerly winds. Trending cooler
Monday, and especially by Tuesday, with below normal
temperatures with gusty winds making it feel even chillier
Tuesday. Temperatures slightly moderate Wednesday before a
reinforcing trough arrives bringing back chillier temperatures
for late week. Some flurries/sprinkles possible near the
Berkshires and some ocean effect showers possible towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Overcast with frontal rain showers between 7 PM to 4 AM for
  areas north/west of I-95. Rainfall less than a quarter inch,
  before drying out late tonight.

* Showers, with a low risk for thunderstorms overnight for
  coastal RI and SE MA, Cape and Islands and nearby waters
  after midnight.

Low pressure moving across southeast Canada will swing its
associated fronts across southern New England tonight. This
should generate some rain showers across southern New England
tonight. There is a low risk for thunderstorms late tonight as a
SW low level jet moves past the Cape and Islands. This forcing
could be enough to maximize the 100-200 J/kg CAPE values. Not
expecting anything especially strong, but cannot dismiss the
idea.

Mainly S to SW winds should keep temperatures much higher than
what we saw this morning. Expecting low temperatures tonight to
be just below our normal high temperatures for early November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Off-and-on rain showers could linger into Sat morning for the
  Cape, but drying out by late morning/noontime.

* Mild conditions for November, but with more seasonable lows
  for Saturday night.

Forecast challenge for Saturday remains the timing of showers
ending over southeast New England. The steadiest rains will
have ended, but could see clouds and off-and-on showers
continuing into a good part of the morning before trudging
eastward/offshore and drying out.

Modest cold advection takes place Saturday evening with a light
W to NW wind, which eventually turns more onshore/NEly in
response to the next wave of low pressure moving through the OH
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* System brings a period of rain and breezy winds Sunday into Monday.

* Trending cooler early next week, with below normal temperatures.

* Gusty winds Tuesday. 30-35 mph, locally up to 40 mph.

* Isolated shower/sprinkle or flurry over the higher terrain and
  some ocean effect showers for Cape/Islands. Round of showers
  possible later Wednesday.

Details...

Sunday - Monday:

Unsettled to start the period as a low pressure system moves
across the region Sunday into Monday with a surface low tracking
over NY and a weak secondary low tracking through or just
offshore of southern New England. Sunday, a weak warm front
shifts northward into southern New England with higher moisture
advecting into the region within the southerly flow aloft. Weak
lift ahead of the incoming cold front will be enough to support
showers. There are still differences among model guidance on the
timing of the showers as models differ on the speed and exact
track of the surface features. Overall, showers should arrive
sometime in the late afternoon-evening timeframe lifting out
early Monday morning. They should be on the lighter side with
ensemble means ranging 0.25-0.50" for totals.

A deep upper level low and trough moves across the Great Lakes
toward the region Monday, eventually pushing in a cool airmass
into southern New England. For the day Monday, may see a few
remnant showers in the AM. Models indicate potential for another
offshore low passing well offshore, but may track close enough
west to bring showers for mainly the Cape later in the day. High
temperatures should be similar to Sunday, but will depend on
how far north the warm front makes it. Some colder air may seep
far enough south to keep it in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain of the interior while the warm front keeps temperatures
in the upper 50s for the Cape and south coast.

Tuesday-Friday:

Strong cold air advection into Tuesday as the deep upper trough
shifts eastward bringing the core of the coldest air into the
region. This will likely bring in the coldest air of the season
so far with 850mb temperatures anomalies showing well below
normal temperatures (-7 to -10C). This will support chilly
temperatures with upper 30s for the higher terrain and 40s
elsewhere. NW flow aloft with 850mb winds 40-50 kts. With CAA
and ample mixing, higher winds should be able transfer down to
the surface with gusts 30-35 mph possible, potentially up to 40
mph. This will make it feel even chillier, with it feeling like
upper 20s across the higher terrain and 30s elsewhere. Can`t
rule out a few lake effect showers to survive the trek over the
Berkshires which would bring sprinkles, perhaps a flurry for
the higher spots. Ocean effect showers will be possible with
some potentially brushing the Cape and Islands in the WNW flow.

Temperatures moderate slightly Wednesday as the core of the
coldest air shifts eastward with the upper trough. It will still
be on the cooler side with highs in the 40s for the higher
terrain and low 50s elsewhere. A weak shortwave trough moves
through later Wednesday, which will bring showers across the
region. Can`t rule out a lake effect shower earlier in the day
to again make it to the east slope of the Berkshires,
potentially as a flurry or very light shower. Colder airmass
works back in for the end of the week with below normal
temperatures returning to the forecast and chances for some
ocean-effect showers and a isolated remnant lake-effect shower
out west.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Rest of Today: High confidence.

VFR, increasing southerly winds gusting up to 20 knots.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

VFR CIGS gradually decrease to MVFR as a frontal system
approaches. A quick round of light to moderate rain is
anticipated to move from west to east from 03-06z tonight,
ending between 08-11z tomorrow morning. CIGS behind the front
will drop to low end MVFR to IFR. Winds overnight stay southerly
gusting up to 20 knots, but a low level jet aloft will bring
wind shear concerns as 2-5kft winds increase to 45-55 knots.

Saturday: Moderate confidence.

CIGS gradually improve to VFR by mid morning, but could hang
around the 030 to 040 level through the afternoon. There could
be some post frontal showers moving west to east mid morning.
Winds turn westerly and remain breezy around 10-15 knots.

Saturday Night: High confidence.

VFR. Easing WNW winds, then shift to light NE by 12z Sun.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR this afternoon and evening. Increasing winds aloft will lead
to wind shear concerns with 40-50 knot winds at 2kft. Rain moves
in around midnight along with CIGS gradually falling to MVFR
levels with IFR CIGS possible. Better chance for IFR cigs behind
the front, but confidence is moderate at this time.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

VFR this afternoon. Rain moves in around 03z tonight. CIGS
gradually drop to MVFR with the rain. There could be some period
of IFR CIGS behind the rain, but confidence was not high enough
to include in TAF at this time

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Monday Night: Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Veterans Day: Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.

Tuesday Night: Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday: Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Low pressure well north of the waters will push a cold front
across the waters late tonight into Saturday. SW winds prevail
tonight, and are expected to become gusty ahead of this front.
Could see a few gusts up to gale force, but still thinking a
Gale Warning would be overkill. Thus, Small Craft Advisories
extended into Saturday night for some waters. Winds become W
during Saturday afternoon, then NW and diminish Saturday night.

Rain develops tonight on most waters, with a possibility of
thunder/lightning over the waters near/south of the Islands
after midnight. Rain should come to an end by Saturday
afternoon, then persist into Saturday night.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Rain likely.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain, isolated
thunderstorms.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Veterans Day: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 15 ft. Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 16 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up
to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Breezy S/SE flow in combination with lingering higher astronomical
tides will bring a risk for some minor coastal flooding over the
coming days. This will depend on the track of a surface low, as
it will influence wind direction/speed fields. These details
remain lower confidence at this time. Guidance keeps most
locations below minor flood stage. However, locations like
Nantucket Harbor will need to be monitored as reasonable worst-
case solutions hover near minor flooding.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ230-236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>234-
     250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Mensch/KP
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...Mensch/KP
MARINE...Belk/Mensch
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Belk/Mensch