358
FXUS61 KBOX 061943
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
243 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers exit this afternoon as do the clouds. An arctic front moves
through overnight Sunday into Monday morning with a some brief
scattered snow showers possible. Well below normal temperatures
Monday before slowly moderating Tuesday/Wednesday. More
unsettled overall next week with a few disturbances moving
through bringing periodic chances for rain/snow showers Tuesday
night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

Key Messages...

* Showers and clouds clearing through the afternoon/evening.

* Warmer tonight with lows in the 20s.

Skies will continue to clear through the afternoon and evening as
the last of the showers shifts offshore. Moisture exits with a drier
airmass shifting overhead coinciding with the arrival of surface
high pressure and a weak front. While the mid/upper levels dry out,
lingering low level moisture around 950mb likely leads to some low
level stratus over the interior for part of the overnight hours.
Lows drop into the upper teens (high elevations) and 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Mix of clouds and sun Sunday.

* A weak disturbance brings intermittent light showers to northern
  MA overnight.

Sunday features surface high pressure to start under zonal mid level
flow so expecting dry, quiet weather to end the weekend. The first
half of the day will feature the most sun, with clouds steadily
filling in in the afternoon ahead of a weak mid level shortwave that
crosses northern New England overnight. This is accompanied by a
stronger but moisture starved cold front at the surface. Thus, not
much has changed from the previous forecast, expecting a smattering
of light snow showers to be possible mainly north of the MA pike
amounting to a coating (more likely) to a half inch or so (less
likely). Thanks to that front, lows will be colder than Saturday
night, in the teens and low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Key Messages:

* More arctic air arrives early next week.

* Few snow showers possible early Monday. Very light accumulations,
  if any (< 1.0").

* Periodic chances for precipitation Tuesday night into next
  weekend. Low confidence in the details for timing and amounts.

Low pressure departs Monday, only to be followed by an arctic
airmass for Monday night into Tuesday. Another low pressure should
move from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada Wednesday into
Thursday. Then southern New England should be stuck between a couple
of features Friday into Saturday, a low pressure well offshore to
our east and a large high pressure over the northern Plains.

Looking for well below normal temperatures Monday and Monday night as
arctic air passes overhead. Temperatures then expected to trend
warmer Tuesday, before being near normal for Wednesday. Temperatures
then trend below normal late next week, with another round of arctic
air possible.

Mainly dry Monday as a low pressure departs, which should then
continue into Tuesday afternoon. After then, the timing and track
details get complicated. The consensus track is for a low pressure
to remain to our west and north during the middle of next week, but
it could get close enough to our region to bring some light
precipitation to our region. First with the warm front and then with
the cold front of this system. It`s still early enough in the season
where there would be a rain/snow line somewhere, with water
temperatures still in the 40s. Time of day will also matter greatly
in determining precipitation type. Generally favoring snow at night
and across the higher terrain, with rain more likely towards the
coastal plains of MA and RI.

Late next week could feature some cold advection showers, but there
are no strong lifting mechanisms anticipated at this time. There are
also questions about the amount of moisture which could be
available. While there is a prolonged period where these showers are
possible, there should be many dry hours late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update:

This afternoon...Moderate confidence.

Low end VFR to MVFR stratus. Widely scattered light showers both
SN and RA ending by mid afternoon. Accumulating or measurable
precip isn`t expected with either type. MVFR stratus improves
to VFR levels between 19-22z for BOS, and 22-01z for
Cape/Islands. Light southerly winds shifting SW/SSW this
morning, then shifting to light WSW/W accompanying the
improvement to VFR.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. W to NW winds around 5 kt. Low chance for patchy fog in
the valleys.

Sunday...High Confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.

Sunday night...High Confidence.

VFR. Winds light and variable early will increase through the
night becoming W then NW. Slight chance of -SN for northern
terminals, mainly ORH though probability is low.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, chance SN.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA, chance SN.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA, slight chance SN.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tranquil boating conditions expected through Sun, with winds
and seas below small craft advisory thresholds. Light S winds
continue into most of today, then become NW tonight around 10-15
kt. Seas 3 ft or less all waters thru Sun.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of rain.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Statement issued for this morning`s high tide
cycle along the eastern MA coast and Nantucket due to
astronomical king tides. This is expected to be marginal as
winds and swell aren`t as favorable. Some splashover and some
minor coastal flooding are possible in low lying areas/roads.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/BW
MARINE...Belk/BW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hrencecin