694
FXUS61 KBOX 031156
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
656 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today. After a dry start, rain
develops during the afternoon and continues into the first half
of the night. A cold front passes through overnight, ending the
rain early Tuesday morning and bringing a period of gusty
winds. Gusty winds continue Tuesday with dry conditions. Another
series of quick moving systems move through the region late
Wednesday into Thursday, and Friday night bringing a chance for
showers and breezy winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Dry to start, showers arrive late afternoon continuing tonight.

Details...

The first part of the day will start off dry with surface high
pressure positioned offshore. Highs will range in the mid to upper
50s, slightly warmer than Sunday thanks to weak WAA. As the day goes
on, things will trend more rainy/unsettled toward the evening. A
northern stream mid-level shortwave approaches the northeast while
shortwave energy from a southern shortwave move north towards
southern New England. SW flow aloft ahead of the approaching trough
will help advect in above normal moisture with precipitable water
values rising to 0.8"-1.0". As moisture increases from the south,
clouds will increase in coverage through the day. Broad ascent
ahead of the shortwave trough will support development of
showers, especially as the trough nears closer later in the
afternoon. For timing, there is general agreement that shower
chances increase after 2 PM with the highest chances for more
widespread rain this evening. Most rain/showers will be light;
however, high-resolution model guidance does hint the potential
for some embedded brief higher rainrates. So can`t rule out a
few brief downpours. Given the overall lighter rates and
progressive nature of the system, flash flooding isn`t a
concern. However, leaf-clogged storm drains this time of year
may factor in and keep the risk for isolated nuisance
flooding/ponding possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Showers/rain continues tonight, ending early Tue AM as cold
  front sweeps across the region. Gusty winds behind front.

* Gusty NW winds expected Tuesday.

Tonight:

A surface cold front pushes across the region by midnight,
clearing the rain and clouds early Tue morning. Rain totals
should range from at little as 0.10" to 0.50" with "higher" end
of that range more likely east of the I-95 corridor.

Strong cold air advection behind the cold front will help bring
down gusty NW winds. With 925mb winds between 30-50 kts, efficient
mixing will support gusts 25 and 35 mph are possible behind the
front. There is potential for gusts up to 40 mph for the high
terrain and coastal areas. HREF probabilities for gusts greater
than 40 mph are low-moderate for the Cape and Islands and the
higher elevations of the Berkshires and Worcester hills.
Nantucket has higher probabilities especially toward sunrise.
Probabilities for 45 mph+ are around 30%. Model soundings show
the top of the mixing layer around 45 kts, but mixing will
likely be limited to some extent since it is nighttime. With
that said, Nantucket may need a Wind Advisory, but holding off
for now as confidence is not high enough. Low temperatures
tonight should fall into the mid to upper 30s for the interior
and 40s closer to the coast.

Tuesday:

Drier air moves in with NW flow with cold air advecting into the
region post-front. 925mb winds 30-50 kts stay across the region
again with model soundings show efficient mixing in the boundary
toward the afternoon helping bring down gusty NW winds. Ensemble
guidance shows high probabilities for gusts in the 25-35 mph
range in the afternoon. There is potential for some gusts up to
40 mph, especially for the higher spots of the Berkshires/Worcester
Hills. Outer Cape and Nantucket have the better shot at more
consistent 40 mph gusts with higher respective probabilities.
Low chance for gusts to 45 mph in those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...

* Mostly dry weather, interrupted by quick shots of rain Wednesday
  night and Friday night into Saturday.

* Gusty post frontal winds on Thursday.

* Generally seasonable temperatures with highs in the 50s.

A progressive, fairly meridionally synoptic pattern continues through
the weekend with a series of high pressure/dry weather and troughs
of low pressure bringing quick shots of unsettled weather. The first
mid level trough and surface frontal system swings through late
Wednesday/Wednesday night followed by another period of dry weather
and gusty winds Thursday, much like we saw on Tuesday. High pressure
ridging then builds in Thursday night and winds calm down before yet
another trough comes through Friday night into Saturday bringing
unsettled weather and breezy winds to the forecast yet again. No big
arctic intrusions on the horizon, and high temperatures should
fluctuate between the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of the cold fronts
(Wed & Fri) and the upper 40s/low 50s behind the cold fronts (Thu
and Sun).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Monday... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

VFR. SW to SSW winds 8-12 kts with a few gusts up to 20 kts.
Showers mainly after 20z, but can`t rule out a shower before
that. Steadiest likely along the I-95 corridor in the evening
hours. Ceilings and visibilities drop to MVFR within any areas
of rain, mainly after 23z.

Monday Night... High confidence in trends, moderate in timing.

Areas of rain and embedded heavier downpours possible. Mainly
MVFR first half of the night. Rain exits by 06z. Cold front
moves through 01-06z from west to east with gusty WNW winds
behind it. Gusts 20-30 kts. Quick improvements to VFR behind
front.

Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR. Gusty. WNW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts, strongest
over higher terrain and coastal areas.

KBOS Terminal... Moderate confidence.

MVFR cigs around this morning. Low confidence in how low this
sticks around, but should scatter out 12-14z. Chance for a few
showers after 21z with -RA more likely after 00z.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with areas of gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* Quiet weather Sunday, rain, gusty winds, and rough seas late
  tonight into Tuesday.

Through Tuesday Night... High confidence. Moderate on peak wind
gusts.

Increasing southwest winds this afternoon ahead our next
system. System will bring rain late afternoon into first part of
night. Gusty NW winds behind a cold front that moves through
overnight tonight with increasing likelihood of Gale Force
gusts for the outer waters.

Because of those conditions, Gale Watch will be converted to a
Gale Warning for the outer ocean waters. Some models signal
potential for gale force gusts for portions of the
coastal/near-shore waters, but confidence is not high enough,
so those will be kept SCAs for now.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough
seas.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to
13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ230>237-251.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BW/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/Mensch
MARINE...BW/Mensch