511
FXUS61 KBOX 141114
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
714 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The Coastal low moves well offshore this morning, with rain and
blustery winds coming to an end this afternoon. However, an An
unseasonably cool airmass brings dry weather with below normal
temperatures and a return of breezy northwest winds for mid to late
this week. Temperatures then rebound back to above normal levels for
this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
One more slug of rain showers moves onshore this morning before the
coastal low-pressure center finally gets pushed offshore by an
approaching shortwave and cold front. HREF indicates up to 1-2
inches of additional QPF is possible, mainly from Cape Cod to
Boston. Blustery NE winds continue this morning, keeping the low
clouds and drizzle around until the winds turn more northerly in the
afternoon. We could even see some sunshine across the interior this
afternoon, with subtle height rises and much drier mid-level air
moving in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Tonight:

Weak high pressure builds over northern New England, allowing the
pressure gradient to relax and winds to become light to calm.  With
clearing skies overnight, low temperatures will be cooler than the
last few nights, bottoming out in the low to mid-40s.  Given the
residual surface moisture from the rain the past couple of days,
anticipating areas of radiation fog to develop late overnight,
especially if surface wind decouples from the boundary layer.

Tomorrow:

An upper-level shortwave and dry cold front drops south from
northern New England on Wednesday, bringing a quick return to cool
and blustery conditions.  Winds during the day will gust 20-30mph
inland and 25-35mph near the coasts as winds aloft increase through
the afternoon.  Skies remain clear inland with strato cumulus
forming across the waters, likely blanking the Cape and Islands in
mid-level clouds.  Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will
struggle to top the low 60s with cold air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement for upper troughing
across the region Thursday and Friday. The previous coastal low
slowly pulls offshore. This will keep an enhanced NW-SE
pressure gradient across southern New England supporting
"blustery" conditions through Friday. A cooler airmass will be
in place through late week, especially for Thursday. Residual
moisture Thursday may support a few showers across the
Cape/Islands. More forecast details below...

Thursday through Friday:

Breezy, cool, and mainly dry (for most). However, the combination of
a cooler airmass, residual moisture, and NW winds will bring cloudy
conditions to the Cape/Islands along with some ocean-effect showers
possible Thurs. A cooler, below normal airmass sinks across the
region within the upper trough. Later Thursday,
deterministic/ensemble guidance indicates another push of cooler
into the region. This will bring in a below normal airmass with
850mb temperatures -3 to -1C. This will likely yield high
temperatures in the 50s for Thursday with even upper 40s
possible across the high terrain locations of the interior. This
is about 5-10 degrees below normal. With the added element of
wind, it may feel like 40s at times. Temperatures will slowly
moderate Friday as an upper ridge approaches from the west
bringing gradual height rises.

An enhanced NW-SE pressure gradient stay intact across the region
bringing breezy NW winds. Cool advection should support a well-
mixed boundary layer bringing down gusty NW winds on Thursday.
Ensembles show gusts 25-35 mph with the higher gusts more likely
for the Cape/Islands. Can`t rule out a gust up to 40 mph across
the Berkshires. The waters will likely be around gale force
Thursday. Winds trend lighter for Friday as the gradient
relaxes, but may stay elevated over the waters.

Next Weekend:

Ensemble guidance shows a good consensus for a pattern change
developing Saturday into Sunday as a strong 500mb ridge pushes
across the northeast. This will advect in higher heights, warmer
temperatures aloft and keep conditions dry. There is potential for
850mb temperatures to rise to +12-14C by Sunday. Quite a difference
from Thursday! Overall this will favor a warming trend for the
weekend with temperatures closer to normal Saturday and potentially
above normal Sunday with ensemble members showing a range of upper
60s to low 70s at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z TAF Update:

Today: Moderate confidence

One last slug of precipitation is movIng onshore this morning
before the low finally pushes off shore. CIGS start IFR in the
east, MVFR in the west, improving to SCT/BKN MVFR/VFR conditions
in the afternoon for all terminals excluding the Cape and
Islands. Gusty NE winds continue through the morning before
turning light northerly in the afternoon.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions, but sct MVFR CIGS possible esspically
near the coasts. With the rain from the last couple days and
clear overnight skies, may see areas of radiation/ground fog
develop and low lying areas. Light to calm winds

Tomorrow: High Confidence

VFR with SCT MVFR CIGS across the Cape and Islands. Gusty N
winds up to 25 knots inland, and 30 knots near the waters.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF trends.

Off and on rain showers continue through about 15z with IFR
CIGS. CIGS become more MVFR mid morning with VFR possible by
late afternoon. Strong NE winds continue through this morning
before turning northerly in the afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF trends.

MVFR CIGS continue into this morning with VFR conditions this
afternoon.


Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 35 kt. Slight
chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

High-end small craft conditions continue today as strong NE winds
gusting 30-35 knots continue into the afternoon before weakening
tonight.  Moderate to heavy rain showers continue this morning
before weakening this afternoon as the coastal low moves offshore.
Waves heights will remain elevated with 5-10 feet seas today,
becoming 4-7 feet on Wednesday.  Seas begin to rise again overnight
Wednesday as a cold front brings strong NNW winds gusting 25-35
knots.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.
Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Gale Watch may
be needed

Thursday: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to
9 ft. Chance of rain showers. Gale Watch may be needed.

Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers. Gale Watch may be needed

Friday: High risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-
     236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Mensch/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Mensch/KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...KP