635
FXUS61 KBOX 110802
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
302 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, blustery and much colder today, although a few
passing flurries or snow showers are possible, especially in
the Berkshires. Blustery weather and below normal temperatures
continue through the rest of the week into Saturday with
nothing more than a few brief passing rain/snow showers. A
frontal system may bring mostly rain next Sunday with drier
conditions Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:

* Blustery and unseasonably cold today
* A few passing flurries possible, with snow showers and minor
  accumulations possible in the Berkshires

Widespread strato-cu across SNE early this morning in the wake of
strong low pres moving into the Maritimes. Cloud cover much more
expansive than guidance would suggest, but we should see clouds
scatter out by daybreak for some temporary sunshine to start the
day. Any sun will be short lived as a deep and anomalous upper
trough moves into New Eng today. Cold pool aloft with 500 mb temps
around -35C combined with increasing moisture in the column will
result in numerous strato-cu redeveloping and can`t rule out a few
flurries in the afternoon anywhere in SNE. Lake effect moisture
lifted along the west slopes of the Berkshires will result in more
organized snow showers here which may spill over into the east
slopes of the Berkshires where a coating to an inch of accumulation
is possible in a few spots.

Unseasonably cold day in SNE as 850 mb temps drop to near -10C with
abundant cloud cover developing. Highs will mostly range from 35 to
40 degrees, colder higher terrain, with lower 40s along the
immediate south coast and Cape/Islands. Gusty winds will make it
feel even colder. Deep and well mixed boundary layer support wind
gusts to 30-40 mph at times, with the wind peaking mid-late
afternoon into early evening. A few wind gusts around 45 mph
possible over higher elevations and the Islands. Wind chills this
afternoon will be in the 20s and lower 30s, so definitely a winter
feel today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Strongest wind gusts diminish tonight, but remaining breezy
  especially near the coast

* Mostly cloudy and a bit milder Wed. A few showers possible over
  Cape/Islands

Tonight...

The strongest wind gusts expected to linger into the early evening,
then winds will gradually diminish. Still gusty at times, especially
near the coast as decent pressure gradient remains. Upper trough and
cold pool will move to the east this evening with rising heights
tonight and a de-amplifying flow. Partial clearing expected this
evening away from the Berkshires, but clouds will return late
tonight from west to east ahead of next shortwave. Radiational
cooling will be limited due to wind and increasing cloud cover
overnight, with lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Wednesday...

Next shortwave moves across the region with cooling temps aloft and
area of moisture moving through. Expect lots of clouds with global
and hi-res guidance bringing a few showers to the Cape/Islands
during the morning. A few rain or snow showers also possible in the
higher elevations, otherwise mainly dry elsewhere. Temps moderate
ahead of the shortwave as winds turn SW, with highs in the 40s,
expect upper 30s higher terrain. It will be breezy over the
Cape/Islands with gusts to 25-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Blustery with below normal temps Thu through Sat. A few passing
  rain or snow showers at times otherwise mainly dry

* Next chance of organized precip will be next Sunday as a frontal
  system approaches from the west. Mainly rain is expected, then
  drying out on Monday

Thursday through Saturday...

A series of shortwaves moving through the flow will reinforce the
upper trough across New Eng which eventually amplifies east of New
Eng on Saturday. Overall pattern favors mainly dry conditions as
moisture is limited, but can`t rule out a few passing rain or snow
showers at times as shortwaves move through. Temps will remain below
normal with mildest day on Thu (45-50F) then cooling Fri and Sat.
Multiple shortwave passages will keep winds gusty at times.

Sunday and Monday...

Fairly progressive pattern with next upper trough and shortwave
approaching from the Gt Lakes on Sunday. Parent low approaches from
the west with warming temps likely likely bringing mainly rain to
SNE on Sunday. Secondary low development possible but it may occur
too far north and too late to lock in any cold air. Still time for
things to change but GEFS and EPS ensembles show best chance for any
snow/ice across northern New Eng. This appears to be a quick moving
system and is forecast to be exiting the region Sun night with drier
and blustery conditions returning Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z...

MVFR cigs expected to scatter out to VFR 08-10z. W gusts to
20-25 kt.

Today...High confidence.

BKN cigs around 5k ft developing with a few afternoon flurries
possible. Brief vsby reduction possible at KBAF. W gusts to 25
kt this morning increasing to 30-35 kt during the afternoon. Up
to 40 kt at ACK and ORH.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Clouds scatter out in the evening. W gusts 25-35 kt in the
evening, up to 40 kt at ACK, then gradually decreasing
overnight.

Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR cigs. A few showers possible over the Cape/Islands. SW wind
10-20 kt, gusts 25-30 kt Cape/Islands.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence.

MVFR cigs will scatter out by 08z, otherwise BKN cigs around 5k
ft developing by midday. An afternoon flurry possible. W gusts
to 25 kt this morning, with 35 kt gusts possible this afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

MVFR cigs will improve to VFR 08-10z, with VFR cigs through the
day. An afternoon flurry possible. W gusts to 25-30 kt
developing.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Sunday: Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages:

* Gale Force westerly wind gusts of 35 to 40+ kts this
  afternoon and evening

Increasing west winds today with peak of the wind later this
afternoon and evening with gusts to 35-40 kts. Strongest gusts
expected over south coastal waters where gusts may exceed 40 kts.
Winds slowly diminish below gale overnight but remain gusty from
the SW on Wed with gusts 25-30 kt.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening
     for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC