Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
421 FXUS64 KBRO 222335 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 535 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 523 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - Above normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday. A cold front Wednesday looks to bring more seasonable temperatures. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon into Sunday morning. Rain chances look to subside Sunday afternoon, before returning Tuesday. - Adverse marine conditions are possible Sunday into Monday due to moderate to breezy winds. - An elevated risk of rip currents will prevail through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A frontal boundary stalled just to the north of the CWA is forecast to begin moving back to the north Sunday morning as return flow strengthens along the Lower Texas Coast. Scattered showers will likely continue into Sunday morning with rain chances gradually decreasing as the frontal boundary moves further north. Warm temperatures are forecast to continue into early next week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Another cold front is expected to approach Deep South Texas Monday, again, stalling just northwest of the CWA. At the same time, another surface low looks to develop over Southern Canada. The cold front associated with this system is forecast to rapidly drop south across the Great Plains and move through Deep South Texas Wednesday. This front will likely bring cooler temperatures to the area. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to largely remain in the 70s, with some areas along the Rio Grande possibly reaching the low 80s. Wednesday night looks to be the coolest night in the forecast period, with low temperatures falling into the upper 40s across northern portions of the CWA and low to mid 50s elsewhere. Rain chances will begin to increase to 40-50% again Tuesday evening through Wednesday ahead of and along the cold front. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 At this time, all TAF sites are reporting VFR conditions with few to scattered clouds at KBRO while overcast skies from nearby convection are being reported at KHRL and KMFE. KBRO and KHRL should remain clear of thunderstorms and heavy downpours over the next few hours, but VCTS at KMFE may lead to additional periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms through sunset. Convection is expected to gradually diminish across the region later this evening. Overnight, elevated moisture is likely to drop ceilings anywhere from MVFR, possibly IFR, at KBRO to likely IFR or near LIFR at KHRL and KMFE. Tomorrow morning, overcast skies continue as ceilings slowly rise into the afternoon with VFR or MVFR expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Adverse marine conditions are forecast to develop Sunday as southeasterly winds along the Lower Texas Coast increase to 20-25 knots, building seas to 5-6 feet. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday evening through Monday. Generally favorable conditions are expected to briefly return Tuesday, however a cold front moving through the area Wednesday may bring another round of adverse conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 72 86 73 87 / 20 20 0 0 HARLINGEN 69 88 69 90 / 20 20 0 0 MCALLEN 72 90 73 92 / 30 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 90 70 91 / 40 20 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 76 83 / 30 20 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 87 / 30 20 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...65-Irish