762
FXUS64 KBRO 161129 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
629 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

* Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern through next Thursday
  with warmer than normal temperatures.

* There is a low (20%) chance for rain on Wednesday and Thursday
  across Deep South Texas; 20-30% chances Tuesday night through
  Thursday night over the Gulf Waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Benign, mainly rain-free weather conditions are expected to
prevail through the forecast period or through Thursday of next
week. A couple of cool fronts and ~1020 hpa highs will approach
Deep South Texas this weekend through the middle parts of next
week.

The first cool front has a chance to push through the forecast
area on Sunday. A notable airmass change is not expected, though
there could be some drier air filtering into the area at times.
The second cool front will push through the Pac NW and Rockies
before advancing through much of the state of Texas on Tuesday,
potentially stalling nearby South/Deep South Texas on Tuesday
night-Wednesday.

Forecast models are indicating rain chances picking up over Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday in
response to that nearby frontal boundary. Currently, we have low
(20%) chances for rain showers Wednesday and Thursday across Deep
South Texas (inland) with 20-30% chances over the Gulf Waters
(Tuesday night through Thursday night).

An anomalously strong 588-591 dam heat ridge is expected to drive
our weather pattern through next Thursday. This will help to keep
temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period with
daytime highs mainly in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 60s
across the Northern Ranchlands and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Calm
winds this morning are expected to pickup out of the southeast
late this morning, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots. Few
to scattered cumulus is expected to develop this afternoon. Light
and variable winds and mostly clear skies are expected to return
this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail
with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas through
next Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  71  90  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               90  67  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 94  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      84  77  86  78 /   0   0  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  71  89  72 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...60-BE