


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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762 FXUS64 KBRO 161129 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 * Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern through next Thursday with warmer than normal temperatures. * There is a low (20%) chance for rain on Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas; 20-30% chances Tuesday night through Thursday night over the Gulf Waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Benign, mainly rain-free weather conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period or through Thursday of next week. A couple of cool fronts and ~1020 hpa highs will approach Deep South Texas this weekend through the middle parts of next week. The first cool front has a chance to push through the forecast area on Sunday. A notable airmass change is not expected, though there could be some drier air filtering into the area at times. The second cool front will push through the Pac NW and Rockies before advancing through much of the state of Texas on Tuesday, potentially stalling nearby South/Deep South Texas on Tuesday night-Wednesday. Forecast models are indicating rain chances picking up over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday in response to that nearby frontal boundary. Currently, we have low (20%) chances for rain showers Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas (inland) with 20-30% chances over the Gulf Waters (Tuesday night through Thursday night). An anomalously strong 588-591 dam heat ridge is expected to drive our weather pattern through next Thursday. This will help to keep temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period with daytime highs mainly in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Calm winds this morning are expected to pickup out of the southeast late this morning, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots. Few to scattered cumulus is expected to develop this afternoon. Light and variable winds and mostly clear skies are expected to return this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas through next Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 77 86 78 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...60-BE