Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
095 FXUS64 KBRO 142320 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 520 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 517 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Above-normal temperatures are expected through the middle of next week with breezy south-southeasterly winds. A weak cold front is possible late next week. - Fire danger will likely increase next week as winds pick up and fuels continue to dry with rain-free conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 High pressure is expected to continue over Deep South Texas this weekend into next week as an upper level trough moves east of the CONUS. This will result in precipitation-free and unseasonably warm weather for our region through at least the middle of next week, until another upper-level shortwave ejects over the Central/Southern plains, bringing a possible weak cold front and a small chance of precipitation (30% and less) east of US 77/I-69E on Thursday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Thursday, and then drop back down into the mid-80s by the weekend after the frontal passage. Lows will start out this weekend in the low-to-mid 60s, steadily increasing to the upper 60s/lower 70s by the middle of next week as a more humid airmass is advected into the area by continual south-southeasterly winds. Wind speeds will gradually increase into the middle of next week as a pressure gradient tightens as the approaching upper-level shortwave moves closer to the region. As the winds pick up and fuels continue to dry out, fire danger is expected to increase. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Mainly clear skies are expected tonight along with a light to gentle southeasterly breeze, variable at times, with VFR conditions continuing into the day tomorrow as winds pick up to around 10-15 knots, gusting to around 20 knots, out of the southeast by tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 SCEC conditions are possible each afternoon through the middle of next week, particularly along portions of the Laguna Madre Bay and the Northern Gulf Waters. By Wednesday Night, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten ahead of an approaching upper level trough, and Small Craft Conditions may be possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 68 86 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 66 89 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 81 73 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55-MM LONG TERM....55-MM AVIATION...65-Irish