008
FXUS64 KBRO 041119 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
619 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

 - Life-threatening rip currents are expected at local beaches
   this weekend.

 - Record high temperatures are forecast for MFE on Monday.

 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
   each day, increasing in coverage mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Weak mid-level low pressure gradually meanders southwestward
across the Gulf this weekend into late next week as the next 500mb
ridge builds across Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop offshore towards the coast each night and
inland with the sea breeze each afternoon through Monday. Higher
rain chances arrive with better moisture and the approach of lower
pressure into the southwestern Gulf Tuesday through Friday, still
mainly offshore to the coast into the morning and inland with the
sea breeze each afternoon, reaching the brush country each
evening.

Seasonal temperatures are generally expected through the period,
warming a couple of degrees above normal Sunday into Tuesday, even
potentially making a run at record highs on Monday. With the
increased humidity, Heat Risk varies from minor (level 1 of 4) to
moderate (level 2 of 4), mainly across the RGV.

Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the lower Texas
coast this weekend, with an increasing swell and period along the
western Gulf. Long period swell continues into early next week
leading into the next full moon and higher astronomical tides,
which could narrow beaches near high tide cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

VFR TAF conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Light northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail over the
region. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible,
however confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF
package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A long period swell has reached the offshore waters and expected
to create choppy conditions into early next week across coastal
and offshore waters with generally low to moderate seas. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms persists through the forecast
period, especially offshore, as weak mid-level low pressure slowly
works into the southwestern Gulf. Waterspouts may be possible near
any showers or thunderstorms this weekend and next week,
especially offshore.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Record high temperatures may be approached Monday afternoon where
sunshine and peak heating can run unabated to any isolated sea
breeze convection, especially further into the valley at MFE. The
current record high temperature for MFE on October 6 is 99 degrees
from 2016, which is also the current forecast. There is a
thinning 2 degree spread for BRO on Monday, with forecast highs of
94 and a 125 year record of 96 looming from 1900. HRL will also
be in the mix Monday with a recent record of 96 from 2016 and a
current forecast of 94 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  73  92  75 /  20  10  10   0
HARLINGEN               91  71  93  71 /  20  10  10   0
MCALLEN                 94  73  97  75 /  10   0  10   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         95  70  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  79  86  80 /  20  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  73  89  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...64-Katz