Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
465 FXUS64 KBRO 061825 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1225 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Warm temperatures continue through Sunday before a (rain-free) cold front cools us down for the workweek. - Areas of fog are possible Sunday morning across Deep South Texas, creating potentially unsafe driving conditions. Visibility could reach a mile or less. - Adverse marine conditions are likely Sunday evening into Monday behind the passage of the cold front on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Above average temperatures today and tomorrow with highs in the 70s today, climbing into the 80s Sunday before a dry cold front pushes through Sunday afternoon. Low temperatures Monday morning are expected to be around 5-10 degF cooler than Sunday morning lows in the wake of the cold front (upper 40s to low 50s vs. upper 50s to low 60s). The workweek starts out with highs in the upper 60s (Ranchlands) to low 70s (RGV/plains), and will slowly climb into the 80s by midweek under a benign pattern with ridging building over the desert SW. Another front late week may usher back in cooler temperatures we`ve so been craving. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. Tonight/Sunday morning, light winds and a narrow dewpoint depression across Deep South Texas leaves a chance of (patchy dense) fog development (SREF indicating 30-60% chance of visibility less than one mile, with greatest chances along US-77 and in northern Ranchlands). Visibilities as low as 1/4 mi are possible. There is uncertainty with strength of winds above the boundary layer and depth of low level moisture. Current short range ensemble guidance depicts a wide spread between 25th and 75th percentiles of visibility ranges - from less than a mile to greater than 10mi. Will hold off on issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Visible satellite this morning shows a deck of low clouds slowly moving offshore. By afternoon, ceilings are expected to lift to MVFR/IFR with light northerly winds shifting easterly. MVFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon, with a brief window around sunset for VFR before cloud cover returns. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected overnight and into Sunday morning. Short range models indicate a chance (SREF: 40% HRL, 20% BRO and MFE) of fog reducing visibility to less than a mile, aided by light and variable winds and narrowing dewpoint depressions. In the absence of fog, expect IFR ceilings. Fog uncertainty arises with wind speeds above the boundary layer, and how much moisture is in the low levels. At all sites, IMC may begin as early as 05Z and last through 12Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1141 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Generally favorable conditions with moderate winds of varying directions and slight seas continues through Sunday. A passing cold front on Sunday will bring elevated winds and seas in its wake. Sunday night, expect strong northerly winds and rough seas building. Small Craft Advisory Conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday. Favorable conditions return Tuesday and persist through the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 65 85 57 / 40 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 77 61 85 51 / 40 10 10 0 MCALLEN 79 64 87 53 / 40 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 61 86 49 / 20 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 68 77 64 / 40 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 63 83 57 / 40 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....69-HK AVIATION...69-HK