238
FXUS64 KBRO 100507
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1107 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- A Gale Warning is in effect through 6 AM Monday for the Gulf
  waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna
  Madre through Monday afternoon.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect
  through at least Monday evening along the Lower Texas beaches.
  Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially near high
  tide.

- Low temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 40s to low 50s
  Sunday night and upper 30s to upper 40s Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cooler temperatures are expected for the next couple days in the
wake of Sunday`s cold front. Wind speeds through Sunday evening
have trended lower than guidance, with wind gusts diminishing
across most inland areas. Model guidance continues to show wind
gusts from 25-30 mph overnight into midday Monday. This guidance
doesn`t align with recent observations across the region, which
show generally light winds around 10 mph for the past couple
hours. With the cooler temperatures and lack of solar heating, the
boundary layer may remain decoupled overnight, which would not
support stronger gusts mixing to the surface. Due to this
uncertainty, the the wind gust forecast has been capped at 25 mph
across inland portions of the CWA.

Low temperatures are expected to fall to the mid 40s to low 50s
by sunrise Monday morning, with high temperatures in the mid 60s
to low 70s Monday. Monday night will likely be the coldest night
this week, with low temperatures falling to the upper 30s to mid
40s across the northern counties and mid to upper 40s across the
Rio Grande Valley.

Southeasterly winds are expected to return Tuesday, allowing for
a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the work week.
Another cold front may approach the region next weekend, though it
is too far out to begin focusing on the specific impacts it may
bring.

Dangerous beach conditions are expected to continue Monday. Winds
along the coast and over the Gulf waters are forecast to remain
elevated into Monday afternoon, continuing to support high surf
and increased rip current activity and intensity. The High Surf
Advisory and the High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect
through Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions and northerly winds are expected to continue
through the TAF period. There is some uncertainty in the wind gust
forecast through the next few hours, as model guidance and
observations have not been well aligned. Some infrequent gusts to
20-25 knots will likely be possible overnight into the mid-
afternoon Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue overnight,
with Gale Force wind gusts and 10-12 ft seas on the coastal Gulf
waters. The Gale Warning remains in effect until 6 AM Monday.
Winds and seas will likely begin to subside by sunrise, and
gradually improve through the day Monday. A Small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed into the early afternoon Monday.

On the Laguna Madre, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in
effect until noon Monday, and may need to be extended for a few
hours as models show 20-25 knot winds continuing into the
afternoon. However recent observations along the Laguna Madre have
been below guidance, and on the low end of Small Craft Advisory
criteria. If winds continue to improve, an extension may not be
required, and it is possible the Advisory could be canceled early.

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to return by
Monday night, though this will likely be short lived as increased
wind speeds over the Gulf waters Tuesday afternoon may require
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or another Small
Craft Advisory. Adverse conditions may return again near the end
of the forecast, as another Cold front may approach the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

There is some uncertainty in the fire weather forecast for Monday
afternoon, largely relating to the 20 foot wind speeds across the
area. Low relative humidity values are expected Monday afternoon,
with minimum values ranging from 10-15% across all but the
coastal counties and 15-25% across inland portions of Cameron,
Willacy, and Kenedy counties.

20 foot wind speeds, however, are forecast to remain just below 15
mph through the morning and decrease through the afternoon. To
further complicate the forecast, recent observations have remained
below most of the model guidance, and if that trend continues,
these lower wind speeds would further limit the fire weather
concerns Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             84  56  68  49 /  20   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               81  50  68  44 /  30   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 82  52  70  47 /  10   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  48  70  40 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  59  67  56 /  30   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  57  67  49 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60-BE