Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
665 FXUS64 KBRO 110007 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 607 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 521 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 -Rain free and pleasant conditions continue through Thursday, with a warming trend into the weekend -Low to medium (25 to 40 percent) rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday along a stalling frontal boundary && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A persistent trough of low pressure with a series of winter systems works through the Great Lakes and New England into early next week. Closer to home, a weak shortwave trough gradually moves east across Texas this weekend, followed by a brief 500mb ridge of high pressure, and then a stronger shortwave settles into the Southern Plains by Tuesday. At the surface, weak low pressure and a meandering frontal boundary will bring drier air from west to east through the afternoon and maybe some fog overnight, otherwise, relatively comfortable conditions. The front lifts north as a warm front on Friday, then drops back down on Sunday before stalling or washing out. Temperatures are generally expected to be above normal, with near normal highs Thursday and Monday, and potentially record highs at BRO on Friday. A stronger front may be on the horizon just beyond the forecast period, although, current probabilities are at 60-70 percent for above normal temperatures Dec 17 through Dec 23. The chance of rain remains low (less than 20 percent) and mainly along the coast Friday into Sunday morning, then increases to a low to medium (25 to 40 percent) chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon before diminishing again on Monday. The trend has continued to run drier with each forecast package this week, nudging confidence lower in any widespread beneficial rain. The 8-14 day CPC outlook is leaning toward above normal precipitation through Dec 23, at around 33-50 percent. Patchy fog may be possible in the early morning hours into next week, with limited winds and multiple boundaries. Favorable beach conditions are expected into the weekend, with an increase in life-threatening rip currents Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 VFR conditions are forecast to continue this afternoon, with MVFR conditions likely developing overnight. Winds are forecast to become light and variable tonight before increasing out of the north late Thursday morning. MVFR ceilings will likely develop overnight, with a low potential for IFR ceilings shortly before sunrise. Some visibility reductions may also be possible, though wind speeds will likely favor a low stratus deck. VFR conditions will likely return shortly after sunrise Thursday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 A couple of weak frontal boundaries and generally lighter onshore winds will maintain favorable marine conditions into the weekend. A cold front arrives or stalls across the waters on Sunday, increasing the chance of rain into next week, and builds seas briefly into Monday with Small Craft Caution level winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 59 78 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 54 76 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 55 76 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 53 76 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 73 67 77 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 76 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...60-BE