Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
163 FXUS64 KBRO 181139 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 539 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 538 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 * Very warm, breezy, rain-free weather conditions are expected to persist through early next week. * Record to near record-breaking temperatures will take place through this week. * South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph will take place nearly each day through early next week. * A nearby frontal boundary and a couple of mid-upper storm systems will result in low rain chances generally ranging between 15-30% across the region Thursday through early next week. * Moderate to breezy winds will result in at times adverse marine and coastal conditions through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Very warm temperatures and mainly rain-free weather conditions will persist through the forecast period or through next Tuesday. Located on its northwestern flank, a strengthening 591-588 dam heat ridge will drive record to near record-breaking temps through this week with anomalies on the order of 10-15F degrees above average (see CLIMATE SECTION). An enhanced pressure gradient courtesy of a nearby weak shortwave trough over the Sierra Madre and a sfc high pressure system to our east coupled with a couple of mid-upper low pressure systems that will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating eastward will activate low level jet (LLJ) winds and increase kinematics or wind energy over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande valley through early next week. South-southeast winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will almost be a daily occurrence through next Tuesday. These winds will result in at times slightly adverse marine conditions with moderate wave heights and rip current risk through early next week (see MARINE SECTION). Midweek through early next week, an approaching or nearby frontal boundary associated with a couple of mid-upper level troughs that will dive into the Desert Southwest before translating eastward into the southern Plains could trigger a daily or near daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. Jet dynamics and other forcings are more supportive further to the north across central and north Texas. That said, we continue to maintain a general low risk/probability (15- 30%) of showers and thunderstorms each day from Thursday to Monday night. On Thursday, the greatest probabilities will be located over the Northern Ranchlands. Afterwards, the best or highest chances for precipitation will be closer to the coast. Saturday presents a more widespread chance for showers and storms with probabilities ranging between 20-40%. Chances will be slightly higher during this time period over the Gulf Waters. Daytime high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s Tuesday through Friday across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande valley. Saturday through early next week, temperatures will be slightly cooler but still above normal levels as the mid-upper trough shifts eastward towards the region resulting in increased cloud coverage and rain chances. Daytime highs Saturday through Tuesday of next week will be in the 80s across Deep South Texas. Overnight lows through Sunday night will be in the 60s and 70s. Monday night through Tuesday night, overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate to breezy southerly winds through the forecast period. These winds will result in moderate rip current risk and seas with wave heights ranging between 3-6 feet. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will at time be met during the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 73 89 73 / 0 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 91 69 91 69 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 71 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 83 76 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 87 70 / 0 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$