Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
981 FXUS64 KBRO 171122 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 522 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue across Deep South Texas through mid-week. By Wednesday, winds will increase which could elevate fire danger. - There is a low (20 to 30 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Mid level ridging over Deep South Texas will slowly move eastward through mid week. This will result in rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures across region through at least late Wednesday. The unseasonably warm weather may lead to record or near record high temperatures across the area Monday through Thursday. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast, each day under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight are expected to fall in the mid to upper 60s, except for the 70s along the beaches and across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Lows will gradually increase into the upper 60s and into the 70s through Thursday night as low level moisture increases. Gusty southeast winds are expected Monday and Tuesday afternoon with slightly stronger winds Wednesday and Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient strengthens. A 500mb trough approaching from the west on Thursday will bring a low (20 to 30 percent) chance showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday as a weak cold front may push into the region on Friday. Some slightly drier and cooler air may arrive by late week into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Moderate to breezy winds will occur with partly cloudy, rain-free skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail along the lower Texas coast through Wednesday with exercise caution conditions possible each afternoon, especially on the Laguna Madre. The pressure gradient will begin to strengthen Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front. Exercise caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible through Thursday night. Conditions will gradually improve on Friday and into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 92 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 83 76 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 87 72 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$