132
FXUS64 KBRO 140337
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1037 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

 - Life-threatening rip currents are expected Tuesday and again
   this weekend along beaches of the lower Texas coast.

 - A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Tuesday for
   narrow beaches and minor coastal flooding.

 - There is a medium (30 to 40 percent) chance of showers and
   thunderstorms through Tuesday.

 - Temperatures gradually warm above normal by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A strong 500mb low swings inland along the West Coast and into
the Rockies by late this week, nudging the ridge across Texas out
into the northern Gulf. Weak low pressure and a passing shortwave
bring a brief medium (30-40 percent) chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday afternoon under the ridge. POPs
then drop to below 10 percent Wednesday through Saturday. A
surface low develops across the Southern Plains over the weekend
and drops into East Texas by Sunday, dragging a cold front south
toward Deep South Texas, with a low (less than 25 percent) chance
of showers or thunderstorms.

Expect seasonal temperatures gradually warming through mid-week,
warming a couple of degrees above normal Friday, and then adding a
couple more degrees on Saturday and Sunday, bringing a moderate
(level 2 of 4) Heat Risk back to Deep South Texas and near triple
digit heat across the brush country and upper valley.

Life-threatening rip currents will continue along the lower Texas
coast Tuesday and return again this weekend into early next week.
Astronomical tides continue to diminish into mid-week with narrow
beaches still likely Tuesday night, but probably falling short of
any Coastal Flood Statement, especially with a lack of surf to
push high tide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period
with easterly winds and isolated showers late Tuesday morning
into early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The pressure gradient continues to weaken with generally light to
moderate onshore flow turning southeasterly into next weekend. A
weak cold front may work south through the coastal waters on
Sunday with light to moderate northeasterly winds. Coastal showers
and isolated thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday morning
and again Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  75  88  71 /   0  30  30   0
HARLINGEN               91  71  89  67 /   0  20  40   0
MCALLEN                 95  73  92  71 /   0  10  30   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         94  69  91  68 /   0   0  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      85  79  85  78 /   0  40  30   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  74  86  71 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman