Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
949 FXUS64 KBRO 200437 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1037 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Warm temperatures are expected through the forecast period with record to near record-breaking temperatures possible through this week. - A low to medium chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Otherwise daily low (15-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected. - South-southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting up to 30 mph are expected into next week. - Adverse marine and coastal conditions are possible through early next week due to moderate to breezy winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 An unsettled weather pattern returns on Thursday and will linger through the weekend as an upper level low brings a cold front into Texas slowly making its way towards the CWA early next week. Moisture pooling along with daytime instability will increase rain chances, mainly across the Ranchlands, on Friday (around a 20% chance). As the front pushes into southern and eastern Texas on Saturday, rain chances will increase to 30-50% then decrease Sunday and Monday (15-30%) as the front lingers across near the northern border of the CWA. Additionally, an increased pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned front will lead to breezy conditions on Thursday and again in the later part of the weekend into early next week. The front will finally push through late Monday into Tuesday, though low rain chances will continue into next week, mainly along the coast. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with the potential for record breaking highs through the remainder of this week into the weekend. While the cold front early next week will cool things slightly, temperatures will remain above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. There will be a potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility early tomorrow morning, primarily at MFE. Could see some patchy fog develop but elevated winds should keep much of this at bay. Winds become breezy mid morning to early afternoon again on Thursday with gusts of 25 to 30 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A locally enhanced pressure gradient will lead to slightly adverse conditions, mainly each afternoon, through the end of the week for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. The pressure gradient tightens further ahead of a cold front leading to breezy conditions Sunday ahead of the boundary with Small Craft Advisories likely needed late Sunday into Monday. The aforementioned cold front will pass through the waters late Monday into Tuesday with associated rain chances through much of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 73 88 74 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 91 69 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 73 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 92 69 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 83 77 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 71 86 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...68