454
FXUS64 KBRO 302327
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
527 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

* Cool temperatures and overcast skies are forecast through
  Tuesday. Southeasterly winds look to bring warmer temperatures
  Wednesday.

* Adverse to dangerous surf and marine conditions are forecast to
  continue through Monday morning

* Another cold front looks to move through the area Thursday,
  bringing additional rain chances through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

In the wake of today`s cold front, cool temperatures and
lingering rain chances are forecast for the next couple days.
Temperatures behind the front are forecast to range from the upper
50s to 60s this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight are forecast
to fall into the 40s across the area. Northerly winds look to
continue into the day Monday, supporting additional CAA while
mostly cloudy skies will limit daytime heating. This combination
will likely keep high temperatures in the 50s Monday afternoon.

A coastal trough will likely develop in the wake of the front,
though there is some uncertainty in how far offshore this trough
develops. This will likely result in mostly cloudy skies
continuing in the wake of the front, as well as the potential for
interment light rain or drizzle through Monday.

Southeasterly winds look to briefly return Wednesday, before
another cold front arrives on Thursday. This will likely allow
high temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday
afternoon before falling back to the low to mid 70s behind the
front Thursday. Rain chances will increase with the front on
Thursday and remain elevated going into the weekend as an
overrunning pattern looks to set up over the shallow cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Through 00z Tuesday....Latest sfc, satellite, and radar observations
depicted an OVC deck of MVFR-IFR stratus clouds with ceilings
ranging between 700-2,300 feet AGL with unrestricted
visibilities, and VCSH nearby. MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to
prevail through the 00z TAF period with cloud coverage and
ceilings improving marginally towards the end of the TAF period.
VCSH are expected to persist through tonight before waning on
Monday.

Blustery north-northwest winds are expected to prevail through tonight
with speeds between 10-15 kts or so and gusts between 20-25 kts or
so. On Monday, northwest winds will weaken with speeds between 5-12
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Hazardous marine conditions are forecast to continue into Monday
morning. Northerly winds between 20-25 knot are forecast to build
seas to 6-7 feet this afternoon and tonight. Conditions are
forecast to briefly improve by Monday afternoon but an other surge
of northerly winds Monday night will likely bring another round
of adverse conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory remain in effect until 6 AM Monday, and
additional Small Craft Advisories or Small Craft Should Exercise
Caution headlines will likely be needed Monday night into Tuesday.

Generally favorable conditions are forecast to return Tuesday
evening, with winds briefly shift back to the southeast Wednesday.
Another cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday,
though wind speeds look to remain lower with this front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             49  65  54  64 /  50  30  20  20
HARLINGEN               47  62  49  62 /  40  30  10  10
MCALLEN                 48  63  52  63 /  30  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         47  64  50  63 /  30  10  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      54  67  56  68 /  70  40  40  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     49  65  50  66 /  60  30  30  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma