188
FXUS64 KBRO 092321
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
621 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Tropical moisture moving ashore will bring a 20-30% chance of
  showers (mostly E of US 281/I-69C) tonight through early
  tomorrow before high pressure sets in and drier weather takes
  hold for most of next week.

- Seasonable high temperatures are expected throughout the week,
  with slightly cooler low temperatures starting this weekend.

- High risk of rip currents at area beaches expected to continue
  into tomorrow, with minor coastal flooding expected around high
  tide this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Due to recent coastal observations and webcam footage of the surf,
we have upgraded the Rip Current Risk to High for the rest of
today and tonight. In addition, we have issued a Coastal Flood
Statement. Minor coastal flooding is expected this evening into
tonight, especially around high tide. Additional Coastal Flood
Statments may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

A tropical disturbance to our south is moving inland from the Bay of
Campeche into Mexico, bringing a wave of tropical moisture and
increased precipitation chances to our area tonight into early
tomorrow. From there, upper level ridging is expected to settle over
our area into the next week, which will dry out conditions and
reduce precipitation chances to less than 10 percent for all of Deep
South Texas starting Friday evening and continuing through next
week.  The exception is on Tuesday when a short-lived, weak coastal
trough off the Mexican will bring a brief wave of moisture that
could result in a small (20% or less) chance of isolated sea breeze
showers to the central Rio Grande Valley.

High temperatures are expected to be around seasonal, with highs
getting up into the lower 90s.  Low temperatures are expected to get
into the low 70s while moisture remains in place, but as drier air
and clearer skies start to settle in on Friday evening, lows will be
in the mid to upper 60s for a majority of the CWA, excepting coastal
areas, which will continue to see lows in the 70s.  Winds are
expected to be overall northeasterly for the weekend into early next
week, veering to a more southeasterly direction by the middle of
next week.

A high risk of rip currents is expected to continue through
tonight, and may continue into the weekend as the area receives
onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Through 00z Saturday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the 00z TAF cycle. There could be a shower or two around
from time to time through Friday morning. Have VCSH showers to
account for the potential of a few showers around from time to time
as overall precipitation trends downward in coverage and probability
over time.

East-northeast winds 10-15 kts this evening will decrease to 5-10
kts tonight. East-northeast winds will pick up again on Friday with
sppeds between 10-15 kts and gusts between 20-25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Elevated winds due to a tropical disturbance coming ashore to the
south into Mexico along with an increased pressure gradient are
expected to continue Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions in the
bay and offshore waters through tomorrow night. High pressure is
then expected to settle in, which will improve marine conditions to
more favorable levels with light to moderate northeasterly winds and
wave heights between 2 and 4 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             77  89  71  89 /  40  30   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  91  66  91 /  20  20   0   0
MCALLEN                 76  94  69  94 /  20  30   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         72  93  65  93 /  20  30   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  86  79  85 /  40  20   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     76  88  71  87 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma