437
FXUS64 KBRO 201951
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
251 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The high pressure that has been parked in the middle layers of the
atmosphere is allowing for similar conditions over Deep South Texas
to persist. Slightly above average temperatures are expected
throughout the forecast period, however, easterly flow is bringing
in elevated dew points thereby increasing "feels like" temperatures
to over 100 degrees F. Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid
70`s to low 80`s. The WPCs experimental Heat Risk product indicates
a majority of Deep South Texas will remain in a moderate risk for
heat. However, near coastal zones and northern Hidalgo county in a
minor risk on Saturday, though Heat Advisory criteria are not
expected as the heat indices are below Heat Advisory criteria.

Isolated storms along the seabreeze will continue into early this
evening and diminished by nightfall. As was the case today, forcing
from the sea breeze will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area beginning mid-morning through Saturday
afternoon. Swell and period are expected to increase starting
Saturday night, however, rip risk will remain low in the short
term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The mid-level ridge over the region is expected to become more
elongated by the start of the period. However, it will still be a
big influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley for most of the long term forecast. However, during the
period, the mid-level ridge will be moving off towards the east.
Chances of rain start to increase on Tuesday, resulting in isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the period as
tropical moisture start to work its way into the region. However,
the PWAT values are not very high, so odds are not very high for
heavy rainfall at this time.

As for temperatures, highs are expected be in the 90s for the
period. Heat indices are expected to be under Heat Advisory Criteria
and a Special Weather Statement is not likely to be needed either.
Low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with a few
places getting into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period.
However, some MVFR conditions are possible as the sea breeze moves
through the area during the afternoon hours. However, those
conditions seem to be present for only a short amount of time.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible, but confidence is
not high enough to include in the TAF package. Southeasterly to
easterly winds are expected through the period as well, and should
remain mostly light for the period. Maybe a bit gustier for MFE,
but that should also be for a very short time period as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Now through Saturday night...Favorable marine conditions continue
along the Deep South Texas Coast. Light to moderate southeast to
east southeast winds and light seas of 1 to 2 feet, increasing to 3
feet on Saturday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible into this evening and through Saturday. Wind and waves may
be briefly higher during thunderstorms.

Sunday through Next Friday...Light to moderate easterly to
southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas will hold through most
of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible, and could result in locally elevated winds and seas where
thunderstorms are present. Marine conditions could become more
adverse to hazardous depending on the development of a potential
tropical system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
HARLINGEN               76  92  74  92 /   0  20   0  20
MCALLEN                 80  96  78  96 /   0  20   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         78  94  76  95 /  10  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  81  87 /  10  20  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  89  77  90 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69-HK
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz