432
FXUS64 KBRO 092346 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
546 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect through this evening across the
  Northern Ranchlands due to the combination of very low
  humidity, dry fuels, and breezy winds. A Fire Danger Statement
  is in effect for the Rio Grande Valley and Coastal/Island Kenedy
  County.

- A Gale Warning is in effect through late tonight for the Gulf
  waters, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna
  Madre through Monday afternoon.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory is in effect
  through at least Monday evening along the Lower Texas beaches.
  Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially near high
  tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The much anticipated cold front has swept across Deep South Texas
as of earlier this morning, with breezy northerly winds ushering a
notably drier and cooler airmass in its wake. Post-frontal stratus
clouds have developed, and are expected to persist through at
least the mid afternoon hours before clearing out. While many are
looking forward to below normal temperatures to start the work
week, we`ll have to contend with hazardous marine, beach, and fire
weather conditions through at least tomorrow evening. There may be
a brief period tonight into tomorrow morning where a Coastal Flood
Statement/Advisory may be needed as we approach high tide.
Otherwise, temperatures this afternoon should remain mostly in
the 70s, although a few areas across the Northern Ranchlands may
fall into the upper 60s due to persistent cold air advection.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s across the
Northern Ranchlands to low 50s across the Rio Grande Valley. A
tight pressure gradient will keep northerly winds elevated
tonight, which will result in apparent temperatures closer to the
upper 30s and low 40s across the Northern Ranchlands to around 50
degrees across the Rio Grande Valley. As persistent cold air
advection continues into Monday via brisk northerly winds and wind
gusts, opted to bump high temperatures slightly lower by 1-3
degrees across the Rio Grande Valley and along the Lower Texas
beaches, with most areas realizing high temperatures in the upper
60s to low 70s. Efficient radiational cooling processes will set
up Monday night into Tuesday morning region wide as winds become
light and skies remain generally clear. Low temperatures will
likely dip into the upper 30s and low 40s across the Northern
Ranchlands and Mid/Upper RGV, and closer to the mid 40s across the
Lower RGV.

Low level southerly to southeasterly flow returns by Tuesday,
marking the start of warming trend through the rest of the week.
Guidance indicates an upper level trough and attendant surface low
will dig into the Plains by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Northerly winds will likely persist through the period. Wind
gusts have recently begun to drop off across most inland areas,
remaining more frequent near the coast. However, model guidance
continues to show additional wind gusts overnight and into the day
Monday at all three TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Hazardous marine conditions will prevail through at least Monday
afternoon/evening over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre in wake of
the passage of a cold front this morning. A Gale Warning is in
effect through 06Z Monday over the Gulf waters, but may need to be
extended to 12Z Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
through 18Z Monday across the Laguna Madre, and a Small Craft
Advisory will likely be issued for the Gulf waters from 12Z
Monday through 18Z Monday due to the combination of winds around
20-30 knots and seas of 10-12 feet. There should be improvement by
Monday evening as the pressure gradient weakens, with generally
favorable marine conditions by Tuesday. Small Craft Exercise
Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions return on Wednesday and
once again over the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The passage of a strong cold front will bring increased fire
weather concerns through this evening, and once again Monday
afternoon, across most of Deep South Texas. This is due to the
combination of a notably drier airmass filtering in, breezy north
winds, and dry fuels.

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening across
Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Inland Kenedy counties as afternoon
relative humidity values fall below 25% and 20-foot winds range
from 15-20 MPH. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the rest
of Deep South Texas, as relative humidity values remain slightly
higher and 20-foot winds remain slightly lower.

Although relative humidity values are expected to be lower on
Monday, with values ranging from 15-30%, 20-foot are expected to
range from 5-10 MPH along and west of I-69E and closer to 10-15
MPH along and east of I-69E. A Red Flag Warning likely will not be
issued, but a Fire Danger Statement may be warranted given the dry
fuels and potential for occasional higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             56  68  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               50  68  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 52  70  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         48  70  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      59  67  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     57  67  49  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>251.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...60-BE