Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
982 FXUS64 KBRO 091716 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1116 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Ridging aloft keeps very low (less than 10%) probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) today through Friday. - Average temperatures today and tonight become above average tomorrow through the majority of the 7 day forecast as winds generally return out of the south-southeast, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. - Low chances of rain (15-30%) are possible over the weekend as several cold fronts arrive near to or pass through the County Warning Area (CWA). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Persistent ridging aloft is expected to maintain dry (less than 10% PoPs) conditions and plentiful sunshine across Deep South Texas today through Friday. Northerly winds gradually veer to southerly by late tonight as a surface high pressure shifts from the Deep South US to to the Southeast coast. A weak cold front approaches the northern ranchlands tomorrow afternoon and possibly moves southward into portions of the CWA overnight, briefly shifting winds out of the north late tomorrow night into Thursday morning before returning out of the south-southeast by Thursday evening. Another cold front moving into central Texas on Friday may lead to weak coastal troughing with a low (15-20%) chance of rain along the coast Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Low (15-30%) chances of rain may return on Sunday across the entire region as yet another cold front approaches and possibly passes through Deep South Texas, with coastal troughing keeping a low (15-30%) chance of rain near the coast, lingering into Tuesday. However, uncertainty remains in timing, location and strength of these upcoming cold fronts, so chances of rain and forecast temperatures (below) are subject to chance. Near average temperatures are expected today and tonight with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 70s and overnight lows falling to the 50s inland and 60s across the barrier islands. Above average temperatures return tomorrow and into the rest of the forecast period as winds become mainly southeasterly to southerly, with highs in the 80s tomorrow, 70s and 80s on Thursday and 80s Friday through Sunday. Following the cold front on Sunday, average temperatures are possible next Monday (in the 70s), but warm again with 80s possible on Tuesday. Overnight lows generally remain in the 50s and 60s. A low risk of rip currents continues today through the afternoon tomorrow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Light to gentle north-northeasterly winds gradually veer to easterly this afternoon and southeasterly by this evening, followed by calm to light and variable winds overnight. VFR conditions continue into the afternoon tomorrow along with light southeasterly to southerly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025 Favorable marine conditions are anticipated over the next 7 days across the Lower Texas coastal waters as gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 ft) seas prevail through at least Saturday. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible on Sunday as a cold front possibly moves through, leading to potentially moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas, followed by moderate easterly winds and seas by Monday, becoming southeasterly again next Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 74 52 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 75 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 52 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 64 76 67 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 57 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...65-Irish LONG TERM....65-Irish AVIATION...65-Irish