Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
055 FXUS64 KBRO 111110 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 510 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 507 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 -Rain free and pleasant conditions continue through Thursday, with a warming trend into the weekend -Low to medium (30 to 40%) rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday along a stalling frontal boundary && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 In the wake of the week cold front that moved through the area Wednesday afternoon, light northerly winds are forecast to continue into the day Thursday. This cooler air mass looks to keep high temperatures in the low to mid 70s Thursday afternoon. By Thursday evening, winds look to shift back to the southeast, allowing warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday. A broad upper-level trough looks to remain over the Eastern US this weekend, with an embedded shortwave moving into the Upper Midwest Saturday. This looks to drive another surge of cold air southward, with a cold front forecast to move through Deep South Texas Sunday. Rain chances look to increase to around 30-40% Sunday as the front moves through the area. An overrunning pattern may setup behind the front, allowing increased cloud cover persist into Monday or Tuesday, though rain chances look to decrease to below 10%. Low temperatures Sunday night look to drop into the 50s to low 60s while high temperatures Monday look to range from the mid 60s to low 70s. Southeasterly return flow looks to setup again by Tuesday afternoon, allowing warmer temperatures to return by mid week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 The TAF cycle will mostly see VFR conditions through the TAF period. However, for the next several hours, patches of fog is expected to impact HRL and BRO sites reducing visibilities to IFR. This is only expected to last for the next couple of hours and should burn away a little after sunrise. The winds for the rest of the period are expected generally light and out of the north. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Favorable marine conditions look to persist through Saturday. The arrival of a cold front Sunday will likely see winds increasing to around 20 knots and seas building to 5-6 feet. This will likely require Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or a Small Craft Advisory Sunday through Monday morning. Conditions look to improve by Monday afternoon. With light to moderate winds and moderate seas likely continuing through the remainder of the forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 63 82 67 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 76 58 83 62 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 62 86 66 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 57 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 67 76 69 / 10 0 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 62 80 65 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...60 LONG TERM....60 AVIATION...64-Katz