704
FXUS64 KBRO 151118 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The mid-level ridge continues to stay in place over Deep South Texas
and the Rio Grande Valley, as such above normal temperatures with
very low chances in rain are expected to last through the short term
forecast period. With the atmosphere aloft being dry still, the
environment will continue to be unfavorable for the development for
showers and thunderstorms to develop. However, it is still possible
that the seabreeze could kick up a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon today and tomorrow.

As for the temperatures, the highs for today and tomorrow are
expected to be in the range of upper 90s for most of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, while parts of Starr, Zapata, and
Jim Hogg could reach into the triple digits. Meanwhile the heat
indices are expected to be in the range of 105 to 110 degrees for
today and tomorrow. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to
be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the Lower Rio Grande
Valley reaching into the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

This portion of the total forecast is highly dependent on the
future development and movement of a tropical system that may
develop in the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. At a minimum, deep
tropical moisture, featuring precipitable water values between 2
and roughly 2.75 inches, will flux into the BRO CWFA from the Bay
of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico. This will result in a
steadily-increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms, with
initially isolated to scattered convection over the eastern
portion of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley gradually
transitioning to scattered to numerous activity across the whole
of the area by the end of the long term period. With the exception
of the northern halves of Brooks County, Jim Hogg County, and
Zapata County, where no drought exists, the latest drought map
indicates Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions over the
remainder of the inland portion of the BRO CWFA. Aforementioned
substantial rains, if they materialize, will have the possibility
of ending any and all drought within the region by the time of
their conclusion.

Temperature-wise, above normal daytime highs, not surprisingly,
will be cooled to slightly below normal levels courtesy of
increased cloud cover and the significant chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Heat indices may result in a SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT Monday through Friday, with a HEAT ADVISORY not expected
to be needed for that time frame.

Additionally, with elevated seas anticipated along the Lower Texas
Coast (please see the MARINE section below), an elevated risk of
rip currents (MODERATE or HIGH), COASTAL FLOOD products (ADVISORY
or WARNING), and HIGH SURF products (ADVISORY or WARNING) are
likely to be needed at the local beaches, possibly commencing on
Monday night or Tuesday.

Finally, some model guidance suggests that a more organized
tropical system will be in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula
late June 21st or early June 22nd, traversing across the Gulf of
Mexico for a couple of days afterwards. Given the amount of time
yet to pass, nothing definite is laid in stone, so will simply
have to monitor this concern as the second week of June becomes
the third.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF cycle at
all TAF sites. Mostly light easterly to southeasterly winds are
expected, however some stronger gusts are possible during the
afternoon. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon with the passage of the seabreeze, but confidence
is too low to include in the TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Favorable conditions are expected to persist through Sunday, as a
weak pressure gradient remains over the Lower Texas Coast. Light
to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected with some
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.

(Sunday Night through Friday)
This portion of the marine forecast remains highly dependent on
the future development and movement of a tropical system that may
develop in the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday. If model guidance is
to believed, Small Craft Advisory conditions, at a minimum, are
possible along the Lower Texas Coast beginning Monday night,
especially for the Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical
miles offshore. Mariners are advised to monitor the Coastal Waters
Forecast through the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  80  96  80 /  10  10  30  30
HARLINGEN               98  75  98  76 /  10   0  20  20
MCALLEN                 99  79 100  79 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        100  77 100  78 /   0   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  83  88  82 /  10  10  40  40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  80  93  79 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...64-Katz