009
FXUS64 KBRO 021753
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1153 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

 - Chances of rain increase to a low to medium (30-60%) chance
   inland and to a medium to likely (60-80%) chance near the coast
   by Thursday evening in association with an offshore coastal
   low.

 - Up to half an inch of rain is possible near the immediate coast
   line Thursday into Friday.

 - Adverse marine conditions return on Thursday in wake of a cold
   front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft
   Advisory headlines possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A surface high pressure over northeastern Texas continues to push a
cold front southward and offshore throughout the day today,
reducing chances of rain across Deep South Texas to less than 10%
tonight into tomorrow morning. A developing offshore coastal low
increases probabilities of rain to a low to medium (20-40%) chance
across coastal and island areas tomorrow afternoon through
tomorrow night. A cold front pushing through Thursday morning
further increases probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) from a
low to medium (20-50%) chance in the morning, highest near the
coast, to a low to medium (30-60%) chance inland and a medium to
high (60-80%) chance across coastal and island areas throughout
Thursday evening. Overnight Thursday, PoP`s decrease to a low
(15-20%) chance over the northern ranchlands and a low to medium
(30-40%) chance closer to the immediate coast by Friday morning,
further decreasing throughout the day, though a low to medium
(30-40%) chance returns across the County Warning Area Friday
night as further rounds of high pressure surge through, enhancing
convergence. Currently, we are anticipating as much as a half inch
of rain near the immediate coastline from Thursday into Friday.
Following a low (15-20%) chance of rain near the Lower Texas coast
line on Saturday morning, drier conditions prevail into the
beginning of next with the next possible chances of rain possibly
by next Tuesday.

Temperatures continue to remain well below average as highs today
only reach into the upper 50s/lower 60s, falling to the 40s and 50s
tonight inland and low 60s at the beaches. As the surface high
pressure continues northeastward to the mid-Atlantic by tomorrow
night, southeasterly to easterly winds return tomorrow into
Thursday, warming highs back to near normal, into the upper 60s
and and 70s as well as 50s/60s tomorrow night. Temperatures
plummet again Thursday night behind the front, with 40s/50s Friday
morning only rising to the 50s/60s in the afternoon. More
seasonable temperatures return Saturday and onward, possibly
maximizing in the low 80`s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Ceilings have risen to VFR levels, which should prevail through
the afternoon and early evening with peaks of sunshine becoming
more plentiful along with northerly winds of about 9-12 knots.
MVFR ceilings are expected following sunset at KBRO and KHRL while
VFR prevails at KMFE along with calm or light and variable winds.
Late tonight and into early tomorrow morning, MVFR ceilings lower
to IFR, possibly lower, at KHRL and KBRO while KMFE lowers to
MVFR before ceilings gradually rise back to VFR by tomorrow
afternoon across all terminals along with gentle to moderate
northerly winds similar to today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Gentle to moderate northerly winds and moderate (4-6 ft) seas
during the day today become southeasterly to southerly with
slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas by tomorrow morning. A cold front
passes through Thursday morning, likely bringing Small Craft
Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions as moderate to fresh northerly
winds arrive in its wake, elevating seas. A Small Craft Advisory
may be possible. Conditions improve on Friday, with more ideal
conditions lingering into the beginning of next week. Chances of
rain increase from a low to medium (20-40%) chance tomorrow to as
much as a medium to likely (69-90%) chance by Thursday evening.
Probabilities gradually decrease to a low (less than 10%) by
Sunday, possibly increasing again next Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             59  56  75  68 /  20  10  20  10
HARLINGEN               58  54  74  64 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN                 60  55  75  66 /  10   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         63  51  74  62 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      63  63  76  71 /  20  10  40  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     59  58  74  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132-
     135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish