634
FXUS64 KBRO 011732
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1132 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

* A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 00z tomorrow
  evening due to elevated winds and wave heights

* Adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist through at
  least Tuesday.

* Temperatures are expected to remain cool through tomorrow then
  gradually warm mid-week before another cold front arrives
  Thursday into Friday. This will increase rain chances later in
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A coastal low has developed in the wake of a strong cold front that
passed through the region over the weekend.  This has kept skies
cloudy, and due to the close proximity of the coastal low to the
shore, stronger cold air advection due to higher northerly winds is
continuing to funnel colder air into the region.  The NAM is
capturing this best when comparing to current observations over both
land and water, so the NAM was utilized heavily in the immediate
forecast for tonight.  Low temperatures tonight should be in the
upper 40s with continued cloudy skies.

For tomorrow, models are not consistent on how close the coastal low
is going to stay within our area.  If it stays close to the shore,
skies will stay cloudier (limiting daytime heating) and the pressure
gradient will remain tighter and winds will be stronger, resulting
in continued CAA and cooler temps.  However, if it moves further
away from our area, the pressure gradient could relax and skies
would clear a little bit more, resulting in slight gradual warming.
The NAM is keeping temperatures cooler, whereas other guidance
(including the NBM) has Deep South Texas warming a bit quicker, so
to account for the uncertainty of the path of the coastal low the
NAM was blended with the NBM for tomorrow and tomorrow night`s
forecast.  High temperatures tomorrow should reach the upper
50s/lower 60s, with lows cooling to the lower 50s with a few ares in
the Northern and Western Ranchlands still experiencing temperatures
in the upper 40s.

The winds are expected to veer to a southerly direction ahead of
another approaching shortwave by Wednesday, and skies should become
much clearer.  This will allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-
upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday, before the next cold front comes
through with the next system.  This next cold front also has the
potential to be strong like the previous front.  Current thinking is
that Friday`s highs will be in the mid-60s, but this surge of colder
air could trend colder as additional guidance comes in, especially
as snowpack becomes more established over the northern US.

Conditions should overall be dry through midweek, until the next
shortwave trough comes through Thursday into Friday, which will
increase rain chances throughout Deep South Texas.  Chances will be
low to moderate (30-40%) for the Western Ranchlands, with moderate
(40-60%) chances for areas east of I-69C. Rain chances will linger
but remain low (20-30%) through Friday.

Rip current risk remains high through tomorrow due to elevated winds
and seas, creating hazardous surf conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR conditions are being observed at area airports due to lower
ceilings, with MFE having intermittent periods of IFR that are
expected to improve to MVFR within the next few hours. Conditions
should stay MVFR throughout the TAF period with overcast skies and
light to moderate northerly winds

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 00z tomorrow
evening due to winds offshore and wave heights remaining elevated.
Once conditions do get below Small Craft Advisory criteria, Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions will persist.  Conditions could
briefly improve later on Tuesday into Wednesday, but another frontal
system Thursday into Friday will likely warrant more Small Craft
Advisories later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             51  59  52  73 /   0   0   0  20
HARLINGEN               48  58  51  71 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 49  59  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         50  61  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      57  64  54  76 /  40  20   0  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     52  61  56  74 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55-MM
LONG TERM....55-MM
AVIATION...55-MM