Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
908 FXUS64 KBRO 161730 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue across Deep South Texas through mid-week. By Wednesday, winds should increase which could elevate fire danger. - There is a small to medium (20 to 40 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday with the passage of the next cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 High pressure is expected to continue over Deep South Texas and slowly drift eastward as another upper level trough approaches from the west and ejects over the Southern Plains mid-week. Precipitation- free and unseasonably warm weather is expected to continue through at least Wednesday evening. Highs will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Thursday, and then drop back down into the low-to-mid 80s on Friday as a weak cold front arrives to the area. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s, and cool to the upper 50s/lower 60s by Friday night once the front makes its way through Deep South Texas. The approaching upper level trough will also increase wind speeds Wednesday night into Thursday as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. As the winds pick up and fuels continue to dry out from rain-free conditions, fire danger is expected to increase. There will also be an increased chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night across all of Deep South Texas due ample moisture and frontal convergence. Rain chances may also continue into the weekend if the frontal boundary stalls and lingers in the area. If this happens, the highest weekend chances would be east of US 281/I-69E. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 VFR conditions expected at all airports with light to moderate southeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Marine conditions will be overall favorable through Wednesday, but SCEC conditions are possible each afternoon, especially in the Laguna Madre. By Wednesday Night, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten ahead of an approaching cold front, and Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible through Thursday night before conditions start to improve again. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 72 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 82 76 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55-MM LONG TERM....55-MM AVIATION...55-MM