706
FXUS61 KBTV 011710
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1210 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
More snow showers are moving through this morning with minor
accumulations possible through sunrise. Focus continues to
remain on two systems expected to impact the region Tuesday and
Thursday. Tuesday`s system will bring widespread snow
accumulations with potential for heavy snowfall mainly across
portions of southern Vermont. The Thursday system could bring
squall-like showers followed by a blast of cold air that will
decrease temperatures well below seasonal averages Thursday
night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 128 AM EST Monday...A front is moving through the region
this morning bringing snow showers with minor snow accumulations
generally less than 1 inch except southeast of Highway 11 in
southeastern St Lawrence and north-central Franklin counties of
New York where up to 2 inches are possible. Radar shows snow
showers over northern New York progressing eastward towards
Vermont. Models project this area of showers to break down as it
tracks eastward, but if it holds together (about a 25% chance),
timing could place showers in the Champlain Valley for the
morning commute possibly causing some visibility issues and
minor traffic disruptions.

Otherwise, a blustery day is ahead behind this front with ample
cold air advection depressing temperatures to around 10 degrees
below seasonal averages. Highs will generally be in the 20s for
most locations except for southern Vermont which will likely
reach the low 30s before the front moves through. Heights and
pressure rise this afternoon through the early overnight hours
with fast moving migratory high pressure passing through.
Temperatures will cool into the teens for most spots with
single digits for portions of the Adirondacks and northeastern
Vermont. Clouds will be increasing sharply late as the next
system moves into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 128 AM EST Monday...

* A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for central and southern
  portions of Vermont from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
  night where some locations could exceed 7 inches of snowfall.

* Widespread 2-4 inches are expected elsewhere with 1-3 for
  much of northern New York.

* Impacts to the morning and evening commute are anticipated.

Snowfall will spread northward Tuesday morning as low pressure
moves out of the mid Atlantic region to just off the New England
coast. Not much has changed in terms of the forecast track of
the low and position of the 925/850mb 0C lines which will remain
south of Vermont keeping precipitation character all snow. Some
subtle shifts have occurred and could have implications on SLR
while speed of the system promotes limited QPF; the result is a
very marginal decrease in snow amounts. NBM probabilities for
greater than 7 inches remain fairly low and relegated to
southern Vermont while other statistical analysis puts of to a
30% chance for exceeding 7 inches. As such, have opted to keep
the watch out. Moisture transport (IVT) projections of the 250
kg/ms do show significant moisture transport into north-central
Vermont suggesting a period of up to 0.25" of liquid equivalent
pushing into the Chittenden County to NEK areas. I`d like to see
slightly higher IVT to support snowfall greater than 4 inches,
but this could produce totals generally 2-4 inches with a few
spots seeing 5 inches in portions of northern Vermont. All
locations from Washington County to the Watch area are on the
edge of needing an Winter Weather Advisory while southern
Vermont will likely exceed 4 inches, but the question is will
they exceed 7 inches moving southern locations into Winter Storm
Warning territory. Speed of this system will be the main
limiting factor with the system exiting Tuesday night. Looking
at box and whisker plots for the current forecast is at the
75th percentile mark with based on WPC probabilities, suggesting
potential for knocking totals down another inch or so if
current model trends hold.

Wednesday will be the lull between systems. Some lake enhanced
showers may begin Wednesday afternoon as flow turns more
southwesterly ahead of an arctic front approaching the
Northeast. Temperatures are expected to be around average
Wednesday with highs in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 128 AM EST Monday...An active and wintry pattern will continue
across the region as we head through the week into the weekend. An
arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, bringing breezy
winds and the potential for snow squalls, which would make for
hazardous travel conditions, especially if they coincide with the
Thursday morning commute. Some greater snow accumulations continue
to look likely across the St. Lawrence Valley and portions of the
western Adirondacks ahead of and along the front due to some lake
enhancement, and while current amounts are sub advisory levels, the
trends for this area will need to be monitored.

Behind the front, sharply cold air will move into the region,
bringing some unusually cold temperatures of early December.
Overnight lows Thursday night look to drop into single digits above
and below zero areawide, with wind chill values dipping below zero
with some higher elevations approaching -20F. Temperatures will
continue to be cold throughout the weekend, with high temperatures
generally in the 20s to near freezing. Additional chances for
widespread precipitation look to arrive towards the weekend, but
there is still a wide range of possibilities at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Any lingering MVFR cigs at our mtn taf
sites will become VFR in the next 1 to 3 hours. Gusty northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots will become 5 to
10 knots by sunset. Next aviation challenge will be arrival time
of snow on Tuesday morning from southwest to northeast across or
taf sites and associated IFR visibilities. Expecting light snow
with visibilities between 1-2SM (IFR) to develop between 11-13z
on Tuesday with intervals of moderate snow likely with LIFR
(1/2SM) conditions mainly south of a SLK to BTV to 1V4 line by
15z Tuesday. CIGS generally drop into the MVFR range as the snow
arrives on Tues morning with some periods of IFR CIGS possible
in the heavier snow bands. Winds will shift to the
south/southeast at 4 to 8 knots, except northeast at MSS on
Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect with westerly flow
producing frequent gusts in excess of 25kts. These speeds may
slow a bit by daybreak, but will increase with gusts frequently
exceeding 25kts again behind the front as background flow turns
more northwesterly driving a northerly wind across Lake
Champlain. Waves of 2 to 4 feet are expected into this afternoon
before winds subside.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for VTZ010-011-018>021.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
MARINE...Team BTV
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV