080
FXUS61 KBTV 031111
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
611 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is on tap for the North Country and Vermont for most
of today before lake-effect snow develops downwind of Lake Ontario
ahead of an arctic cold front this evening. Along the frontal
passage heavier snow showers and an increased threat for snow
squalls is expected tonight through midday Thursday. Frigid
conditions follow for Thursday night with widespread lows in the
single digits above and below zero, but temperatures moderate
slightly thereafter heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM EST Wednesday...Deepening low pressure well east of the
benchmark this morning continues to shift farther offshore ending
widespread snowfall across the forecast area. In its wake, weak
upper level ridging will develop this afternoon along for some
breaks in the clouds, with quiet weather expected. Upstream, a
strong arctic front approaches shifting surface winds to the
south/southwest this afternoon with some gusts upwards of 25 mph
likely in the St. Lawrence Valley towards and after sunset. Highs
will be slightly below normal in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:
* Lake effect snow likely in St. Lawrence County tonight into
  Thursday, potentially up to 6" across southern sections.
* Snow showers likely with potential snow squalls early
  Thursday through midday followed by frigid temperatures
  Thursday night.

Main focus of weather for the period continues to be the widely
advertised arctic cold front descending from James Bay tonight and
its associated impacts through Thursday night. Ahead of the front,
increasing southwesterly winds will aid in the development of lake
effect snow showers downwind of Lake Ontario into central and
southern sections of St. Lawrence county with potentially locally
heavy snow south of Route 58 where upwards of 4" of accumulation is
possible overnight. As the front traverses northern New York and
north/central Vermont early to midday Thursday, soundings continue
to show deep mixing developing along with some weak elevated CAPE
sufficient enough to produce snow squalls. This is well supported by
the 00Z CAMs and the current timing unfortunately coincides with the
morning commute around 7-9 AM for the northern Champlain Valley and
could potentially have large impacts if the timing holds with rapid
snow accumulations of 1-2", near whiteout conditions, and wind gusts
in excess of 30 mph possible.

Based on the current frontal passage timing, temperatures will
follow a non-diurnal curve with highs generally in the 20s occurring
in the morning, then falling sharply thereafter to the low teens by
sunset. Furthermore, as winds abate and skies clear Thursday night,
frigid temperatures will set in with widespread lows in the single
digits above and below zero expected Friday morning. The good news
is that the deep cold doesn`t last as winds turn southerly Friday
afternoon and temperatures will warm into teens and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 AM EST Wednesday...There is a strong signal for colder than
average temperatures continuing through the weekend into early next
week with the region under broad cyclonic flow and the 540dm
thickness line well displaced southward over the mid-Atlantic
States. Flow is favored to to remain progressive as polar gyre keeps
flow unblocked downstream and cold temperatures in place. Models are
honing in on a couple of waves: one on saturday with its parent low
tracking across northern Canada and the other projected to more
directly hit the Northeast as the base of the longwave lifts
northward by the middle of next week. Aside from the snow showers
Saturday associated with the first wave, little impact is expected.
Higher terrain will be favored for snow showers and also portions of
the St Lawrence Valley as flow turns southwesterly promoting some
lake enhancement off of Lake Ontario. Benign, but seasonably cold
weather follows early next week between waves with potential for a
period of strong radiational cooling when high pressure crest across
the region. Current timing of these cold conditions are centered on
Monday with temperatures likely running 15-20 degrees below seasonal
averages with lows in the single digits around zero and highs in the
teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread IFR is beginning to thin as
dry air erodes low level CIGS. Some weak northwest flow is
keeping some IFR CIGs at BTV/SLK/RUT as moisture moves upslope.
By 15Z, low level CIGs should erode enough for improvement to
VFR for all terminals; biggest question is at MSS where upstream
low level CIGs remain. Winds start northwesterly before
swinging out of the south after 15Z, and increasing after 00Z
with some gusts to 20kts likely. LLWS is expected for
MSS/SLK/RUT/MPV as winds aloft increase after 00Z as well.
Shower chances increase at MSS as southwest flow transports lake
enhanced snow showers off of Lake Ontario. Expecting mainly MVFR
until the Arctic front approaches with gusty westerly winds and
potential for snow squalls. A line of strongly forced snow
showers will track eastward likely reaching BTV in the 10-14Z
time frame on Thursday. IFR or worse VIS is probable with any
squalls.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV