773
FXUS61 KBTV 090526
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1226 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, but very cold conditions will continue to prevail across the
region tonight into tomorrow morning before south winds begin to
increase during the day tomorrow. Several rounds of snow are
expected throughout the week, with the most widespread precipitation
expected to occur Wednesday into Wednesday night. After a brief warm
up mid week, colder temperatures will return by week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 648 PM EST Monday...Updated forecast to lower overnight
minimum temperatures a bit as temperatures area already dropping
sharply. Lows will reach the teens below zero in the coldest
spots of the Greens and Dacks. Most over Vermont should dip
below zero, with the warmest temperatures expected along Lake
Champlain. Previous discussion follows.

Dry but cold conditions are expected to continue tonight into
the first portion of the day tomorrow as the region remains
under the influence of high pressure. Despite the sunshine
across the region this afternoon, temperatures have only warmed
into the single digits and teens as of 1 PM this afternoon. The
cold conditions will continue through the overnight hours, with
a fresh snowpack and mostly clear skies allow for ideal
radiational cooling. Current forecast currently shows overnight
lows dropping to near to below zero areawide, with portions of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom close to -15F, although
these values could change if cloud cover moves into the region
faster than anticipated.

A gradually warming trend is expected during the day tomorrow as
winds become more southerly ahead of a weak shortwave expected to
pass through the region Tuesday night. Channeling in the Champlain
Valley will allow for breezy conditions, with gusts up to 30 mph
possible, while elsewhere gusts will likely remain under 20 mph. The
southerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures compared to today,
with highs in the upper teens and 20s. The shortwave, and any
associated precipitation, will arrive Tuesday evening, with just a
light dusting of snow expected in most locations, with a possible
inch or so expected across the higher terrain and portions of St.
Lawrence County. This system will quickly exit the region by
Wednesday morning, with the next system quickly following behind
for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 119 PM EST Monday...The active period of weather will continue
as another system moves into the region, bringing widespread
precipitation to the region. The latest guidance continues to
support widespread snowfall across the region, with more limited
potential for some rain to mix into the broader valleys during the
afternoon. South winds ahead of the low will allow daytime
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 30s, but given cold
profiles, would anticipate most of the precipitation to fall as
snow. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for portions of
northern New York and areas along the Green Mountains with snowfall
amounts of 4 to 6 inches possible, with locally higher amounts
possible across the summits. Elsewhere, 1 to 4 inches of snowfall
are expected, but trends will need to be monitored as we get closer
as any changes in thermal profiles will likely impact snowfall
accumulations. Hazardous travel conditions will be possible,
especially during the Wednesday evening commute, so any travelers
will need to use caution.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 119 PM EST Monday...Upslope and lake effect snow showers are
expected to linger on Thursday and Thursday night as surface low
pressure pulls northward from the Gulf of St. Lawrence through
Newfoundland and Labrador and flow continues out of the west across
the forecast area. Global deterministic models continue to show
disagreements between one another on location and track of an upper
level low pressure during this period, which could impact how
widespread and persistent the snow showers are. Regardless, snow
should be relatively light and temperatures Thursday and Friday look
to swing back below seasonal normals. Highs forecast in the 20s and
lower 30s, and lows those nights will likely fall back into the
single digits to mid teens.

Temperatures keep trending downwards into the weekend and early next
week under moderate cold air advection with highs only reaching the
mid teens to lower 20s and lows getting down as low as negative
single digits above and below zero. Model consensus is not super
strong during this period either pertaining to our next quick
clipper type system that could bring additional snowfall to the
region, and the timing and track of the system would also impact the
timing and strength of cold air. It`s difficult to identify the
clipper system itself on model solutions, and it may come down to
more orographically enhanced snow showers with an upper shortwave
than a real defined surface feature.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...TAF challenge in the next 6 hours will
be if some low stratus clouds could develop at BTV/MPV or EFK
and produce localized intervals of IFR cigs. Crntly temp dwpts
spread is large, but GOES 19 nighttime microphysics imagery
shows some lake enhanced clouds building over the
central/southern Lake Champlain area at this time. Given this
development have tempo`d btwn 09-12z 2SM BR BKN004, to cover
this probability given satl trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevail with developing south/southwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 15
to 25 knots likely after 15z today. A band of light snow with
mvfr vis and vfr cigs develops after 00z across our northern NY
taf sites and spreads into VT toward 03z Weds.

Outlook...

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV