842
FXUS61 KBTV 090638
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
138 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cold start to the morning, temperatures will quickly rise
today as southerly flow develops. Widespread light snowfall will
move through tomorrow into tomorrow night, with accumulations
generally expected to be in the two to five inch range. The colder
and active pattern will continue into next week with a few
additional chances for snow, though no big snowstorms are expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...Mostly ideal radiational conditions have
developed tonight, causing temperatures to drop quickly. Everywhere
outside the areas immediately along Lake Champlain have fallen below
0, with many areas outside the broad valleys around and below -10.
Temperatures will drop a few more degrees in most places before the
night is over. While southerly flow will begin to develop late in
the night, it should not have a significant effect on impeding the
radiational cooling. While this cold is uncommon for the time of
year, it is not unprecedented. Plattsburgh looks to have broken two
record lows already. It was -11 right at 1159/1200, breaking the -7
record on 12/08 and the -10 record on 12/09. The cold temperatures
and relatively light winds have allowed a lake cloud to develop on
the mostly unfrozen Lake Champlain. It has formed over the southern
waters and it will gradually expand northward as the night goes on.
It may move into areas adjacent to the lake in the early morning.
Increased southerly flow and associated mixing/drying, along with
warming temperatures, should cause it to dissipate during the day.
An area of warm air advection aloft will move through this evening
and cause a period of light snow. Very dry low levels will likely
cause a lot of it to evaporate before it reaches the ground, but
there should still be some very light snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...A quick moving storm system moves through
Wednesday and Wednesday night, tracking up the St. Lawrence Valley.
Warm air advection should cause a quick period of moderate to heavy
snow on the front end. Here, snowfall rates could briefly reach
around an inch per hour. The snow will become lighter for the rest
of the day and into the night, and a dry slot moves in for the
evening. Strong southwesterly winds will cause downsloping and
mostly end the precipitation in the Champlain and Connecticut
valleys in the afternoon. Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range are
possible in the Champlain Valley as enough of a southerly component
and an inversion below ridgetops should allow for efficient
channeling. Temperatures will rise slightly above freezing in the
broad valleys, but steep lapse rates should mostly keep the
precipitation snow. As the center of the low passes to the east,
northwest flow develops and it should cause a brief period of
upslope snow Wednesday night. Overall, totals in the two to five
inch range are generally expected. The lake effect band should stay
to the south of our northern New York zones, though the moisture
will still enhance totals in the central and southern Greens. Drier
conditions should prevail during the day Thursday, but moisture
looks to back down from the north and reinvigorate the upslope snow
in the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 137 AM EST Tuesday...Primary highlights for the long term
include upslope snow showers on Thurs night into Friday, another
light snow event on the weekend, followed by another very cold
airmass late Sunday into early next week. First item wl be a classic
upslope fluff event on Thurs night into Friday, as progged 850mb
temps fall btwn -12F and -20F with lingering 925mb to 500mb rh >70%.
Latest GFS/ECMWF show the closed 700/500mb circulation becoming
vertically stacked just north of the International Border, which
should promote favorable 925mb to 850mb winds of 25 to 40 knots,
resulting in additional upslope accumulating snowfall thru Thurs
night. Have bumped pops into the high likely range for Thurs night
with additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of fluff, but
localized 4 to 6 inches possible from Mansfield to Jay Peak. We will
continue to monitor depth of moisture to fine tune snowfall amounts,
but moderately strong caa should help squeeze out remaining moisture
in the mtns. Next fast moving clipper like system associated with
positively tilted mid/upper lvl trof arrives late Sat into Sun. Did
note the 00z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive with sharpening trof and
develops a slightly stronger area of sfc low pres along the mid
Atlantic into southern New England. The GFS/UKMET and CMC show more
of a clipper like system with a period of light snow late Sat into
Sunday, followed by another very cold airmass late Sunday into early
next week. This airmass looks to be associated with bitterly cold
wind chill values as progged 850mb temps drop btwn -22F and -25F
with gusty northwest winds. Cold headlines are likely needed for
Sunday night into Monday. This wl be an advection type of cold on
Sunday night, followed by radiational cooling on Monday night into
Tues with building sfc high pres. Given latest trends additional
lowering of temps is likely on Sunday through Tuesday of next week,
where highs may struggle to reach 10F in many spots on Monday, with
values well below zero again on both Sunday and Monday nights. Cold
air wl help to squeeze out a few upslope snow showers on Sunday into
Sunday night, before column becomes too dry.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...TAF challenge in the next 6 hours will
be if some low stratus clouds could develop at BTV/MPV or EFK
and produce localized intervals of IFR cigs. Crntly temp dwpts
spread is large, but GOES 19 nighttime microphysics imagery
shows some lake enhanced clouds building over the
central/southern Lake Champlain area at this time. Given this
development have tempo`d btwn 09-12z 2SM BR BKN004, to cover
this probability given satl trends. Otherwise, VFR conditions
prevail with developing south/southwest 10 to 15 knots gusts 15
to 25 knots likely after 15z today. A band of light snow with
mvfr vis and vfr cigs develops after 00z across our northern NY
taf sites and spreads into VT toward 03z Weds.

Outlook...

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological
station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period
of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do
not currently have an estimated return to service for this
station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of
Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds
significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Taber
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV