722
FXUS61 KBTV 261839
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
139 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front moves through this evening, bringing a line of
showers. Lake effect snow begins over northern New York after its
passage and continues through Thursday night. It transitions to
upslope snow for the Greens and Adirondacks Friday into Friday
night. Mostly dry weather prevails Saturday before the next storm
system arrives on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EST Wednesday...A cold front is rapidly approaching from
the west, and it will pass through the region this evening and
tonight. Before its passage, there will be showers and periods of
mist and drizzle as a warm front will be to our south. A brief break
into the warm sector is possible this afternoon where a few periods
of sun and quickly warming temperatures are possible. Temperatures
are expected to rise into the fifties in most places.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will quickly fall, initiating a
lake effect snow event. Southwesterly winds Thursday and Thursday
night will send it into St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. A trough
will swing through late Thursday night and shift winds to
northwesterly, and quickly send the band south of the region. In the
band, heavy snowfall rates of 1+ inches per hour are expected in
localized areas, but its residence time over a specific area should
be limited. Marginal surface temperatures in the St. Lawrence Valley
will also limit accumulations. Overall, for the lake effect portion,
3-7 inches are expected in the most favored areas of St. Lawrence
Counties, and 2-4 in the adjacent areas.

Behind the cold front, strong winds will develop as a low-level jet
moves through and cold air advection helps keep conditions mixed.
Gusts between 20 to 35 mph are expected in most areas, with locally
higher gusts possible in the St. Lawrence Valley due to channeling
and the far northern Adirondacks due to downsloping. As the front
moves through this evening, a brief period of downsloping is looking
likely across the eastern Adirondacks, where brief gusts between 30-
40 mph are possible. Winds will be quite strong on Lake Champlain
with gusts above 40 mph possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM EST Wednesday...As the flow becomes northwest heading
into Friday, moist cyclonic flow continues, setting off an upslope
event. These snow showers will continue into Friday night, where 2-6
inches are expected in the typical areas. The highest totals will be
in the areas around Jay Peak. Unblocked flow will favor the most
snow falling around and immediately downwind of the summits. The
strong wind gusts will continue into Friday night, where gusts
between 20-35 mph are again possible. The combination of the strong
winds and dropping temperatures will cause wind chills to drop into
the single digits and teens Friday night, but the winds and cloud
cover will keep temperatures in the upper teens and twenties for
most places.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 138 PM EST Wednesday...The weekend looks to start off generally
dry with winds weakening Saturday afternoon as our flow briefly
becomes zonal and from the west which is not conducive for
channeling, hence the weakening winds. Some clearing will be
possible in the deeper valleys Saturday afternoon, but clouds will
increase Saturday night with the approach of the next system on
Sunday. A surface low associated with a longwave will swing
southwest to northeast beginning Sunday morning. Winds will become
southerly with modest waa. Temperatures will rise to the mid 30s to
low 40s on Sunday. The surface low will deepen to our north with
wind gusts increasing in south to north oriented valleys with
channeling. There is a 60-70% chance of gusts over 25 mph in the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley during the day Sunday.
Precipitation will be hard to come by with this system as it will be
racing to the northeast in association with a strong jet streak.
This may likely become a high PoP/low QPF event. Temperatures will
be marginal with mountains barely hanging onto freezing values, with
the valleys warming above freezing. Consequently, ptypes will likely
be some wet flakes in the mountains, with mainly rain in the valleys
with just a few wet flakes possible. Showers will be the most
widespread Sunday night, across portions of southern Vermont and
near the Connecticut River Valley where the best frontogenesis and
moisture advection will be. The best chances of any snow
accumulations will be in the Adirondacks early Monday morning as
temperatures rapidly fall behind the system switching rain to snow.

Snow showers will be transition to more upslope based into Monday
morning across the western faces of the Adirondacks. Showers across
the area will taper off Monday afternoon with brief high pressure.
Under the high Monday night, temperatures will fall into the low to
mid teens, with perhaps single digits in the cold hollows of the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures will remain
cold with additional precipitation chances into mid week next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...A wide variety of categories are impacting
terminals with low clouds and showers ahead of two fronts for today.
A warm front will continue to lift north this afternoon with low
level moisture keeping ceilings generally below 1000ft agl outside
of PBG and RUT. Downsloping at PBG has scattered most low level
clouds out and less low level moisture has limited RUT to 1600ft agl
at this time. A small area of clearing in the northeastern may
briefly allow for some brief improvements in ceilings at PBG/BTv,
however this will be short lived with satellite showing lower and
thicker clouds pushing north ahead of the warm front which is
currently in the Mohawk Valley of New York. Drizzle and light
showers will continue with low-moderate confidence in occasional 2-
3SM vsbys at all terminals. By 23Z at MSS, a strong cold front will
push east with brief 1-2 hour IFR ceilings and vsbys possible, based
on observations upstream. The cold front will move east to BTV by 00-
02Z, and EFK by 03-05Z. Winds will also be shifting to the south by
20Z, and then southwest behind the cold front increasing rapidly
with and behind the front. Winds will gust at MSS/SLK/PBG up to 30
to 35 kts by 12Z. Winds will generally be 25-30 at the VT terminals.
Lastly, ceilings will rapidly improve towards VFR with the cold
frontal passage. Terminals in VT will generally see VFR tomorrow
with MVFR ceilings and snow returning to MSS/SLK beginning early
tomorrow morning as a lake effect band develops off Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Definite
SHSN, Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance SHSN.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at Colchester Reef will likely leave it
inoperable for an extended period of time. Use extra caution
when navigating the broad waters, and please contact us if you
observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for NYZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for NYZ030.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday
     for NYZ087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Danzig
AVIATION...Danzig
EQUIPMENT...Team BTV